ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[clfenwi]

Derek,in past systems you talked about sometimes strong systems go more west and weak ones go north.What do you say about 94L?

I have a feeling he will say strong means more of a recurve possibility (Bermuda threat???), weak means more west.......

Although, if you look at the BAM suite, the shallow BAM is the northern-most, while the deep and medium BAMs are further south.

[Bocadude85]

So is this moving to the NW now?

[cycloneye]

So is this moving to the NW now?

WNW at 295 degrees per Bam models at 00 UTC.

[Derek Ortt]

Derek,in past systems you talked about sometimes strong systems go more west and weak ones go north.What do you say about 94L?

weak means west this time, with the low level flow

[Lurker]

Just curious....are your chances still near 0 at this time?

Last night we had some convection caused by this system interacting with a UL that was clearly shown on the shear map. There was some evidence of maybe an mlc.

This afternoon it looks horrible. Chances of development in the next 24-36 hours are near zero in my opinion.

['CaneFreak]

So is this moving to the NW now?

WNW at 295 degrees per Bam models at 00 UTC.

right, the circulation is trying to reform to the NW...but the whole system is moving to the wnw...

[jinftl]

An invest that has been struggling for days to even close off a circulation is 'strong'.....what would a weak system be?

94L is looking a bit better but this is in no way 'ramping up'. The shear map reminds us of that.

In the world of 'relatively speaking', Bill was the strong system more prone to recurving and 94L is the wnw trakker. In fact, he may bend back to the west per several models which show him not building much latitude west of 60W. Gaining latitude now may ultimately result in a system moving north of....not be ripped apart over...hispanola.

Derek,in past systems you talked about sometimes strong systems go more west and weak ones go north.What do you say about 94L?

I have a feeling he will say strong means more of a recurve possibility (Bermuda threat???), weak means more west.......

[wxman57]

I wouldn't get too excited yet. The 00Z position is still about 100 mils SW of that convective burst. You won't be able to tell much at all using IR imagery tonight. You have to use a combination of visible imagery and actual surface obs to determine what's really happening. Surface obs from the two buoys in the area don't indicate much happening yet (like LLC reforming northeast). Certainly not a TD now. Maybe tomorrow. The convective burst is impressive, anyway.

Too late, Im excited

I told you to wait.

Well, I think that the NHC will wait until morning to take a good look at visible imagery before doing anything, which means a full night's sleep for me. Off to bed.

[BensonTCwatcher]

No, Derek has repeatedly said (and every other met I have seen here) weak (or shallow) systems are steered by lower level flow versus stronger (deeper) systems are steered at higher level flows. It all depends on which way the prevailing wind is flowing at a given atmospheric height. Most of the time, weaker systems are caught in the westerly flow nearer the surface, but they could also be NW or N depending on longitude.

Correct me if I am wrong

[Scorpion]

LLC will definitely form under that convection

['CaneFreak]

No, Derek has repeatedly said (and every other met I have seen here) weak (or shallow) systems are steered by lower level flow versus stronger (deeper) systems are steered at higher level flows. It all depends on which way the prevailing wind is flowing at a given atmospheric height. Most of the time, weaker systems are caught in the westerly flow nearer the surface, but they could also be NW or N depending on longitude.

Correct me if I am wrong

Absolutely....to put it more plainly, the stronger the system the more vertical depth it takes up in the atmosphere....thus the need to figure out the steering flow in the upper levels in order to determine in which direction the system will move...however, for most systems the 500 mb flow will work....it is usually a good level for most systems unless they are extremely weak or extremely strong...

[hurricanetrack]

If this thing really is out there for another 200+ hours as some models show, this thread could set a record. Poor us. People are upset, tired and impatient waiting on this thing to develop. Not everyone, but people in general. Hang in there, it was still there when I got up THIS morning and it should still be there tomorrow- and stronger too! I put in a good word for Ben Linus to pass along to Jacob that we really need an upgrade here to help calm "the others". Let's see if destiny calls.

[jinftl]

Correct. I guess the question becomes, is 94L considered weak and prone to lower level steering or strong and prone to higher level steering. In terms of organization, this is definitely a prime contender to be steered by the low level flow.....as the track-to-date and especially the model forecasts suggest.

No, Derek has repeatedly said (and every other met I have seen here) weak (or shallow) systems are steered by lower level flow versus stronger (deeper) systems are steered at higher level flows. It all depends on which way the prevailing wind is flowing at a given atmospheric height. Most of the time, weaker systems are caught in the westerly flow nearer the surface, but they could also be NW or N depending on longitude.

Correct me if I am wrong

[jinftl]

Folks shouldn't be that hard up for development, i mean we did see 4 named storms, including one cat 4, in the last couple of weeks. Not to mention, the near Cat 5 south of Baja.

If this thing really is out there for another 200+ hours as some models show, this thread could set a record. Poor us. People are upset, tired and impatient waiting on this thing to develop. Not everyone, but people in general. Hang in there, it was still there when I got up THIS morning and it should still be there tomorrow- and stronger too! I put in a good word for Ben Linus to pass along to Jacob that we really need an upgrade here to help calm "the others". Let's see if destiny calls.

[HURAKAN]

First time in a long time that strong convection lasts during the entire day

[BensonTCwatcher]

No doubt this is stacking up. I would bet the morning visibles confirm the LLC under the convection if it hasn't already done so.

[GeneratorPower]

Just to put that giant thunderstorm complex in perspective...the area showing "black" on the IR-channel 4 picture below is approximately 1 degree of LATITUDE and 1 degree of LONGITUDE in size. This is approximately equal to a SINGLE THUNDERSTORM that COVERS AN AREA 70 MILES WIDE BY 70 MILES LONG. That's BIG.



EDIT: Added annotations.

[Ivanhater]

[Sanibel]

No look back

[jinftl]

Impressive.....but the question is, do we have a closed-off circulation? Cloud tops will warm and cool during the day, the key to this system is the need to be developing a closed circulation, not fighting the shear as much, and getting vertically stacked.

Living in South Florida, we see very impressive thunderstorm complexes from time to time....but that doesn't make them developing hurricanes. That said, we may see a td tomorrow. But 3 days from invest to td doesn't equate to rapid intensification.

(but it may well end up being that her slow-to-organize nature is what buys her ticket west)

Just to put that giant thunderstorm complex in perspective...the area showing "black" on the IR-channel 4 picture below is approximately 1 degree of LATITUDE and 1 degree of LONGITUDE in size. This is approximately equal to a SINGLE THUNDERSTORM that COVERS AN AREA 70 MILES WIDE BY 70 MILES LONG. That's BIG.