ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Vortex]

00z NAM rollling in

At H+36 very near if not over the northern Leewards..


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036l.gif

H+42 passing just north of the leewards heading generally west.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042l.gif

H+60 organized and just ne of PR. Heading w-wnw..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

[GeneratorPower]

Impressive.....but the question is, do we have a closed-off circulation? Cloud tops will warm and cool during the day, the key to this system is the need to be developing a closed circulation, not fighting the shear as much, and getting vertically stacked.

Living in South Florida, we see very impressive thunderstorm complexes from time to time....but that doesn't make them developing hurricanes.

Convection like that will help to FORM an LLC and tighten the system up. Convection, feeding on warm moist air is what causes tropical systems to grow.

[storms NC]

No, Derek has repeatedly said (and every other met I have seen here) weak (or shallow) systems are steered by lower level flow versus stronger (deeper) systems are steered at higher level flows. It all depends on which way the prevailing wind is flowing at a given atmospheric height. Most of the time, weaker systems are caught in the westerly flow nearer the surface, but they could also be NW or N depending on longitude.

Correct me if I am wrong

Absolutely....to put it more plainly, the stronger the system the more vertical depth it takes up in the atmosphere....thus the need to figure out the steering flow in the upper levels in order to determine in which direction the system will move...however, for most systems the 500 mb flow will work....it is usually a good level for most systems unless they are extremely weak or extremely strong...

Danny was very weak but still went NW to N to NE. So weak really don't have that much to do with it going west. More on steering and troughs etc...

[bevgo]

Is this an invest any longer?

[Kingarabian]

Isnt this thing getting sheared up a little as of now?

[deltadog03]

well, if it looks like this in 6-12 hours then it will prolly skip TD status. VERY impressive blow up. Is there a LLC don't really know yet.

[Sanibel]

The models should grab it better now.


Total guess: Carolinas.

[Evil Jeremy]

Isnt this thing getting sheared up a little as of now?

Apparently so. The shear has died down this evening.

[Derek Ortt]

if this large area of storms were to quickly dissipate, the thing is toast. There would be too much surface divergence for this to overcome. Something to watch for during the overnight hours

['CaneFreak]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

HMMMM...looking at the latest 200mb vorticity map reveals an interesting tidbit...the Upper Low is fragmenting on the eastern side!!! HMMMMMM....what kind of implications might that have? Pro mets comments are welcomed...

[GeneratorPower]

Isnt this thing getting sheared up a little as of now?

It would be easier to see with a daytime, visible satellite shot. But you can see some of it on the IR. Look for clouds that seem to stream away from the system at high speed. I was looking at the loops earlier and it seemed that the shear had relaxed a little bit. In fact, I believe the relaxation is what enabled the current burst of convection.

[southerngale]

It's disappeared from the map above... that usually means something is either being dropped or is being upgraded/downgraded, etc. It's still showing Invest on NRL, however.

[jinftl]

As of last reporting, the estimated center was at 15.4N 54.3W.....on the southern edge of the ball of convection.....not saying reformation of the center further north is not possible (although has anyone seen the current shear map), but realizing the center is on the edge of this impressive ball changes my interpretation of the image for sure....

[gatorcane]

00z NAM rollling in

At H+36 very near if not over the northern Leewards..


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036l.gif

H+42 passing just north of the leewards heading generally west.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042l.gif

Trending south some yet again but yet with pretty decent development here. What do you think cycloneye in Puerto Rico?

[cycloneye]

It's disappeared from the map above... that has always meant something was either dropped or is being upgraded/downgraded, etc. It's still showing Invest on NRL, however.

Also best track has not renumbered yet from 94L to AL06.

[Evil Jeremy]

It's disappeared from the map above... that has always meant something was either dropped or is being upgraded/downgraded, etc. It's still showing Invest on NRL, however.

I doubt it would be downgraded when at code red and convection like this taking place.

[artist]

It's disappeared from the map above... that has always meant something was either dropped or is being upgraded/downgraded, etc. It's still showing Invest on NRL, however.

it may have disappeared due to marshall clearing the cache trying to get Jimena to show as a cat 4 that she is rather than a cat 5 it had. Go see the thread about this for more info.
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=106427

[jinftl]

why? the center is not under the mass of thunderstorms. Buoy reports do not suggest the center reforming further north. Not sure that a blow-up of thunderstorms will alter the models much until we get a closed circulation.

The models should grab it better now.


Total guess: Carolinas.

[Ivanhater]

I don't see it moving to much further north in the near term

[jinftl]

Hispanola may deliver the k.o. punch at this rate.....

00z NAM rollling in

At H+36 very near if not over the northern Leewards..


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036l.gif

H+42 passing just north of the leewards heading generally west.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042l.gif

Trending south some yet again but yet with pretty decent development here. What do you think cycloneye in Puerto Rico?