ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Blown Away]

looks like it is slowing down and drifting north now....quite interesting.

Gator, what view are you looking at, I was thinking Ida was speeding up towards the NW??

[Aric Dunn]

Well looky looky ... darn the shear is just not there...

[cycloneye]

Check out the latest conditions on Cayman Brac..........Hmmm
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MWCB.html

I merged your topic that you made with the main thread for Ida because only threads for Invests and Tropical Cyclones are allowed in this forum.

[xironman]

12 Canadian..OUCH!

Then it blows it up as some hybrid/northeaster off Hatteras

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071726
AF306 0211A IDA HDOB 26 20091107
171900 1708N 08456W 8429 01561 0092 +165 +133 270014 015 027 000 00
171930 1708N 08454W 8430 01559 0090 +165 +133 273015 016 025 003 00
172000 1708N 08452W 8431 01560 0090 +166 +133 277016 017 026 001 00
172030 1708N 08450W 8428 01562 0089 +169 +133 280017 018 025 002 00
172100 1708N 08448W 8432 01558 0088 +170 +134 282018 019 025 002 00
172130 1709N 08447W 8429 01561 0088 +170 +135 281020 020 023 002 00
172200 1709N 08445W 8429 01561 0088 +170 +136 280020 020 023 002 00
172230 1709N 08445W 8429 01561 0088 +170 +136 280020 021 024 001 00
172300 1709N 08445W 8429 01561 0087 +170 +137 280020 020 025 001 00
172330 1709N 08439W 8429 01562 0088 +166 +138 285020 020 026 000 00
172400 1709N 08437W 8432 01557 0088 +166 +138 287020 020 024 003 00
172430 1709N 08435W 8429 01561 0089 +166 +138 284020 021 025 002 00
172500 1710N 08433W 8430 01559 0089 +165 +137 285020 020 025 001 00
172530 1710N 08431W 8428 01561 0086 +171 +137 283021 022 024 002 00
172600 1710N 08430W 8428 01562 0092 +162 +137 278021 022 023 002 00
172630 1710N 08428W 8431 01557 0091 +164 +138 268022 024 020 005 03
172700 1710N 08426W 8433 01561 0092 +161 +138 262022 023 028 006 00
172730 1709N 08424W 8438 01547 0090 +163 +137 271022 024 027 005 00
172800 1709N 08422W 8429 01560 0090 +164 +136 271021 023 019 003 00
172830 1709N 08420W 8433 01557 0089 +163 +135 263023 024 017 004 00
$$
;

[gatorcane]

12Z GFDL brings Ida to nearly all of FL with a Panhandle graze and then a trip down the peninsula exiting the SE Coast of FL as a TS. Yeah right

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Evil Jeremy]

12z GFDL, Cat 2 landfall on Panhandle, and a second strong TS landfall around the big bend area:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[tolakram]

First sign of an eye, or just an overshoot.

[cycloneye]

Another ouch to Panhandle this from 12z GFDL.

[littlevince]

[Aric Dunn]

First sign of an eye, or just an overshoot.

was just about to say that.. its looks to be the start but still has little ways to go .. last microwave suggest a inncore starting to set up only a matter of time.. at this rate and hurricane close to major strong cat 2 is possible...

[gatorcane]

and we were doubting the GFDL and HWRF of a major cane out of this all week weren't we? They could verify it looks like. Then again the NHC was doubting them also. I guess they are hurricane models for a reason....

[tolakram]

It's interesting how shear is supposed to be 25kts from the SW, but the convection is strongest on the SW side.

[xironman]

Looks like the GDFL is initializing to weak.

[Frank2]

Still, South Florida is under a solid 20-30 kts of easterly flow at all reporting stations, so it'd make sense that Ida should make some sort of NW turn fairly soon - that or it might meander down there for a time, similar to Wilma before the trough arrives, but I'll guess and say that it won't and will likely make at least a temporary turn to the NW before heading NNE, once the ridge beings to move northeastward, since this isn't a COL type of environment that would allow for meandering - not with the strong high to the northeast...

[MGC]

Who would have thought Hurricane Kate in 1985 would hit the panhandle with 95mph winds? Happened before it can happen again.....MGC

[Ivanhater]

Wow..112 mph approaching the Pensacola area

[Aric Dunn]

It's interesting how shear is supposed to be 25kts from the SW, but the convection is strongest on the SW side.

Thats the interesting part about very divergent "shear" environments.

[Evil Jeremy]

I need to go, someone else please take over:

000
URNT15 KNHC 071736
AF306 0211A IDA HDOB 27 20091107
172900 1708N 08418W 8426 01562 0090 +163 +135 266021 022 019 003 00
172930 1708N 08416W 8431 01560 0091 +163 +135 271021 022 023 002 00
173000 1708N 08414W 8427 01561 0091 +162 +136 267019 021 022 003 00
173030 1708N 08413W 8428 01559 0092 +160 +136 267020 020 024 002 00
173100 1708N 08411W 8432 01559 0091 +162 +136 261020 021 024 003 00
173130 1708N 08409W 8437 01553 0092 +162 +135 266021 022 026 003 00
173200 1708N 08407W 8429 01562 0092 +163 +133 268019 020 023 002 00
173230 1708N 08405W 8429 01561 0091 +164 +132 261019 020 024 003 00
173300 1708N 08403W 8431 01559 0094 +158 +131 251019 020 025 004 00
173330 1708N 08401W 8429 01560 0092 +161 +130 258020 021 023 001 00
173400 1708N 08359W 8430 01560 0092 +161 +128 252019 019 025 000 00
173430 1708N 08357W 8429 01561 0091 +166 +128 257020 021 023 002 00
173500 1708N 08355W 8429 01561 0090 +166 +129 259018 019 020 003 00
173530 1708N 08354W 8430 01561 0092 +165 +130 253018 019 020 002 00
173600 1708N 08352W 8431 01559 0093 +161 +132 242019 020 024 000 00
173630 1708N 08350W 8430 01560 0093 +161 +133 239020 020 023 002 00
173700 1709N 08348W 8429 01562 0092 +163 +134 239020 020 028 000 00
173730 1709N 08346W 8431 01559 0092 +161 +134 245019 019 030 000 00
173800 1709N 08344W 8425 01565 0091 +162 +135 241021 023 033 000 03
173830 1709N 08342W 8434 01552 0090 +161 +135 243021 023 032 000 00
$$
;

[gatorcane]

Still, South Florida is under a solid 20-30 kts of easterly flow at all reporting stations, so it'd make sense that Ida should make some sort of NW turn fairly soon - that or it might meander down there for a time, similar to Wilma before the trough arrives, but I'll guess and say that it won't and will likely make at least a temporary turn to the NW before heading NNE, once the ridge beings to move northeastward, since this isn't a COL type of environment that would allow for meandering - not with the strong high to the northeast...

Looks at the winds already across South FL, gusts to 30mph at some of the terminals along the SE Coast of FL. Sand Key off of Marathon in the FL Keys has a NE wind gust to 34K....already.

NAPLES MOSUNNY 82 63 52 E23G30 30.06F
W PALM BEACH PTSUNNY 80 55 42 NE20G28 30.12F
FT LAUDER-EXEC PTSUNNY 79 61 53 NE16G28 30.10F
FT LAUDERDALE PTSUNNY 79 62 56 NE22G32 30.08F
POMPANO BEACH PTSUNNY 78 61 55 E17G28 30.10F
PEMBROKE PINES PTSUNNY 80 63 55 NE22G28 30.12F
OPA LOCKA PTSUNNY 80 63 55 E26 30.08F
MIAMI PTSUNNY 79 65 62 NE18G30 30.08F
WEST KENDALL PTSUNNY 82 65 56 E26 30.07F
HOMESTEAD MOSUNNY 80 66 61 E20G28 30.07F
FLAMINGO N/A 79 68 68 NE10G30 N/A