ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[gatorcane]

I noticed Wxman57 has not been around less as of late -- I would guess that means he is consulting with his clients in the Leewards on future 94L.

If a system is not going to threaten any of his clients, usually see alot more posts from him about why it will recurve and not impact anybody.

[southerngale]

It's disappeared from the map above... that has always meant something was either dropped or is being upgraded/downgraded, etc. It's still showing Invest on NRL, however.

I doubt it would be downgraded when at code red and convection like this taking place.

I know. I was naming the reasons something temporarily disappears from the map. I think it's more likely it's being upgraded, BUT nothing on NRL, so maybe not.

[storms NC]

The models should grab it better now.


Total guess: Carolinas.

hush your mouth. or I will wash it out with soap.

[deltadog03]

Atomic 94L??

[gatorcane]

Not if it deepens enough, should pass north of Hispaniola, maybe just skirt it? Who knows, I need to check out the H5 trends to be sure. The H5 ridging is the key here.

[Derek Ortt]

It's disappeared from the map above... that has always meant something was either dropped or is being upgraded/downgraded, etc. It's still showing Invest on NRL, however.

I doubt it would be downgraded when at code red and convection like this taking place.

I know. I was naming the reasons something temporarily disappears from the map. I think it's more likely it's being upgraded, BUT nothing on NRL, so maybe not.

there is nothing on the ATCF

['CaneFreak]

Atomic 94L??

Did you see my comment about the fragmenting upper low on the last page? I was especially curious as to your opinion on what implications it might have...go back to the last page if you did not see it...thanks...

[Evil Jeremy]

I noticed Wxman57 has not been around less as of late -- I would guess that means he is consulting with his clients in the Leewards on future 94L.

If a system is not going to threaten any of his clients, usually see alot more posts from him about why it will recurve and not impact anybody.

Well, I think that the NHC will wait until morning to take a good look at visible imagery before doing anything, which means a full night's sleep for me. Off to bed.

[Sanibel]

Unless there's a shear blast just ahead I assume this persistent improvement speaks for itself.

I also saw the ULL ahead eroding this afternoon.

We haven't seen such good IR and so centered yet this year.

This opens up increased possibilities considering the history of the track ahead at this time of year.

Never the less 2009 has underperformed so far.


I guessed Carolinas because the disturbance has jumped considerably where it could get caught in the CMC recurve.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Although not sure if the center has or is reforming N just yet, the anticyclone aloft combined with the ULL breaking down the SW of the system has helped a lot for development. The anti-cyclone was seen this moring, but not really the ULL. GFS sure didn't catch it.

EDIT: although the wv loop hinted

[JTD]

This system is clearly ramping up this evening in spectacular fashion. I am very impressed. Now we just have to wait and see if we can get a distinct closed circulation and if this can sustain itself. Does anyone think that this has a chance to rapidly strengthen over night? It's satelite appearance tonight is amazing. Of course, we've all seen nice blobs that amount to nothing before but I doubt it this time.

Off to the races.

[rrm]

does this look like it possibly could track into the gom?

['CaneFreak]

Unless there's a shear blast just ahead I assume this persistent improvement speaks for itself.

I also saw the ULL ahead eroding this afternoon.

We haven't seen such good IR and so centered yet this year.

This opens up increased possibilities considering the history of the track ahead at this time of year.

Never the less 2009 has underperformed so far.


I guessed Carolinas because the disturbance has jumped considerably where it could get caught in the CMC recurve.

Underperformed? Why because we have not had a FL threat?

[jinftl]

Latest estimate of center shown in black.....as of now, buoy reports do not suggest the center is reforming north under the convection. If that doesn't happen overnight, this burst will wane and we will be back to the 94L we know.

Even if this burst of convection fades, i still wouldn't write this system off. Most models don't show much in the wave of increased intensity for another 24 hours or so....and even then, a slow ramp-up.

Atomic 94L??

[jinftl]

You asked the same exact question 24 hours ago....it is still way way way too early to know. And no, we won't know by tomorrow night.

does this look like it possibly could track into the gom?

[lonelymike]

I noticed Wxman57 has not been around less as of late -- I would guess that means he is consulting with his clients in the Leewards on future 94L.

If a system is not going to threaten any of his clients, usually see alot more posts from him about why it will recurve and not impact anybody.

Uh....no he said he was going to bed. Where do you come up with these statements?

[BensonTCwatcher]

well not to get too wrapped up, if the convection collapses the outflow at the surface will kill it.

[storms NC]

I lived in Ft Myers Fl from 1969 to 1992 Not one hurricane had hit there. I move up here for the summers and get hit by 6-7 of them. You would have thought I would have been thought more in Fla. But no more here in NC.

[Sanibel]

The black dot isn't at 54W.


The d-max rhythm for this is at around 3-5am.

[lonelymike]

You asked the same exact question 24 hours ago....it is still way way way too early to know. And no, we won't know by tomorrow night.

does this look like it possibly could track into the gom?

Ask it again tomorrow nite and keep on asking. I'm sure jinftl will not mind and is quite happy to keep on answering.