ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Blown Away]

12Z GFDL brings Ida to nearly all of FL with a Panhandle graze and then a trip down the peninsula exiting the SE Coast of FL as a TS. Yeah right

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Ida gonna need to average about 11mph in movement for the Panhandle landfall to verify.

[deltadog03]

I generally like the track and strength of the gfdl, but don't like the dip back SE into the gom. I think, if anything, IDA will ride along the front accross northern florida then up and out to sea.

[wxman57]

looks like it is slowing down and drifting north now....quite interesting.

Gator, what view are you looking at, I was thinking Ida was speeding up towards the NW??

The problem is that there is a lack of a good reference point marking the center. There is convection expanding west and northwestward, but the center is not beneath that convection. Looks less organized than earlier today, as the center is nearly exposed NE of the heavier convection. Here's a satellite shot with the approximate center identified by the red "X".

[littlevince]

[gatorcane]

Wxman I agree its tough to tell without a clear center...but if that X is the center seems to be drifting north....hopefully the ridge kicks it NW soon..so far I don't see it doing it yet. Models are have her initialized moving NW at 10mph+ already.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071746
AF306 0211A IDA HDOB 28 20091107
173900 1710N 08341W 8434 01556 0091 +162 +135 245021 022 033 000 03
173930 1710N 08339W 8432 01557 0090 +163 +135 244022 023 032 000 00
174000 1710N 08337W 8429 01559 0086 +169 +135 241023 023 032 000 00
174030 1710N 08335W 8429 01561 0088 +168 +136 238022 023 032 000 00
174100 1711N 08333W 8432 01557 0089 +167 +136 237021 022 030 000 03
174130 1711N 08331W 8429 01561 0089 +165 +137 227021 021 031 000 03
174200 1711N 08329W 8430 01560 0089 +168 +137 225022 022 030 000 03
174230 1711N 08327W 8429 01560 0087 +168 +138 222024 025 031 000 03
174300 1712N 08325W 8430 01559 0082 +177 +138 217026 027 031 000 00
174330 1712N 08324W 8429 01560 0082 +176 +138 219027 027 031 000 03
174400 1712N 08322W 8429 01559 0085 +174 +139 218026 027 031 000 03
174430 1712N 08320W 8430 01559 0085 +175 +140 217026 026 031 000 03
174500 1713N 08318W 8430 01560 0083 +176 +140 220025 026 032 000 03
174530 1713N 08316W 8430 01560 0084 +175 +141 219025 025 031 000 00
174600 1713N 08314W 8429 01564 0085 +171 +141 218025 026 032 000 03
174630 1713N 08312W 8433 01557 0085 +171 +141 216025 027 026 002 00
174700 1714N 08311W 8430 01560 0087 +170 +141 213024 026 028 003 00
174730 1714N 08309W 8430 01560 0086 +172 +140 215026 026 028 002 00
174800 1714N 08307W 8433 01557 0087 +170 +140 212026 026 030 001 00
174830 1714N 08305W 8429 01561 0086 +170 +140 210024 026 029 000 00
$$
;

[Blown Away]

Great illustration Wxman, so the center is actually moving a little East of the forecast points?

[cycloneye]

70 mph

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
100 PM EST SAT NOV 07 2009

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND IDA STRONGER...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE
OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WESTERN
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT
230 MILES...370 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 230
MILES...370 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IDA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT BUT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER IDA ENTERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY NORTH FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

...SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.5N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI/BLAKE

[cycloneye]

...SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.5N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

[gatorcane]

Great illustration Wxman, so the center is actually moving a little East of the forecast points?

Yes she is east of the current forecast point.....and moving N at 9mph according to the last advisory. She should be moving NW based on what the models are doing with her.

[littlevince]

[brunota2003]

looks like when they shoot NW for another pass, they might be passing through the deepest convection...and I think they'll find readings the highest there.

[Aric Dunn]

...SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.5N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

That sounds about right.. looks like they are going to have to up it in there forecast to a hurricane now at the 4pm...

[Ivanhater]

HWRF strenghtens in the gulf, bout 100 mph approaching the North Central Gulfcoast.



Hurricane conditions approaching the coast

[HouTXmetro]

Thoughts on BOC low and any affect on IDA? Although void of any good convection it's really starting to wind up and conditions appear to be momentarily improving.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[Aric Dunn]

I love when they do rapid fire satellite images just watch the full 30 images http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

full zoom .. just give a whole new perspective on the evolution of the cloud structure..

[Blown Away]

If Ida slows down in the NW Caribbean gotta think that ENE hook will occur further south.

[btangy]

I happen to be in Playa Del Carmen, MX for a friend's wedding currently. Have limited internet access so getting information in bits. Rain has picked up yesterday and we're getting showers with some 20-30mph gusts in them about once an hour. Doesn't seem to be much concern right now, but might get quite wild around here tomorrow, especially if the current strengthening trend and forecast track holds. Will update conditions when I can.

[wxman57]

That position is toward the lower left of that X on my satellite image. Just a hair west of 84W now.

[cycloneye]

I happen to be in Playa Del Carmen, MX for a friend's wedding currently. Have limited internet access so getting information in bits. Rain has picked up yesterday and we're getting showers with some 20-30mph gusts in them about once an hour. Doesn't seem to be much concern right now, but might get quite wild around here tomorrow, especially if the current strengthening trend and forecast track holds. Will update conditions when I can.

Be safe there my friend.About posting observations from there,you can post them at the thread with a sticky at the top of forum as its for that.We do this to not cluter this main discussion thread too much.

Link to Observations and preparations thread.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=106995&p=1941788#p1941788