ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

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jinftl
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Re: Re:

#1781 Postby jinftl » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:40 pm

You don't think him not being on the board to discuss 94L isn't an indication of the level of threat....and consequently, imminent preparation, that is required, thus making him understandably absent?

The lack of posters from the Gulf Coast must mean the same thing.

:wink:

lonelymike wrote:
gatorcane wrote:I noticed Wxman57 has not been around less as of late -- I would guess that means he is consulting with his clients in the Leewards on future 94L.

If a system is not going to threaten any of his clients, usually see alot more posts from him about why it will recurve and not impact anybody.

Uh....no he said he was going to bed. Where do you come up with these statements? :eek:
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#1782 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:42 pm

My opinion...not official...blah blah blah.....

If this rapidly deepends, wouldn't it potentially help to build up the strength of the High above it, helping to prog it westward? As long as it doesn't outrace the encroaching high, it should stay on a wnw to w path. IF it slows down some, especially if fighting the high to the north although it wants to go poleward, then that would allow for the breakdown of the trough that is supposed to be coming across teh east coast and "protecting" from a storm. In the 7+ day timeframe, the HPC site shows it deteriorating and dissappearing as teh high oozes into the southeast US. It makes it seem like the furthest north this storm could get is SC. Possibly even a WSW path into the conus near the end of its run. --that is if it takes its sweet time and the trough dissipates rather than remains strong. A strong trough will send it into recurve. A non-existant one will put the storm on a path along the periphery of the high pressure as it seeks an eventual northward path.
A path like Frances, or was it Jeanne? comes to mind.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#1783 Postby storms NC » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:42 pm

lonelymike wrote:
jinftl wrote:You asked the same exact question 24 hours ago....it is still way way way too early to know. And no, we won't know by tomorrow night.

:wink:

rrm wrote:does this look like it possibly could track into the gom?



Ask it again tomorrow nite and keep on asking till ya get a polite answer. :roll:


This is the best I can do for you. Sorry but it is really way to early to know the aswer to that. But this may help. Please read.
Have a good night

Hurricane center closely watching tropical wave
BY CURTIS MORGAN
cmorgan@MiamiHerald.com
A large, well-organized tropical wave that appears likely to become the season's fifth tropical storm, Erika, continued to move toward the Windward Islands on Monday.

Forecasters put the odds of the wave strengthening into a tropical depression in the next few days at better than 50 percent.

``Right now, it looks really impressive on satellite images,'' said Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the National Hurricane Center in Miami. ``We've had some flare ups of showers and thunderstorms today.''

At 2 p.m., the center was tracking the storm moving west-northwest at 15 mph about 500 miles east of the chain of Caribbean islands that make up the Windwards. The path immediately ahead was only ``marginally favorable'' for development for the next day or so -- in part because of a low pressure system off the Bahamas that is producing some wind shear.

Computer models vary widely on the system's projected path, Feltgen said, and it was too far away to predict whether it would pose a threat to Florida or the East Coast.

``We're going to be watching this thing closely,'' he said.
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Re: Re:

#1784 Postby lonelymike » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:43 pm

jinftl wrote:You don't think him not being on the board to discuss 94L isn't an indication of the level of threat....and consequently, imminent preparation, that is required, thus making him understandably absent?

The lack of posters from the Gulf Coast must mean the same thing.

:wink:

lonelymike wrote:
gatorcane wrote:I noticed Wxman57 has not been around less as of late -- I would guess that means he is consulting with his clients in the Leewards on future 94L.

If a system is not going to threaten any of his clients, usually see alot more posts from him about why it will recurve and not impact anybody.

Uh....no he said he was going to bed. Where do you come up with these statements? :eek:



Naa we have Ivanlover here to represent us now that Ed is gone. He's preparing to chain himself to the bar at the Floribama and ride out the next big one that hits the Pensacola area. :cheesy:
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Re: Re:

#1785 Postby SkeetoBite » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:44 pm

jinftl wrote:You don't think him not being on the board to discuss 94L isn't an indication of the level of threat....and consequently, imminent preparation, that is required, thus making him understandably absent?

The lack of posters from the Gulf Coast must mean the same thing.

:wink:


As long as I don't post, it won't come here. That's my scientific reasoning at least :wink:

Not liking the trend in the models- even though they are early, they keep pushing West.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#1786 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:46 pm

Hey now...we're Gulf Coasters. And our local weather guys are already watching this too. They are drawing attention to it so that we know about it BEFORE the long holiday weekend so it hopefully doesn't catch anyone off guard. Nobody is paying much attention yet. They should. This could be a big one...it only takes 1 to make a season memorable. 1992???
(certainly not saying it is coming to my area! -but a cross state journey is not out of the realm of possibility)
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Re: Re:

#1787 Postby jinftl » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:46 pm

the trend is so much west now that hispanola could be more of an obstacle to this intensifying than anything. So many days of models and trends to oscillate back and forth left...assuming we have a system to track.

SkeetoBite wrote:
jinftl wrote:You don't think him not being on the board to discuss 94L isn't an indication of the level of threat....and consequently, imminent preparation, that is required, thus making him understandably absent?

The lack of posters from the Gulf Coast must mean the same thing.

:wink:


As long as I don't post, it won't come here. That's my scientific reasoning at least :wink:

Not liking the trend in the models- even though they are early, they keep pushing West.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#1788 Postby lonelymike » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:49 pm

Big cold front supposed to come off the east coast this weekend. That should take care of any gulf coast concerns 8-) ...uh we hope :eek:
Last edited by lonelymike on Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#1789 Postby TheBurn » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:50 pm

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#1790 Postby Weatherboy1 » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:50 pm

that is some serious convection firing off here. Hard to imagine there's not an LLC that has formed under their somewhere. I guess the safe thing is to wait til first visible imagery before upgrading, but I'll be darned if that's not a TD already.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#1791 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:50 pm

It's not always true, but beware systems that burst black IR while under hostile conditions and struggling. It sometimes reveals energy.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#1792 Postby jinftl » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:53 pm

Given that reaching 70W by Saturday night would be the furthest west pretty much any model shows, it wouldn't be for another 5 days or so after that this could even be in the gulf.....well after the holiday weekend.

By 'big one', do you mean disappointment? Just so some folks (esp the newbies) here don't take your words as the green light needed to go into panic mode, i am quite sure you mean that the probability of this being 'the one' is really really low right now, right? It isn't even a depression yet....my ceiling fan is producing stronger winds right now.

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:Hey now...we're Gulf Coasters. And our local weather guys are already watching this too. They are drawing attention to it so that we know about it BEFORE the long holiday weekend so it hopefully doesn't catch anyone off guard. Nobody is paying much attention yet. They should. This could be a big one...it only takes 1 to make a season memorable. 1992???
(certainly not saying it is coming to my area! -but a cross state journey is not out of the realm of possibility)
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#1793 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:53 pm

Nam finishing up with the continued trend of further south

Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#1794 Postby Orrie » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:56 pm

thats the healthiest "invest" I have ever seen
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#1795 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:56 pm

wow the NAM like the BAMD is taking this thing west even when it is a developed, deep system. Quite interesting. Still looks like some lower heights there across the Bahamas and SE US...so maybe a turn away from the Bahamas and CONUS starts to happen soon
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:57 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#1796 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:56 pm

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010101
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
901 PM AST MON AUG 31 2009

.DISCUSSION...CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AROUND 54 WEST THIS EVENING. CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THE HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO GIVE A HIGH CHANCE
OF IT BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...
BUT DO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY THURSDAY...WITH A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY DRY DAYS AHEAD
OF THIS AREA OF WEATHER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED
FORECAST THIS EVENING AS IT REMAINS IN LINE WITH LATEST THINKING.

&&

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL RAISE OR
ELIMINATE CEILINGS SUCH THAT ALL STATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
TONIGHT. VFR WILL CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WIND SHIFT FROM ESE TO ENE WILL CAUSE
CONVECTION TO SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE ISLAND AFT
01/18Z. EXPECT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJMZ BTWN 01/17Z AND
01/22Z...AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#1797 Postby lonelymike » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:56 pm

It's the freakin NAM for heaven's sake :lol: Put that and the GFS on a map and throw darts. You'd probably get a more accurate track than what these two pieces of junk have been putting out lately. :spam:
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#1798 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:59 pm

Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#1799 Postby jinftl » Mon Aug 31, 2009 10:01 pm

Folks waiting for the recurve to nw and north may be waiting a long time.....there is some pretty good consensus for this making a hard left in 48 hours or so. Trend continues more and more west.....even the outlier models are trending west.

Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#1800 Postby dixiebreeze » Mon Aug 31, 2009 10:05 pm

What are they waiting for? Will they go directly to a TS? This thing looks awesome right now.
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