ATL : INVEST 93L

[Nederlander]

I apologize in advance if this is already explained somewhere, but I didnt find any discussion on it. can someone shed some light on the potential steering of this thing once it enters the gulf.. I know we dont even have a LLC yet, but im interested in what the specific steering dynamics will be with the ridge, etc... models seem split on an eastern turn to florida and a sharp western turn toward BoC...

[Sanibel]

That curvature should be indicative of formation. I suspect the next burst should confirm.

[Nederlander]

convection is looking pretty weak at the moment.. except for a minor flare up on the northeast side.. is this just a nightime deal, pulsing pattern or what

[Ed Mahmoud]

Through 72 hours, GFS has a weak system, below TS strength, starting to turn Eastward toward Florida.

NAM is a weak system just NW of the Yucatan, drifting.


I'm thinking Florida, somewhere probably on the Peninsula Gulf side (of course) between a tropical depression and a high end Cat 1, just based on reliable models.

If it stays an open wave, it might continue toward Mexico. If it develops late, it should get under the Texas Death Ridge and head into Mexico.
Of course, this is an amateur and unofficial opinion.

[Ed Mahmoud]

More on models at model thread-

Through 72 hours, GFS has a weak system, below TS strength, starting to turn Eastward toward Florida.

NAM is a weak system just NW of the Yucatan, drifting.


I'm thinking Florida, somewhere probably on the Peninsula Gulf side (of course) between a tropical depression and a high end Cat 1, just based on reliable models.

If it stays an open wave, it might continue toward Mexico. If it develops late, it should get under the Texas Death Ridge and head into Mexico.
Of course, this is an amateur and unofficial opinion.

[boca]

Like Sanibel pointed out the curvature looks strong even though at the mid levels I think the next burst we should have a low level circulation.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Code: Select all

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I apologize in advance if this is already explained somewhere, but I didnt find any discussion on it. can someone shed some light on the potential steering of this thing once it enters the gulf.. I know we dont even have a LLC yet, but im interested in what the specific steering dynamics will be with the ridge, etc... models seem split on an eastern turn to florida and a sharp western turn toward BoC...

Lets take a stab at this.

Having a peek - and knowing a tiny bit about the current features at play. The major guys to effect weather in the general vicinity:
Upper level:
http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_vect_300.html

A weakening trough across florida (mid gulf through tampa out jacksonville. Been responsible for a bunch of enhanced tstorms in the state.)

A massive upper high pressure in Texas. Wow look at it up in the upper atmosphere.

Lower level winds:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=ir&zoom=&time=

Shows currently SW flow into W coast FL. Also shows winds at the surface tending to move it into the yucatan.

Systems at this phase are generally steered by the lower level winds.

So several possibilities exist, if she develops quickly, she would tend to move first more north, then get steered a bit more to the NW and then W by the upper high. If she stays at this phase it might tend to move more east.

[Ed Mahmoud]

My home made NASA satellite IR floater suggests, now that the deep convection that was obscuring it has faded, a suggestion of an MLC a tad further North and especially East than I was expecting (or was used to initialize latest BAM suite).


Possible MLC near 18ºN, 83ºW.


In my humble, unofficial and amateur opinion, this would support the idea of an Eastern Gulf, not a Western Gulf system, if there is a system at all.

[Aric Dunn]

we have to seriously watch this.. was looking at some of the synoptic and down stream upper environment looks very favorable !! also it is becoming more and more likely that the system will pass through the Yucatan Channel rather than over the Yucatan. which could allow for much faster organizations..

[Aric Dunn]

only remaining issue is a surface low developing .. right now no evidence , well nothing major to note..

[jasons2k]

It doesn't look impressive at all to me on infrared satellite tonight. Looks like more waiting before this one (possibly?) cranks up.

[AdamFirst]

Remains at Code Orange

[Ed Mahmoud]

More unimpressed model runs, GFDL, Euro, Canadian and NoGaps. A lot less deep convection than earlier, and not very organized looking.

Unofficially, I'd be code teal, under 10%.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Other than the HWRF's high end Cat 2 headed for Tampa, 0Z models are unimpressed.


I'm code beige, 5%, unofficially.


I guess we'll see what tomorrow brings.

[xironman]

Looks like it may burst again toward the center

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Nada at the surface.

[cycloneye]

Code Orange

473
ABNT20 KNHC 271136
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CUBA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WESTWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT WELL-DEFINED.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY
ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO TONIGHT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND
COULD SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[HURAKAN]

First visible.

[cycloneye]

Exactly,that is where the we have to focus,not on the big convective area to the east.Lets see when more visibles come,what we can see about the structure.