ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 161849
AF300 0102A ANA HDOB 19 20090816
184230 1548N 05740W 9716 00317 0077 +217 +173 053030 031 029 000 00
184300 1548N 05742W 9745 00292 0077 +222 +169 055028 029 028 000 00
184330 1548N 05743W 9744 00294 0079 +227 +167 058029 029 027 000 03
184400 1547N 05745W 9746 00294 0080 +230 +167 060024 025 027 000 03
184430 1546N 05745W 9737 00303 0082 +223 +168 060021 022 028 000 00
184500 1544N 05745W 9743 00298 0082 +223 +168 060020 022 022 001 00
184530 1542N 05745W 9740 00303 0085 +212 +167 121009 012 022 003 00
184600 1541N 05745W 9745 00297 0084 +209 +165 161008 009 022 003 00
184630 1539N 05745W 9742 00300 0084 +223 +163 159007 009 021 000 00
184700 1538N 05745W 9745 00298 0083 +230 +162 144010 010 013 000 00
184730 1536N 05745W 9741 00302 0083 +233 +163 157010 010 010 000 00
184800 1535N 05746W 9744 00300 0083 +235 +166 155010 010 013 000 00
184830 1533N 05746W 9744 00299 0084 +235 +169 164010 010 010 000 00
184900 1532N 05746W 9745 00299 0084 +235 +173 173010 011 013 000 00
184930 1530N 05746W 9745 00300 0084 +235 +176 183009 010 014 000 00
185000 1529N 05746W 9744 00300 0085 +233 +178 196009 009 013 000 00
185030 1528N 05746W 9742 00303 0086 +231 +180 199009 009 014 000 00
185100 1526N 05746W 9745 00300 0086 +234 +181 183007 008 009 000 00
185130 1525N 05746W 9745 00301 0086 +235 +182 170007 008 010 000 00
185200 1523N 05746W 9741 00304 0087 +235 +183 178005 006 011 000 00
$$
;

[paintplaye]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

...AIRCRAFT FINDS ANA POORLY ORGANIZED...BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...

2:00 PM AST Sun Aug 16
Location: 14.9°N 57.8°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: W at 25 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb

Still moving west i see....

[KWT]

There is no center at 14.9, it'd be clear as day, anything is gonig to be to the NW of that location. You'd see the circulation is it was at 14.9N as there isn't any convection that far south anymore...

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 161859
AF300 0102A ANA HDOB 20 20090816
185230 1522N 05746W 9745 00302 0088 +230 +184 214007 007 010 000 00
185300 1520N 05746W 9744 00304 0088 +229 +185 209006 006 008 000 00
185330 1518N 05746W 9744 00303 0089 +226 +185 219005 006 009 000 00
185400 1517N 05746W 9745 00304 0090 +228 +185 225005 006 011 000 00
185430 1517N 05746W 9745 00304 0090 +230 +185 223005 005 012 000 03
185500 1514N 05746W 9744 00305 0091 +230 +185 216005 006 012 000 00
185530 1512N 05746W 9745 00306 0091 +235 +185 185003 004 999 999 03
185600 1512N 05748W 9736 00313 0089 +236 +186 137008 010 012 000 03
185630 1512N 05749W 9748 00302 0090 +235 +187 124006 006 013 000 03
185700 1512N 05751W 9745 00303 0089 +234 +188 139005 005 013 000 03
185730 1512N 05753W 9742 00306 0089 +228 +189 161003 004 014 000 03
185800 1512N 05754W 9744 00305 0089 +226 +189 190004 005 015 000 03
185830 1513N 05756W 9753 00298 0090 +227 +188 191005 005 999 999 03
185900 1514N 05756W 9740 00308 0090 +225 +187 171006 007 003 001 03
185930 1516N 05756W 9746 00303 0090 +225 +185 179007 007 006 000 00
190000 1517N 05756W 9742 00306 0090 +225 +184 189008 008 012 000 00
190030 1519N 05756W 9744 00304 0089 +225 +184 202008 008 010 000 00
190100 1520N 05756W 9742 00304 0088 +225 +184 202009 010 008 000 00
190130 1522N 05756W 9742 00304 0088 +225 +183 197009 010 014 000 00
190200 1524N 05756W 9744 00302 0086 +232 +183 172008 009 009 000 00
$$
;

Maybe there is a circulation?

[pojo]

Crazy, Why are so many readings being flagged?

the only people that know why the readings are flagged are the crew and the NHC.

[Thunder44]

Looks like NHC will at least downgrade to TD in the next advisory:

AL, 02, 2009081618, , BEST, 0, 149N, 578W, 30, 1008, TD,

[KWT]

Yep, but I do wish they'd update the estimate of 14.9N, its clearly not there lol!
I do agree with the ide aof downgrading it though its not that far away from a TS really...

Anyway recon seems to be getting closer to finding a circulation now, close enough to keep it alive for now I think.

[Tireman4]

I would not count her out until the all clear is sounded and there is nothing there at all.

[alienstorm]

Looking very closely at high resolution visible loop, I would say the center is redeveloping at 15.6N 57.7W if you look closely between the two main burst of convention. The one to the east will be the dominating one as it rotates in once the new center develops. This is what recon is flagging and it will be interesting next fwe hours.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 161909
AF300 0102A ANA HDOB 21 20090816
190230 1525N 05756W 9740 00305 0086 +233 +184 173012 012 014 000 00
190300 1527N 05756W 9745 00300 0085 +233 +184 172013 014 009 000 00
190330 1529N 05756W 9745 00299 0085 +232 +186 169013 014 014 000 00
190400 1530N 05756W 9742 00302 0085 +229 +187 167013 013 015 000 00
190430 1532N 05756W 9742 00302 0085 +226 +187 153012 012 009 002 00
190500 1534N 05756W 9742 00301 0083 +237 +187 134014 015 011 000 00
190530 1535N 05756W 9746 00299 0084 +238 +187 124011 012 014 000 00
190600 1537N 05756W 9743 00301 0083 +235 +188 131011 011 014 000 00
190630 1538N 05756W 9746 00297 0083 +233 +189 147011 011 004 002 00
190700 1540N 05756W 9745 00299 0083 +233 +189 135011 012 012 000 00
190730 1542N 05756W 9744 00300 0085 +217 +189 109012 013 020 004 00
190800 1543N 05756W 9742 00300 0085 +212 +187 098016 017 017 003 00
190830 1545N 05756W 9747 00295 0084 +219 +183 090018 022 019 002 00
190900 1546N 05756W 9746 00296 0082 +230 +179 074021 021 023 001 00
190930 1548N 05756W 9740 00301 0081 +226 +177 072021 021 024 000 00
191000 1549N 05756W 9745 00295 0082 +220 +177 070020 021 023 003 00
191030 1551N 05756W 9745 00295 0082 +212 +176 071021 022 028 000 00
191100 1552N 05756W 9744 00296 0080 +220 +173 065025 026 026 000 00
191130 1554N 05756W 9752 00289 0079 +226 +171 060028 029 021 000 03
191200 1554N 05758W 9740 00299 0080 +225 +172 061029 030 027 003 03
$$
;

[KWT]

Yeah I also think that a new circulation is possibly just starting to form but we need to watch closely, it will be interestying to see if recon could close it off even more on its next pass through the area as it had winds to 230 degrees roughly last pass through...

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 161919
AF300 0102A ANA HDOB 22 20090816
191230 1554N 05800W 9742 00298 0080 +234 +172 068030 030 032 000 00
191300 1554N 05802W 9739 00303 0082 +238 +173 062024 025 027 003 00
191330 1554N 05803W 9737 00305 0082 +238 +176 059024 025 028 000 00
191400 1554N 05805W 9745 00299 0083 +239 +180 059024 025 027 001 03
191430 1553N 05807W 9740 00304 0083 +243 +184 063022 022 999 999 03
191500 1552N 05807W 9745 00300 0083 +241 +187 061022 023 025 000 00
191530 1550N 05807W 9743 00301 0083 +240 +190 060021 023 024 000 00
191600 1548N 05807W 9747 00298 0083 +240 +192 064019 020 021 000 00
191630 1547N 05807W 9744 00301 0083 +240 +194 067019 020 022 000 03
191700 1545N 05807W 9744 00300 0084 +232 +195 064018 019 019 002 00
191730 1544N 05807W 9745 00299 0086 +212 +195 073014 016 022 001 00
191800 1542N 05807W 9744 00299 0085 +228 +191 080012 013 018 000 00
191830 1540N 05807W 9745 00299 0085 +227 +187 089012 014 017 000 00
191900 1539N 05807W 9744 00300 0084 +232 +185 092011 012 012 000 00
191930 1537N 05807W 9744 00300 0084 +233 +184 100008 010 015 000 00
192000 1536N 05807W 9743 00302 0084 +237 +184 119008 008 015 001 00
192030 1534N 05807W 9740 00305 0085 +235 +185 133008 009 008 001 00
192100 1533N 05807W 9745 00300 0085 +235 +186 135007 008 015 000 00
192130 1531N 05807W 9744 00300 0085 +233 +188 157006 007 014 000 00
192200 1530N 05807W 9746 00299 0085 +230 +189 182005 006 011 002 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 161929
AF300 0102A ANA HDOB 23 20090816
192230 1528N 05807W 9744 00302 0086 +229 +190 190005 005 013 000 00
192300 1527N 05807W 9743 00303 0087 +230 +191 210005 005 011 000 00
192330 1525N 05807W 9744 00304 0088 +229 +190 211005 006 010 000 00
192400 1524N 05807W 9744 00302 0088 +227 +190 219007 007 014 000 00
192430 1522N 05807W 9746 00301 0089 +226 +190 222006 008 011 000 03
192500 1521N 05807W 9743 00305 0089 +225 +190 223008 010 012 000 03
192530 1519N 05807W 9744 00304 0089 +225 +190 238007 008 014 000 03
192600 1518N 05807W 9744 00304 0090 +226 +190 245006 007 999 999 03
192630 1516N 05807W 9744 00306 0090 +228 +190 247005 005 999 999 03
192700 1516N 05807W 9744 00306 0091 +225 +190 256007 007 010 000 03
192730 1513N 05807W 9744 00306 0091 +225 +190 255007 007 012 000 03
192800 1512N 05807W 9745 00304 0091 +229 +190 259006 007 999 999 03
192830 1510N 05807W 9744 00306 0091 +230 +191 241007 008 999 999 03
192900 1508N 05807W 9745 00305 0091 +230 +192 239006 006 009 000 03
192930 1507N 05807W 9742 00308 0091 +230 +194 242005 006 012 000 03
193000 1505N 05807W 9741 00308 0091 +230 +194 220007 008 999 999 03
193030 1504N 05807W 9746 00302 0090 +225 +194 191007 008 016 000 03
193100 1502N 05807W 9742 00306 0090 +230 +194 200004 005 009 001 00
193130 1501N 05807W 9751 00301 0092 +235 +192 150002 002 999 999 03
193200 1501N 05809W 9744 00307 0092 +231 +192 107003 004 009 001 03
$$

Winds now out of the west. Now the task is fixing a center.

[jlauderdal]

I would not count her out until the all clear is sounded and there is nothing there at all.

on this board we sound the all clear, change tracks, intensity and declare named systems 4-6 hours before NHC all the time

[rrm]

is she coming to life.....again?

[jinftl]

And that is why they get paid to do this and we are just amateurs....if left to the board, half of us would put an area under a hurricane warning based on any convection, and the rest would sound the all clear as an eyewall was forming!

I would not count her out until the all clear is sounded and there is nothing there at all.

on this board we sound the all clear, change tracks, intensity and declare named systems 4-6 hours before NHC all the time

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 161939
AF300 0102A ANA HDOB 24 20090816
193230 1501N 05811W 9744 00308 0093 +230 +193 101004 004 013 000 00
193300 1501N 05812W 9744 00309 0093 +228 +193 106005 006 014 001 00
193330 1501N 05814W 9744 00307 0095 +214 +193 081005 005 016 002 00
193400 1501N 05815W 9739 00313 0094 +224 +191 085005 005 017 000 00
193430 1501N 05817W 9754 00299 0094 +223 +187 125006 008 999 999 03
193500 1503N 05817W 9746 00305 0093 +228 +185 160006 007 012 000 03
193530 1504N 05817W 9744 00307 0092 +233 +185 176004 005 013 000 00
193600 1506N 05817W 9743 00307 0092 +233 +186 205004 005 012 000 00
193630 1507N 05817W 9745 00306 0092 +230 +188 250002 003 015 000 00
193700 1509N 05817W 9745 00306 0092 +228 +190 203004 005 016 000 00
193730 1511N 05817W 9745 00305 0091 +229 +190 198006 006 009 000 00
193800 1512N 05817W 9742 00307 0091 +230 +191 187006 006 011 000 00
193830 1514N 05817W 9744 00306 0091 +226 +192 213007 007 010 000 00
193900 1515N 05817W 9744 00305 0090 +229 +192 211008 008 012 000 00
193930 1517N 05817W 9744 00304 0089 +230 +192 222008 008 011 000 00
194000 1518N 05817W 9744 00303 0087 +232 +192 197005 006 008 000 00
194030 1520N 05817W 9744 00303 0087 +230 +193 141004 005 003 000 00
194100 1522N 05817W 9744 00301 0086 +227 +194 149004 005 014 000 00
194130 1523N 05817W 9759 00288 0086 +228 +195 146004 005 010 000 00
194200 1525N 05817W 9772 00275 0085 +230 +194 154005 006 014 000 03
$$
;

Center at 15.0N 58.3W?

[cpdaman]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

besides the two ULL's at 25/70 and 27/52............what is that convection to her nw.....looks almost like the appearance of a tropical wave axis to her nw .....

i'm not sure what the feature is ....maybe someone can chime in.....basically asking to see if that area will cause a weakness in the ridge

[KWT]

Whatever it is has been with the system right from the start.

Looks like recon may have found something of a center near 15N afterall which strikes me as fairly far south given the convection's location.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 161949
AF300 0102A ANA HDOB 25 20090816
194230 1526N 05817W 9770 00277 0084 +230 +194 144005 006 010 001 00
194300 1528N 05817W 9769 00276 0083 +227 +195 155004 006 015 000 00
194330 1530N 05817W 9771 00274 0082 +234 +194 135007 007 009 000 00
194400 1531N 05817W 9770 00275 0082 +235 +194 123008 009 008 000 00
194430 1533N 05817W 9770 00276 0083 +235 +194 126006 007 015 000 03
194500 1534N 05817W 9769 00277 0083 +235 +195 119007 008 013 000 03
194530 1536N 05817W 9772 00275 0083 +239 +196 100011 012 012 000 00
194600 1538N 05817W 9771 00275 0083 +237 +197 095012 014 019 000 03
194630 1539N 05817W 9770 00276 0083 +232 +198 093012 012 019 000 00
194700 1541N 05817W 9768 00278 0085 +218 +199 106016 017 021 002 00
194730 1542N 05817W 9768 00278 0086 +218 +195 094016 018 022 000 00
194800 1544N 05817W 9770 00275 0086 +217 +191 095017 019 021 002 00
194830 1545N 05817W 9771 00275 0083 +238 +186 094016 016 019 000 00
194900 1547N 05817W 9770 00276 0083 +238 +184 092015 016 022 000 00
194930 1548N 05817W 9774 00273 0083 +243 +186 079019 020 019 002 00
195000 1550N 05817W 9771 00275 0083 +228 +189 071023 024 028 003 00
195030 1551N 05817W 9766 00278 0083 +232 +191 069023 025 028 000 03
195100 1553N 05817W 9768 00277 0083 +233 +191 070021 022 024 001 00
195130 1554N 05817W 9774 00272 0083 +239 +190 067021 022 026 000 03
195200 1556N 05817W 9769 00276 0082 +240 +190 069022 022 024 000 00
$$
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