ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[KWT]

There is a warm spot there and it probably is located where the microwave suggested an eye was but the dry slot to the NE seems to be preventing it from getting too much of a classic shape. This will probably evolve into a classic shearing category-1, any eye is always going to struggle in that set-up.

[Aric Dunn]

if the center is where the recon has located it, there seems to be some mlc to the northeast, maybe the storm is tilted

either that or it was just a illusion with the clouds that makes that look like the center..

[hurricanefloyd5]

key west could see a hurricane watch/warning in the next 24-36hrs. if this keeps up!!!!!!

[cycloneye]

Interesting that SHIP is now forecasting a hurricane until 72 hours,it never had that in all the past runs.

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1817 UTC SAT NOV 7 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA (AL112009) 20091107 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091107 1800 091108 0600 091108 1800 091109 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.5N 84.1W 19.9N 85.9W 21.4N 87.9W 23.3N 89.6W
BAMD 18.5N 84.1W 20.3N 84.7W 22.2N 85.5W 24.5N 86.5W
BAMM 18.5N 84.1W 20.0N 85.2W 21.7N 86.7W 23.9N 88.2W
LBAR 18.5N 84.1W 19.9N 84.4W 21.4N 85.0W 22.9N 85.8W
SHIP 60KTS 74KTS 80KTS 80KTS
DSHP 60KTS 74KTS 80KTS 80KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091109 1800 091110 1800 091111 1800 091112 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.3N 90.1W 28.6N 88.5W 27.4N 88.1W 26.3N 91.3W
BAMD 27.9N 87.1W 36.1N 82.2W 44.6N 64.6W 46.5N 36.8W
BAMM 26.9N 89.0W 32.2N 86.4W 34.0N 74.6W 41.8N 62.7W
LBAR 24.5N 86.2W 25.9N 85.4W 24.2N 82.5W 21.0N 78.4W
SHIP 79KTS 66KTS 40KTS 19KTS
DSHP 79KTS 66KTS 40KTS 19KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 84.1W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 16.8N LONM12 = 84.0W DIRM12 = 357DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 15.4N LONM24 = 83.9W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 90NM

[Aric Dunn]

ok well they missed the center or its reforming..

[hurricanefloyd5]

ne of wherfe is is it possible that is where the center is and it's wrapping up quickly an fast? If this is th as thn it's possibl sh is also xpaning in siz vry fast as wll right???????????

[WindRunner]

key west could see a hurricane watch/warning in the next 24-36hrs. if this keeps up!!!!!!

Let's not overhype this...the storm is not expected to move in that direction (it's already centered farther west than Key West), and even if it were to start recurving now, it most likely would not be able to maintain hurricane strength that far north, environmental conditions are simply not favorable enough for such an occurrence.

[Aric Dunn]

seems that though they missed the center or its reforming cause lowest winds do not correlate with lowest pressure.. the center could be trying to move closer to the northern convection.. something is weird..

[littlevince]

[drezee]

183500 1854N 08419W 8395 01491 9973 +156 +152 030064 068 060 022 03

68 kt winds in the NW quad...SFMR 60kts

[gatorcane]

seems that though they missed the center or its reforming cause lowest winds do not correlate with lowest pressure.. the center could be trying to move closer to the northern convection.. something is weird..

Hey Aric see my post above, look at the escape route at the H5 steering layer to her NE/ENE. Caribbean ridge is to her east but she could round the northern periphery before the Texas ridge gets her. Also there is a large trough digging into the Western Atlantic.....Thoughts?

[KWT]

Also interesting that they are also going right upto 80kts now, the NHC are going to be forced to raise there forecast, quite possibly to a peak of 70-80kts IMO.

[WindRunner]

Since this isn't posted yet...

URNT15 KNHC 071837
AF306 0211A IDA HDOB 33 20091107
182900 1845N 08401W 8417 01421 9881 +227 +188 199032 033 033 003 03
182930 1847N 08402W 8432 01408 9896 +199 +188 188028 032 031 003 00
183000 1848N 08403W 8434 01403 9898 +192 +187 169023 023 032 002 00
183030 1849N 08404W 8428 01413 9903 +188 +183 148021 023 028 003 03
183100 1850N 08406W 8437 01399 9904 +189 +179 141014 016 029 003 00
183130 1851N 08408W 8427 01416 9908 +187 +174 114013 016 028 003 00
183200 1852N 08409W 8429 01418 9911 +192 +169 068010 011 028 003 00
183230 1853N 08411W 8427 01422 9916 +190 +164 038012 014 027 003 03
183300 1854N 08412W 8424 01430 9924 +181 +163 055017 018 030 004 03
183330 1855N 08414W 8431 01430 9928 +188 +161 059018 020 038 005 03
183400 1854N 08415W 8425 01431 9931 +179 +160 053027 033 061 021 03
183430 1853N 08417W 8428 01448 9948 +177 +158 030047 052 057 012 03
183500 1854N 08419W 8395 01491 9973 +156 +152 030064 068 060 022 03
183530 1855N 08420W 8438 01457 9996 +139 +139 023061 063 058 022 03
183600 1856N 08421W 8405 01493 0007 +130 +130 018063 064 060 025 00
183630 1857N 08421W 8444 01459 0014 +130 +125 022058 059 058 034 00
183700 1858N 08422W 8421 01488 0019 +129 +117 022052 056 059 035 00
183730 1859N 08423W 8429 01479 0019 +133 +110 023039 042 061 036 00
183800 1900N 08424W 8434 01477 0022 +131 +106 026038 039 061 034 00
183830 1902N 08425W 8425 01487 0022 +130 +103 038043 048 058 032 00
$$
;

min pressure at 988, but the SFMR never read under 27kts, so, as Aric said, they seem to be missing the center with these passes. Or, since the shear is fairly respectable in this area, the mid-level center does not align with the surface center.

[Evil Jeremy]

key west could see a hurricane watch/warning in the next 24-36hrs. if this keeps up!!!!!!

No offense, but you should calm down. Hurricane force winds will not be effecting the keys from Ida. Even if it moves due north from where it is now, the hurricane wind field would not be big enough to effect the Keys. Oh, and it would pass through Cuba, likely getting rid of most hurricane winds.

[brunota2003]

SMFR had winds of 60 and 61 that pass though, and they were not flagged.

[WindRunner]

No, it's not the center...although maybe that's what Ivanhater and KWT were referring to at the top of this page. The center is actually directly under the dark gray spots on the loop you posted ericinmia, as this is where the recon fixes are being made. The other swirl is interesting, but most definitely not at the surface and not indicative of storm structure.

EDIT: hmmm, the post I was replying to is gone now?

[Aric Dunn]

seems that though they missed the center or its reforming cause lowest winds do not correlate with lowest pressure.. the center could be trying to move closer to the northern convection.. something is weird..

Hey Aric see my post above, look at the escape route at the H5 steering layer to her NE/ENE. Caribbean ridge is to her east but she could round the northern periphery before the Texas ridge gets her. Also there is a large trough digging into the Western Atlantic.....Thoughts?

well right that is due in part to my post earlier why a more north motion and a little faster should occur and from what recon just did the center either reformed or has moved a good deal north in the last hour. as for the ridge over texas its going to a timing thing for sure and the next 12 to 24 hours help since IDA will likely become a hurricane ...

[Weatherboy1]

I don't know about this supposed turn to the NW or NNW. Ida has consistently -- for more than 24 hours now -- been moving E of the forecasted model tracks. The SFWMD map is great because it shows the previous model projections in "faded" color and you can see that they keep on forecasting immediate moves to the NNW ... moves that have NOT materialized.

[WindRunner]

URNT15 KNHC 071847
AF306 0211A IDA HDOB 34 20091107
183900 1903N 08425W 8430 01481 0024 +129 +101 044047 049 053 026 00
183930 1904N 08426W 8430 01482 0020 +139 +099 051053 054 053 017 00
184000 1905N 08427W 8424 01493 0017 +150 +098 052055 056 051 016 00
184030 1907N 08428W 8432 01490 0026 +146 +098 053056 057 050 014 03
184100 1908N 08429W 8427 01500 0034 +142 +098 055052 054 049 011 00
184130 1910N 08429W 8433 01500 0040 +144 +098 057046 048 047 008 00
184200 1911N 08429W 8428 01510 0039 +151 +098 063045 046 047 007 00
184230 1913N 08430W 8429 01511 0039 +159 +099 065047 047 046 002 00
184300 1914N 08430W 8431 01509 0040 +157 +100 067047 049 046 002 00
184330 1916N 08431W 8430 01510 0037 +165 +102 070046 047 044 004 00
184400 1917N 08431W 8430 01511 0040 +163 +104 072047 048 044 004 00
184430 1919N 08431W 8432 01512 0045 +158 +106 071049 050 044 005 00
184500 1920N 08432W 8428 01517 0045 +161 +108 072050 051 044 004 00
184530 1922N 08432W 8430 01517 0048 +159 +110 072048 048 044 004 03
184600 1923N 08432W 8426 01521 0049 +157 +114 068048 050 044 004 03
184630 1925N 08432W 8430 01522 0048 +160 +117 065052 054 044 004 00
184700 1926N 08432W 8434 01515 0050 +157 +119 070060 061 044 003 00
184730 1927N 08432W 8430 01523 0049 +161 +122 070061 063 045 002 00
184800 1929N 08432W 8425 01526 0050 +161 +123 066059 060 044 005 00
184830 1930N 08432W 8436 01517 0053 +158 +124 067058 060 042 007 00
$$
;

FL winds are actually increasing there at the end? Must be an extra convective burst to the north and west of the center. Also, they are flying due north now...possibly a sign that this flight is almost over?

[Aric Dunn]

Since this isn't posted yet...


;

min pressure at 988, but the SFMR never read under 27kts, so, as Aric said, they seem to be missing the center with these passes. Or, since the shear is fairly respectable in this area, the mid-level center does not align with the surface center.

right or the center is reforming which give a semi open pressure gradient during that process typically its pretty fast and by the next pass if this still persists than a decoupled system is likely but from the long visible loops reforming near the convection farther north is possible.