ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Aric Dunn]

what really sucks.. is we only get one more image then we hit the eclipse..

[Aric Dunn]

and keep in mind, models are in general agreement about recurve in about 5 days. may have the first true fish storm

wow.. that is completely backwards.. not sure what models you are looking at but the only one out to see is the cmc ..

well let me rephrase the only that does not threaten land first..

and well if this does make to depression in the morning it will be most likely crossing near or over the NE islands..

so fish ??? dont think so not at least when it comes to models..

[Evil Jeremy]

We can't discount the CMC model either since they upgraded just recently.

But we still don't know how well the new CMC is. It has not had that much to be tested on this season, and even with 94L it has been intensifying it unnecessarily deeply over the past runs.

[Derek Ortt]

CMC intensifies this north of the Caribbean

also, remember the EURO that many here worship, also has this turning to affect only the sharks and barracudas

but then again, a model that indicates recurve can never be correct... can it?

[PTrackerLA]

Does not seem to be moving much right now, and what little movement is seen by IR sat appears to be NW. Could just be the shear creating that illusion. Excellent looking Invest tonight though!

[Bocadude85]

We can't discount the CMC model either since they upgraded just recently.

But we still don't know how well the new CMC is. It has not had that much to be tested on this season, and even with 94L it has been intensifying it unnecessarily deeply over the past runs.

Also the CMC has Jimena missing the Baja and moving WNW which would make me think this is not the best model to use for future track.

[Evil Jeremy]

CMC intensifies this north of the Caribbean

also, remember the EURO that many here worship, also has this turning to affect only the sharks and barracudas

but then again, a model that indicates recurve can never be correct... can it?

Well, when you say "models are in general agreement", you make it sound like a majority or even a good chunk are showing this, when it is only just a few.

[Derek Ortt]

CMC intensifies this north of the Caribbean

also, remember the EURO that many here worship, also has this turning to affect only the sharks and barracudas

but then again, a model that indicates recurve can never be correct... can it?

Well, when you say "models are in general agreement", you make it sound like a majority or even a good chunk are showing this, when it is only just a few.

I don't count the BAM suite as real models

[Bocadude85]

CMC intensifies this north of the Caribbean

also, remember the EURO that many here worship, also has this turning to affect only the sharks and barracudas

but then again, a model that indicates recurve can never be correct... can it?

It seems to me that the models that actually do threaten land are written off more then the models that recurve. Atleast seems that way to me this season.

[Evil Jeremy]

CMC intensifies this north of the Caribbean

also, remember the EURO that many here worship, also has this turning to affect only the sharks and barracudas

but then again, a model that indicates recurve can never be correct... can it?

Well, when you say "models are in general agreement", you make it sound like a majority or even a good chunk are showing this, when it is only just a few.

I don't count the BAM suite as real models

No, but the HWRF, GFS, NOGAPS, and the UKMET don't show recurve, and even the CMC isn't the best preforming model out there, even with its upgrades. All I am saying is that you made it sound like a majority of the models were showing recurve rather than just a few.

['CaneFreak]

CMC intensifies this north of the Caribbean

also, remember the EURO that many here worship, also has this turning to affect only the sharks and barracudas

but then again, a model that indicates recurve can never be correct... can it?

Well, when you say "models are in general agreement", you make it sound like a majority or even a good chunk are showing this, when it is only just a few.

I don't count the BAM suite as real models

Actually, the BAM suite does pretty well in the deep tropics....it has performed the best with this system thus far...(probably because it has been rather weak)

The numbers don't lie Ortt...

http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/st ... _perf.html

Oh and you said this thing was going to stay weak earlier....are you changing your tune? If this stays weak...its headed west...

[tolakram]

Shortwave/Visible clearly shows the shear and the LLC looks to be getting more exposed.

Loop:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[Aric Dunn]

alrighty.. latest microwave again..

its becoming pretty clear we have a closed circ.. this image was a couple hours ago but shows clear banding and the center on the western edge of the convection but it does not mean that it wont be pulled under the convection or reform either thats just what we have at the moment. we will know more in a couple hours when the hi resolution microwaves come out again and hopefully they are good passes, also fom the images i made earlier it has not moved very much ..

original link
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc09/A ... W.69pc.jpg

[deltadog03]

Good finds both of yall...It looks like we have a LLC, but should either reform or push back in closer to that very deep convection. I also see some fanning out on the W quad of this. Tells me shear is lessoning.

[boca]

Shortwave/Visible clearly shows the shear and the LLC looks to be getting more exposed.

Loop:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

Great image,it looks like theirs infow coming into it from the south.It looks heathly right now but it could look like a skeleton in the morning.

[Evil Jeremy]

TD by 11 in the morning, calling it now lol. Now let me start preparing my Crow for lunch tomorrow. I have enough time to prepare it in advance to make it nice and tasty.

[Bocadude85]

Shortwave/Visible clearly shows the shear and the LLC looks to be getting more exposed.

Loop:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

Yup does seem the LLC is exposed and on the SW side of the convection.

['CaneFreak]

TD by 11 in the morning, calling it now lol. Now let me start preparing my Crow for lunch tomorrow. I have enough time to prepare it in advance to make it nice and tasty.

Shhhhhhhhh.....stop jinxing it...LOL....

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Please correct me if i'm wrong about this, but wasn't the cmc the model that showed south louisiana getting slammed by three storms in a row earlier this month? Believe it was Ana, Bill, and Claudette.

[MWatkins]

I have no doubt, at all, that this is a depression and probably Erika already.

Waves don't produce circular, -80 degree cloud tops like this. Even if it lasts 24 hours (and I could be eating crow if it doesn't) if it smells like a TC, looks like a TC and produces cold cloud tops like this...

Maybe they are waiting to see if the tops get sheared out. It still looks a lot like Irene did when it passed over SFL in 99, even if the thunderstorms are displaced to the east of the LLC.

MW