ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[KWT]

I don't know about this supposed turn to the NW or NNW. Ida has consistently -- for more than 24 hours now -- been moving E of the forecasted model tracks. The SFWMD map is great because it shows the previous model projections in "faded" color and you can see that they keep on forecasting immediate moves to the NNW ... moves that have NOT materialized.

I've been saying for the last few days I weren 't really sure why some models were going as far west as they were, it may yet bend back NNW but its going to havwe to start soon because otherwise focus on any possible landfall will have to shift a little east.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071847
AF306 0211A IDA HDOB 34 20091107
183900 1903N 08425W 8430 01481 0024 +129 +101 044047 049 053 026 00
183930 1904N 08426W 8430 01482 0020 +139 +099 051053 054 053 017 00
184000 1905N 08427W 8424 01493 0017 +150 +098 052055 056 051 016 00
184030 1907N 08428W 8432 01490 0026 +146 +098 053056 057 050 014 03
184100 1908N 08429W 8427 01500 0034 +142 +098 055052 054 049 011 00
184130 1910N 08429W 8433 01500 0040 +144 +098 057046 048 047 008 00
184200 1911N 08429W 8428 01510 0039 +151 +098 063045 046 047 007 00
184230 1913N 08430W 8429 01511 0039 +159 +099 065047 047 046 002 00
184300 1914N 08430W 8431 01509 0040 +157 +100 067047 049 046 002 00
184330 1916N 08431W 8430 01510 0037 +165 +102 070046 047 044 004 00
184400 1917N 08431W 8430 01511 0040 +163 +104 072047 048 044 004 00
184430 1919N 08431W 8432 01512 0045 +158 +106 071049 050 044 005 00
184500 1920N 08432W 8428 01517 0045 +161 +108 072050 051 044 004 00
184530 1922N 08432W 8430 01517 0048 +159 +110 072048 048 044 004 03
184600 1923N 08432W 8426 01521 0049 +157 +114 068048 050 044 004 03
184630 1925N 08432W 8430 01522 0048 +160 +117 065052 054 044 004 00
184700 1926N 08432W 8434 01515 0050 +157 +119 070060 061 044 003 00
184730 1927N 08432W 8430 01523 0049 +161 +122 070061 063 045 002 00
184800 1929N 08432W 8425 01526 0050 +161 +123 066059 060 044 005 00
184830 1930N 08432W 8436 01517 0053 +158 +124 067058 060 042 007 00
$$
;

[gatorcane]

it appears Recon is still looking for the center as they did not find it where they thought it was. I'm looking hard at the vis and IR, it seems like it has somehow relocated itself NE of the big RED blob or some other quasi-center had developed and there are two centers now....which is already at the 00Z forecast point and to the right heading due north towards the Isle of Youth.. Anybody seeing this also? If this verifies, it could change some things.

[Sanibel]

Close to trop points mates. Follow the black IR center. Headed NNW just right of trop points.


No RI so far.

[hurricanefloyd5]

got th right man

[ericinmia]

it appears Recon is still looking for the center. I'm looking hard at the vis and IR, it seems like it has somehow relocated itself NE of the big RED blob....which is already at the 00Z forecast point and to the right.. Anybody seeing this also?

I thought I saw that too, but then I also haven't had much chance to look at anything (busy at work updating servers)... soo...

I decided for other people to argue that one out and I'll just read. It is interesting to say the least. Maybe Ida Decoupled?
Storms that are as well defined as she was shouldn't have swirls that large coming out of them... lol
-Eric

[Aric Dunn]

Think they are adjusting their flight path to correct for the center being not where they thought ..

[WindRunner]

We also have another eye drop...

UZNT13 KNHC 071851
XXAA 57198 99189 70842 04584 99991 27620 ///// 00585 ///// /////
92605 23208 ///// 85342 20024 02520 88999 77999
31313 09608 81832
61616 AF306 0211A IDA OB 11
62626 EYE SPL 1886N08418W 1834 LST WND 003 AEV 20800 DLM WND 0204
6 990843 REL 1888N08417W 183219 SPG 1887N08418W 183406 =
XXBB 57198 99189 70842 04584 00991 27620 11904 21803 22850 20024
33843 19430
21212 00991 ///// 11990 05523 22881 01567 33843 03012
31313 09608 81832
61616 AF306 0211A IDA OB 11
62626 EYE SPL 1886N08418W 1834 LST WND 003 AEV 20800 DLM WND 0204
6 990843 REL 1888N08417W 183219 SPG 1887N08418W 183406 =
;

Sfc reading of 991mb, no sfc wind measured. The last wind reported was 3kts, which would imply that the 991mb might be fairly accurate.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro..good deal stronger it seems

[gatorcane]

That clear yellow circle between the red convection areas is not the center right? That is what I am looking at

[Aric Dunn]

That clear yellow circle is not the center right? That is what I am looking at

nope..

[WindRunner]

The center is being found fine by recon - there are no issues with that. They may be missing it by a mile or two, not by 60-100 miles - we're talking professionals inside the storm here, and if they find a circulation with a well-defined ~991mb low pressure associated with it, I think THAT is the storm, not a pseudo-swirl offset to the east of the deep convection, like due to some subsidence from the intense thunderstorms over the actual center.

[Sanibel]

Not even close.


We should get Cancun radar later today.

[Aric Dunn]

We also have another eye drop...

UZNT13 KNHC 071851
XXAA 57198 99189 70842 04584 99991 27620 ///// 00585 ///// /////
92605 23208 ///// 85342 20024 02520 88999 77999
31313 09608 81832
61616 AF306 0211A IDA OB 11
62626 EYE SPL 1886N08418W 1834 LST WND 003 AEV 20800 DLM WND 0204
6 990843 REL 1888N08417W 183219 SPG 1887N08418W 183406 =
XXBB 57198 99189 70842 04584 00991 27620 11904 21803 22850 20024
33843 19430
21212 00991 ///// 11990 05523 22881 01567 33843 03012
31313 09608 81832
61616 AF306 0211A IDA OB 11
62626 EYE SPL 1886N08418W 1834 LST WND 003 AEV 20800 DLM WND 0204
6 990843 REL 1888N08417W 183219 SPG 1887N08418W 183406 =
;

Sfc reading of 991mb, no sfc wind measured. The last wind reported was 3kts, which would imply that the 991mb might be fairly accurate.

like I said before its likely that another center has developed in there somewhere cause 988 was the lowest with 30 kt winds.. during that type of process mixed reading show just like this.. they may have found another vort..

[Tropics Guy]

The center is nearer the black spot in the deep convection, the clear area is NOT the eye..............

TG

[Ivanhater]

The possible eye I'm looking at corresponds well with the Fix, That white area under the main blob, not the area to the Northeast. Seems to be around 84.5

[WindRunner]

URNT15 KNHC 071856
AF306 0211A IDA HDOB 35 20091107
184900 1932N 08432W 8426 01528 0051 +164 +123 065049 051 043 007 00
184930 1933N 08432W 8428 01527 0050 +167 +122 065046 047 042 007 00
185000 1935N 08432W 8434 01521 0050 +169 +121 066045 045 042 007 00
185030 1936N 08432W 8431 01526 0052 +165 +121 068046 047 042 006 00
185100 1938N 08432W 8425 01531 0055 +164 +121 071049 050 042 006 00
185130 1939N 08432W 8429 01529 0058 +161 +121 074051 052 042 006 00
185200 1940N 08432W 8421 01540 0060 +156 +122 078048 050 040 008 00
185230 1942N 08432W 8433 01527 0059 +160 +122 077050 052 040 006 00
185300 1943N 08432W 8431 01528 0059 +161 +122 079050 051 039 007 00
185330 1945N 08432W 8430 01529 0058 +164 +121 077053 053 039 007 00
185400 1947N 08432W 8429 01532 0060 +161 +121 078053 054 040 006 00
185430 1948N 08432W 8429 01532 0061 +160 +121 079052 052 039 007 00
185500 1950N 08432W 8429 01534 0063 +157 +120 083052 053 039 007 00
185530 1951N 08432W 8426 01538 0065 +157 +120 082051 053 039 007 00
185600 1953N 08432W 8427 01538 0065 +160 +119 080049 049 038 006 00
185630 1954N 08432W 8428 01536 0065 +160 +119 081051 052 037 006 00
185700 1956N 08432W 8433 01531 0063 +164 +119 082049 050 037 005 00
185730 1957N 08432W 8429 01537 0066 +163 +119 083048 048 037 005 00
185800 1959N 08432W 8429 01539 0069 +160 +120 082049 049 037 005 00
185830 2000N 08432W 8426 01543 0070 +157 +121 085048 049 036 006 00
$$
;

Still heading due north...finding a nice, broad field of 40kt+ winds.

[Aric Dunn]

The center is being found fine by recon - there are no issues with that. They may be missing it by a mile or two, not by 60-100 miles - we're talking professionals inside the storm here, and if they find a circulation with a well-defined ~991mb low pressure associated with it, I think THAT is the storm, not a pseudo-swirl offset to the east of the deep convection, like due to some subsidence from the intense thunderstorms over the actual center.

The issue is not the little warm spot on satellite.. its with the recon data.. there is probably 2 vorts in there now. the old one with the pressure of that 988 and the one they seemed to have just did a drop in with 991. thes types of reading are very normal for multiple vorts or a center relocation..

[Derek Ortt]

looks like southerly shear, not the SW shear that was expected

[cycloneye]

Crew is finding a broader windfield.