ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#1861 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:21 pm

MWatkins wrote:I have no doubt, at all, that this is a depression and probably Erika already.

Waves don't produce circular, -80 degree cloud tops like this. Even if it lasts 24 hours (and I could be eating crow if it doesn't) if it smells like a TC, looks like a TC and produces cold cloud tops like this...

Maybe they are waiting to see if the tops get sheared out. It still looks a lot like Irene did when it passed over SFL in 99, even if the thunderstorms are displaced to the east of the LLC.

MW



Alberto from 2006 comes to mind.. recon went out and found 70 mph winds when it looked like this.. oh and i agree..

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#1862 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:22 pm

Not that it means much but 94L should move into the Hebert Box

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a7/Hebert_boxes.jpg
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#1863 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:27 pm

Starting to see some good fanning out on the W quad...tells me shear is really starting to lessen.

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
'CaneFreak
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1486
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:50 am
Location: New Bern, NC

Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#1864 Postby 'CaneFreak » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:28 pm

MWatkins wrote:I have no doubt, at all, that this is a depression and probably Erika already.

Waves don't produce circular, -80 degree cloud tops like this. Even if it lasts 24 hours (and I could be eating crow if it doesn't) if it smells like a TC, looks like a TC and produces cold cloud tops like this...

Maybe they are waiting to see if the tops get sheared out. It still looks a lot like Irene did when it passed over SFL in 99, even if the thunderstorms are displaced to the east of the LLC.

MW


Mike Watkins....whats happening? Yeah...I agree...the center is still a little to west of the convection but they kept Danny a TROPICAL system when the convection was over 100 miles away from the center so....yeah...I agree with you...I am not going to predict what they are going to do with it...I don't want to jinx it...LOL...
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#1865 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:30 pm

I think the fade by morning people are starting to look bad.


Looks like a hurricane. I'd say direct to Erika most likely.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29113
Age: 73
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:
Contact vbhoutex

Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#1866 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:31 pm

Despite my earlier posts, I have to agree we have a player now. The convection has been consistent and strong and is not being destroyed by the shear, which is obviously still present. However, I would feel more confident in the future of 94L as Erika if that LLCC would get back under the convection. That is the only real fly I see in the ointment right now.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6369
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#1867 Postby boca » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:33 pm

Yeah this 94L is probably a TD or Erika. Its most likely not going to look like a skeleton like I said earlier. Its getting to the Herbert box.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145820
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#1868 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:34 pm

94L is again at above graphic of forum. :)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#1869 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:39 pm

Anyone look at the 00z GFS?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_162l.gif
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#1870 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:44 pm

Pretty explosive looking burst, I think the NHC may wait till the Vis before making any call though and maybe even wait till recon gets into the system to get a good idea of its actual strength and health.

For now looks like it'll be a close shave with the NE Caribbean but I think it may just about clear it, the US still has to be a real threat however...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
N2FSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1063
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#1871 Postby N2FSU » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:46 pm

quite large...the convection looks to cover about the area of the entire peninsula of Florida
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#1872 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:47 pm

no change in organization. No TC yet and the LLC has not closed up at all today

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/asc ... Bas100.png
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#1873 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:47 pm

I am off to bed now, but sitting here in SFL, this system is starting to catch my interest as a potential future threat. Granted it is still at least a week out, but still, its something lol.
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#1874 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:50 pm

shows an open wave. They pass through Florida frequently. Nothing to see in that run of significance
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#1875 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:52 pm

00z nogaps pays a visit to very near miami/wpb/fll
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

#1876 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:53 pm

Nogaps

Image
0 likes   
Top
MWatkins
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2574
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 7:51 pm
Location: SE Florida
Contact:
Contact MWatkins

Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#1877 Postby MWatkins » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:53 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:no change in organization. No TC yet and the LLC has not closed up at all today

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/asc ... Bas100.png


As of 9:20PM Eastern (when that QSCAT pass was taken) I would have agreed with you. However, since that time convection has become much more concentrated and circular.

MW
Last edited by MWatkins on Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#1878 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:53 pm

Thats why I think they may not upgrade till recon goes in there Derek, I personally suspect there maybe a LLC but that doesn't seem to suggest it and the NHC are not going to upgrade only for recon to show its not closed off at all.
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re:

#1879 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:54 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:no change in organization. No TC yet and the LLC has not closed up at all today

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/asc ... Bas100.png


so derek is the 00z nogaps wrong too.. fish storm huh.. :P
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

#1880 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:54 pm

CMC also much further west
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2009”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests