ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Aric Dunn]

Thats why I think they may not upgrade till recon goes in there Derek, I personally suspect there maybe a LLC but that doesn't seem to suggest it and the NHC are not going to upgrade only for recon to show its not closed off at all.

hehe.. when recon gets there it will be over the islands.. lol

[KWT]

Yep CMC now jumped off the fish idea as well, looks like the trend is west from most models now as the models follow the ECM's idea of the high being strong enough to guide this WNW.

[Aric Dunn]

no change in organization. No TC yet and the LLC has not closed up at all today

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/asc ... Bas100.png

As of 9:20PM Eastern (when that QSCAT pass was taken) I would have agreed with you. However, since that time convection has become much more concentrated and circular.

MW

exactly was about to remark about that..the convection had just started building at 129

[cycloneye]

no change in organization. No TC yet and the LLC has not closed up at all today

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/asc ... Bas100.png

That means with what you haved said of weak more west,squally weather for some of the islands in the northern Leewards,VI and Puerto Rico.

[Stormcenter]

It does look impressive but the key is staying power and it still will have to deal with shear down the road so her (if it gets named) glory "may" be short lived. We shall see.

[Stormcenter]

What we all do if it were not for the models? They always seem to keep things interesting in a funny sort of way.

[deltadog03]

I don't know why everyone says that shear will kill this. It could be mid shear, but dosn't look like upper shear (as of now) will be the factor.

[MWatkins]

I don't know why everyone says that shear will kill this. It could be mid shear, but dosn't look like upper shear (as of now) will be the factor.

Whenever I see this in the models I try to remember that they didn't see Isabel very well, and Felix was getting up to Cat 5 status before the globals picked it up.

At this time of year we almost have to have a bias toward climatology because the numerical models are blind to that idea.

MW

[Stormcenter]

I was not ever sold on the idea of Ana or Danny becoming a major system or a threat to the U.S. mainland and feel the same way about 94L. If I'm then I'm wrong.

[cycloneye]

00z CMC way west of 12z run.Almost passes over my house in San Juan.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Derek Ortt]

remember, EC had a weakness that allowed for a curve

That said, I will do as i do every morning, re-evaluate the data. Will have new MM5 guidance as well (or should... unless I managed to screw something up again)

off to get a few hours of sleep now

[Meso]

And here is the long range CMC

[Aric Dunn]

geeezz.. this thing is still producing -80 degree tops .. that 6 hours of it now..

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm

never in my life have seen a wave !! do this.. there has to be a closed circ.. nothing else makes sense..

if it was like a quick burst thats one thing .. but 6 hours .!!! this is Erika..

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 010535
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT IT
STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION
CENTER. HOWEVER...SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Aric Dunn]

ABNT20 KNHC 010535
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT IT
STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION
CENTER. HOWEVER...SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

at least they said "at any time" which means morning visible.. or the new set of microwaves over the next few hours..

[Aric Dunn]

well here is a NW wind at 1kt .. lol
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41101

[Scorpion]

GFDL finally develops..

[Aric Dunn]

about time.. its only the size of florida now.. lol

[Scorpion]

[Fego]

if we are in the middle of the eclipse, when the satellite resumes?