ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Gustywind]

it,s updated at NRL, recently, 16,0N/55,9W, 30KTS, 1006 MB

Tkanks, you're right my friend.

[tgenius]

Now the question is will we have Erika @ 11am or waiting for recon? I imagine with the proximity to the islands it may warrant the upgrade @ 11.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Got to go to work, but looking at the ULL moving NNE the shear might relax and this will probably develop today.

[xironman]

AL, 94, 2009090106, , BEST, 0, 160N, 559W, 30, 1006, DB

Pretty close to the 16N 56W benchmark.

[Gustywind]

94L beginning to approach closely the Lesser Antilles...

[knotimpaired]

:uarrow: The above new position is from Best Track that just updated and NRL picks up.

AL, 94, 2009090106, , BEST, 0, 160N, 559W, 30, 1006, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

According to Google Earth it is 386.31 miles SE of our house

[storms NC]

Is this a eye about to open here?

[HURAKAN]

Overshooting top!

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Models continue to trend right. Anyway I don't think this is going to be a Florida threat or maybe not even US threat (still not sure about US though, especially from NC northward). For FL, it just won't go there with such weak ridging. If you look at the 00Z ECMWF, it shows a pretty weak system and it still gets pull north.

I will call it now. It's not coming to FL and likely not going to impact the CONUS either if it develops into a significant system. All the data points at a classic recurve setup also should it develop into a significant system. Maybe a Bermuda threat?? Novia Scotia?

[jlauderdal]

Today we'll have Erika. Time to head to the office.

Hope you have plenty of coffee waiting there.

57's weekend is in jeopardy, not good

[Thunder44]

QS pass at 9:46 UTC this morning, doesn't show a closed circulation:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... Bas100.png



Buoy obs show south winds, suggesting what center there is still poorly defined and mostly to west of the convection. Pressures are also rising:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41101

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

[BigA]

9:30 UTC QuicSCAT http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas26.png Wicked close to a closed circulation, and if it gets it, it´s Erika.

[lostsole]

Whoa!!! Look at that convection, what happened overnight???? looks like a cat 2 from sat images!

[jlauderdal]

Whoa!!! Look at that convection, what happened overnight???? looks like a cat 2 from sat images!

and the eye on this cat 2 looking storm is where?

[Gustywind]

Hearing the radio right now, one of our Pro Met of Meteo-France is saying that it's matter of hours to see TD 5... During the day we should see TD 5 given this forecaster of Meteo-France Guadeloupe, he was pretty affirmative about the arrival of TD 5! He expected very bad weather conditions on the Northern Leewards Islands tommorow night.
Let's wait and see what could happens during the next couple of hours...

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well looking good but its becoming more clear the threat to the CONUS continues to dimish. It's nearly impossible that it will hit FL or the GOM it looks like (see models thread)

I agree with Derek, those looking for a Florida or CONUS threat should probably look elsewhere. That perma-trough is coming back to save the CONUS it looks like yet again. Have we yet to see any kind of real Bermuda High this summer? Unbelievable how strong the East coast trough is this summer.....

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 011148
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
WINDS TO GALE FORCE EAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...MICROWAVE DATA
INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS NOT YET WELL-DEFINED AT THE
SURFACE. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS
AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[funster]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well looking good but its becoming more clear the threat to the CONUS continues to dimish. It's nearly impossible that it will hit FL or the GOM it looks like (see models thread)

I agree with Derek, those looking for a Florida or CONUS threat should probably look elsewhere. That perma-trough is coming back to save the CONUS it looks like yet again. Have we yet to see any kind of real Bermuda High this summer? Unbelievable how strong the East coast trough is this summer.....

A trough won't necessarily protect NC coast and New England. Seems the big high pressure has been in the middle of the country and out west this summer.

[HURAKAN]

Reminds me a lot of Fay (2008) and Claudette (2003).

[senorpepr]

it,s updated at NRL, recently, 16,0N/55,9W, 30KTS, 1006 MB

Tkanks, you're right my friend.

The position on NRL is several hours old as it's the 06Z best track position from NHC. The 12Z update should be coming soon...