ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[marciacubed]

I am confused NHC reports she is moving N @ 10 mph but the track is NW??? Doesn't make sense to a untrained novice as myself

[jinftl]

NHC not even listing a 120-hour position as of the 4pm update...

BY 120 HOURS...SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT PROVIDE A 5-DAY POSITION FOR THIS
REASON.

[vacanechaser]

I am confused NHC reports she is moving N @ 10 mph but the track is NW??? Doesn't make sense to a untrained novice as myself

trust me, it does not make much sense to us either....




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Evil Jeremy]

At 4 AM this morning, Ida was forecast to be at 18.1N and 84.4W in 12 hours. Its actual position, 18.9N and 84.3W. It is .8 to the north, and .1 to the east of what was forecast.

[KWT]

Well the NHC keep expecting this one to bend NW but Ida still isn't and seems like its overall still not really bending much at all. Really is starting to look like Cuba is at more risk then the Yucatan.

[marciacubed]

I am confused NHC reports she is moving N @ 10 mph but the track is NW??? Doesn't make sense to a untrained novice as myself

trust me, it does not make much sense to us either....




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Sounds like I am in good company LOL!

[ozonepete]

Wow, been trying to catch up on all of these pages. Whew, that's a lot of posts which is great.

Anyway, it's becoming all but certain that Ida, because it keeps speeding up, will most likely get caught up in that trough and speed into the panhandle or big bend as a TS or initially a hurricane. I'm curious what the NHC will call it after ET has started. I live up here in the NE so I am very used to seeing these come up and/or go by as a pretty hybrid system. They will often be embedded in southerly winds of 30-50 knots and because of their converted or converting structure will still have winds at or well above 75mph on the EAST side. I would expect that could happen in this case too if it accelerates into the trough, i.e. you could have a very powerful ET cyclone. And if that occurs, then all of the strongest winds will shift to the NE quadrant and be strongest well away from the center. That could be interesting for central and north Florida...

I believe that the NHC will keep the name and call it a hurricane as long as it's a threat to land and not completely cold core. Is that correct, Derek?

[jinftl]

In 12 hours, the NHC expects Ida to be at 20.1N 84.8W....that would mean she would move 1.2 deg north and 0.5W....that would require a definite turn to the n-nw basically starting now....not a wobble or two, but a definite left bend.

Even with that track, the Yucatan wouldn't need to go under a hurricane warning. In fact, hurricane watches could possibly be dropped before long.

At 4 AM this morning, Ida was forecast to be at 18.1N and 84.4W in 12 hours. Its actual position, 18.9N and 84.3W. It is .8 to the north, and .1 to the east of what was forecast.

[Stormcenter]

The funny thing is the waters are just not warm enough anymore to support this type of storm.
The models are in la la land folks.

[ozonepete]

You can see why the models and the NHC see a westerly component inevitable. Look at that building ridge over the southeast. That's a pretty strong ridge. It just seems logical that Ida will have to eventually get some nudging westward from it unless it stops building in really soon.

And also, there are, as some of you guys have posted here, really strong easterly winds racing across the Bahamas and Florida now. And they are mostly composed of modified continental polar air that is gradually getting more moist - dewpoints in the high 60s. That may get entrained as soon as tomorrow and will probably have some kind of effect.

[Evil Jeremy]

The funny thing is the waters are just not warm enough anymore to support this type of storm.
The models are in la la land folks.

Some of the models are transitioning Ida to extratropical, in which case the waters would be able to support it.

[Aric Dunn]

now its really starting look better with a more expansive and uniform CDO

[jinftl]

From NWS Key West:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL

.THE COMBINATION OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA HAS
INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN. WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE SURPASSING 35-40 MPH.


...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TONIGHT.

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN AND ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND PEAK GUSTS
TO 35 TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ON BRIDGES...AS WELL AS ON
EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND EASTERN EDGES OF THE KEYS.

Sand Key buoy, just offshore Key West, is reporting sustained winds of 37kts (43 mph) and gusts to 42kts (48 mph)!

[ozonepete]

now its really starting look better with a more expansive and uniform CDO

Definitely. Also, I think it was Derek who said before, and I agree, the shear looks southerly, not southwesterly, and southerly shear will have much less effect on it as long as it's moving mostly north...

[RNGR]

The funny thing is the waters are just not warm enough anymore to support this type of storm.
The models are in la la land folks.

Some of the models are transitioning Ida to extratropical, in which case the waters would be able to support it.

not a cat 2-4. maybe a weak 1

[ozonepete]

Impressive. CDO much more circular and you can see the eye trying to pop near the center of it.

[jinftl]

The forecast tracks speak nothing of intensity.....several models have Ida losing its tropical characteristics in line with the timetable the current NHC forecast does (between Monday and Tuesday, while still south of the Gulf Coast).

In fact, I am not aware (I could be wrong) of any model showing Ida as a landfalling hurricane on the Gulf Coast.

The funny thing is the waters are just not warm enough anymore to support this type of storm.
The models are in la la land folks.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Normandy]

Yea, the eyewall being present on radar indicates its pretty well organized. The CDO is quite impressive. Its going over some prime fuel.

[dixiebreeze]

this is something for florida to watch because tropical or not I could see high winds from this system and some tornados too and heavy rains. I bet thats what the models are showing either way right? What are the models show as of now for central florida in the terms of how strong my winds could get?

Major flooding like in the '93 No Name Storm.