Bay of Bengal: Severe Cyclonic Storm AILA (02B)

KWT · #21 Postby **KWT** » Fri May 22, 2009 4:34 pm

That really does look like it should be upgraded, looks around 35-45kts already IMO given that wrapping that seems to occuring.

Derek Ortt · #22 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri May 22, 2009 5:05 pm

lets put it this way, the EC control is about 993mb... and it has a resolution far worse than the deterministic

Derek Ortt · #23 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri May 22, 2009 5:07 pm

the good news... it should be inland within 72 hours. The bad news... it should blow up by then and strike near Calcutta

#24 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri May 22, 2009 9:07 pm

Yep, that would likely be a named TS in the Atlantic. Looks to be about 35 kt.

#25 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri May 22, 2009 9:12 pm

22/2030 UTC 14.4N 87.0E T2.0/2.0 98B -- Bay of Bengal

Category 5 · #26 Postby **Category 5** » Fri May 22, 2009 10:13 pm

Judging by this they might be able to go ahead and upgrade.

Derek Ortt · #27 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri May 22, 2009 10:38 pm

keep in mind who is in charge of upgrading in the BOB

#28 Postby **theavocado** » Sat May 23, 2009 12:34 am

Derek Ortt wrote:keep in mind who is in charge of upgrading in the BOB

Even with DEMS in charge of the BoB, JTWC hasn't upgraded for US interests yet. Technically, the strongest winds are still around the SW quadrant into the SE quadrant, indicative that most of the strong flow is SW monsoon related. If you look at the recent scatt passes, the high winds haven't fully wrapped around the center. It would appear that most of the vorticity is being created by the SW monsoon and the small anti-cyclone over Myanmar and Burma. I personally would categorize this as a monsoon depression. That doesn't take away the fact that there are high winds, a closed LLCC and a risk to life, but that might explain why no one has issued a warning yet.

(edited because I don't know my SW from SE)

Chacor · #29 Postby **Chacor** » Sat May 23, 2009 2:05 am

WTIO21 PGTW 230530
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.2N 88.1E TO 20.6N 88.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 230500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.5N 88.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1N
86.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 88.2E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTH
OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
222349Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATE A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 222349Z
QUIKSCAT IMAGE (AS WELL AS AN EARLIER ASCAT IMAGE) SUPPORT A 25-30
KNOT LLCC WITH STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE
CONVECTION. THIS LLCC HAS BECOME STRONGER AND MORE DEFINED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND DEVELOPING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
INDIA. THE LLCC IS ALSO LOCATED OVER VERY WARM SST AND HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT WITH VERY HIGH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (GREATER
THAN 62 MM). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY LACKING OVER THE LLCC, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE QUICKLY IN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
FORECAST TO IMPROVE AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER INDIA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 240530Z.//

KWT · #30 Postby **KWT** » Sat May 23, 2009 3:52 am

I'm a little surprised they still haven't upgraded this system. ECM still going for a pretty strong system in 72hrs making landfall, certainly hope its wrong with that and it remains slack but even then with a large system flooding has to be a big concern.

Chacor · #31 Postby **Chacor** » Sat May 23, 2009 3:59 am

#32 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat May 23, 2009 6:23 am

#33 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat May 23, 2009 9:45 am

QuikSCAT showing 50-55 kt, am I seeing that correctly?

Derek Ortt · #34 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat May 23, 2009 10:08 am

CrazyC83 wrote:QuikSCAT showing 50-55 kt, am I seeing that correctly?

that MIGHT qualify the system to be upgraded to a deep depression by IMD

Chacor · #35 Postby **Chacor** » Sat May 23, 2009 10:45 am

You're totally ignoring the fact JTWC haven't even made it a TD.

Derek Ortt · #36 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat May 23, 2009 11:10 am

I honestly have no clue why JTWC has not upgraded either. I know they only upgrade if the winds are at or above 35KT... however, the data easily suggests that to be the case

I will say this much, this looks far better than Frances 1998 in the GOM when it was upgraded

#37 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat May 23, 2009 11:54 am

#38 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat May 23, 2009 11:55 am

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 23-05-2009

Tropical weather outlook for north Indian ocean (The bay of Bengal and Arabian sea) valid for next 24 hours issued at 1400 utc OF 23 MAY, 2009 based on 1200 UTC of 23 MAY, 2009 (.)

THE DEPRESSION OVER WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 23RD MAY 2009 NEAR LAT. 16.50 N AND LONG. 88.00 E, ABOUT 470 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PARADIP (42976), 600 KM SOUTH OF SAGAR ISLAND (42903) AND 650 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KHEPUPARA (41984).

SATELLITE IMAGeRY INDICATES PERSISTANT ORGANISED CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER AREA BETWEEN LAT. 11.00 N AND 18.50 N AND WEST OF LONG. 90.50 E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -700C AROUND THE SYSTEM.

sustained maximum SURFACE wind speed is estimated to be about 25 KNOTS. the state of the sea is rough to VERY rough around the system centre. the estimated CENTRAL pressure is about 994 hpa.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS AROUND 10-20 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM LIES CLOSE TO THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 170N IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER EAST CENTRAL BAY LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THERE IS A FEEBLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IN WESTERLIES ROUGHLY RUNNING ALONG 800 E TO THE NORTH OF 200 N. SEA SURFACE TEMPRATURES ARE ALSO FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS IT IS 0.50 TO 1.00 C ABOVE NORMAL. MAJORITY OF NWP MODELS ALSO SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AND LANDFALL OVER WEST BENGAL AND ADJOINING BANGLADESH COAST.

CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NEAR NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS WEST BENGAL-BANGLADESH COAST NEAR 890 E (ABOUT 100 KM EAST OF SAGAR ISLAND) BETWEEN 1200 AND 1500 UTC OF 25TH MAY 2009

Derek Ortt · #39 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat May 23, 2009 12:02 pm

how are they getting 25KT when QS has 50KT?

Dvorak is not everything

#40 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat May 23, 2009 12:52 pm

I agree, based on QuikSCAT it is 50 kt right now.

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