EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS (04E)

[Cookie]

things are picking up in the east pacfic

[cycloneye]

From the 2205 UTC discussion:

...DISCUSSION...
AN QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1256 UTC TODAY SHOWS A LOW PRES
CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 10N ON THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
109W/110W. CONVECTION ON THE NE SIDE OF THE LOW CAUSED MANY OF
THE RETRIEVALS TO BE RAIN-FLAGGED IN THAT QUADRANT...BUT THERE
ARE A FEW RELIABLE 20 TO 25 KT RETRIEVALS IN THE N AND S
QUADRANTS. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED NEAR 14N106W TO 08N124W. CURRENTLY...THERE IS NO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED WITH THIS LOW...BUT CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2154.shtml?

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Code Red

324
ABPZ20 KNHC 092347
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUL 9 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR FRIDAY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS...ARE CENTERED
ABOUT 900 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

382
WHXX01 KMIA 100037
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0037 UTC FRI JUL 10 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP952009) 20090710 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090710 0000 090710 1200 090711 0000 090711 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.1N 110.2W 10.4N 112.2W 10.7N 114.4W 11.0N 116.6W
BAMD 10.1N 110.2W 9.8N 112.0W 9.6N 114.1W 9.4N 116.2W
BAMM 10.1N 110.2W 9.9N 112.1W 9.8N 114.1W 9.7N 116.1W
LBAR 10.1N 110.2W 10.1N 111.9W 10.1N 114.5W 10.3N 117.3W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090712 0000 090713 0000 090714 0000 090715 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.2N 118.9W 11.4N 123.5W 11.7N 128.6W 11.9N 133.3W
BAMD 9.5N 118.4W 10.6N 123.3W 11.7N 128.2W 11.9N 132.3W
BAMM 9.6N 118.3W 10.3N 123.1W 11.3N 127.4W 11.9N 131.1W
LBAR 10.3N 120.5W 10.9N 126.0W 11.7N 130.7W 11.1N 131.2W
SHIP 53KTS 63KTS 66KTS 69KTS
DSHP 53KTS 63KTS 66KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.1N LONCUR = 110.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 109.1W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 9.2N LONM24 = 107.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

GFDL and HWRF makes this a powerful hurricane.

GFDL



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

HWRF



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Macrocane]

I don't think it will be a major hurricane but it could be stronger than Andres, it seems that wind shear will be favorable the next 3-4 days and SST are warm enough to support moderate development.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS not at all bullish on this developing, and maybe its right, but if it does develop, look at the orientation of the 500 mb ridge!

[Cyclenall]

If the GFDL model run at 18z is correct, then that might be indicative of El Nino like conditions starting to set in. Usually mature hurricanes that remain major out that far west in the Epac happen during El Nino years (like 2006). I'm curious as to whether the horribly boring pattern in the Epac is about to come to an end (abruptly) of crappy systems that don't form very quick or strengthen to anything past what I consider mediocre. The HWRF shows only a strong CAT1 but interestingly enough, it intensifies fastest when it is past 125W. The NOGAPS is showing a train of weak TC's (3) in the Epac.

My thoughts in general for the Epac in the 2009 season is that it could start out similar to the 2006 season where there was not much occurring except a few weak storms and then a long time of quiet (the period of quietness being different this year), followed by an active season for the remainder of the season. Hurricane Bud first formed on July 11 2006...similar to when Invest 95E could begin developing.

On a side note, does anyone know why the NRL gives a forbidden message on occasion?

On another side note, what is the furthest east category 5 hurricane recorded in the eastern Pacific?

[HurricaneRobert]

There aren't that many recorded category 5 hurricanes, but the 1959 one would be the furthest east.

[Macrocane]

Hurricane Kenna was very close to Mexican Coast when it was a Cat 5 too.

[Cyclenall]

The 1959 category 5 was one of the first ones I thought of but I wasn't sure if there had ever been one that was where most Epac TC's start (under central Mexico where the water temperatures are the highest).

[senorpepr]

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 100845
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 10 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL AWAY FROM LAND...

AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST OR ABOUT
900 MILES...1445 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...10.0N 111.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG



ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 10 2009

THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AND IS BECOMING DETACHED FROM THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 0600 UTC FROM
TAFB AND SAB WERE T1.5 AND T2.0...RESPECTIVELY...ALTHOUGH DATA-T
NUMBERS AT THE TIME WERE 2.0 AND 2.5. RECENTLY...A CLUSTER OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BECOME CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND A
PROMINENT CONVECTIVE BAND HAS FORMED WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE STRUCTURE OF THE CIRCULATION AND THE CONVECTION
HAVE BECOME WELL-DEFINED ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THE HIGHER END OF THE
ESTIMATES...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM AS A
25-KT DEPRESSION.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AT AN INITIAL MOTION OF 275/7. THE SUITE
OF GLOBAL MODELS SHOWS FAIRLY TIGHT CLUSTERING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD AND INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL NOT
MAKE MUCH OF A NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DUE TO THE REMNANTS
OF BLANCA AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE OREGON COAST...BUT THE
MODELS QUICKLY RE-BUILD THE RIDGE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND
MOVE AT A CONSISTENT 11 OR 12 KNOTS IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES GENERALLY JUST SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AND SHADES CLOSER TO THE TRACKS OF THE GFDL AND HWRF.

OCEAN TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION ARE
AROUND 28-29C AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS MUCH TO LIMIT
INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW ONLY SLOW
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS WITH QUICKER
INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER. THE GFDL PRODUCES THE MOST
STRENGTHENING AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO NEAR 90 KT WITHIN 5 DAYS
WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS LEVEL OFF THE INTENSITY AROUND 70
KT FROM 84-120 HOURS. SINCE IT IS NOT APPARENT WHAT WOULD LIMIT
INTENSIFICATION AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE...AND CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND HWRF
MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 10.0N 111.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 10.2N 112.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 10.4N 114.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 10.6N 117.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 11.0N 119.6W 45 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 12.0N 124.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 13.0N 129.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 15/0600Z 13.5N 134.5W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Nothing really to stop this from strengthening quite a lot, looking at the track it seems the classic track for a major hurricane IMO.

[cyclonic chronic]

really nice blow up over the center now. like the discussion says there isnt much in the way to limit intensification. sure would be nice 2 track a cane on our side of the world (well, kind of)!! come on carlos.

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Best track

Time=12:00 UTC.
Position=Latitud,10.0N - Longitud,112.2W.
Winds=30 kts.
Pressure=1007 mbs
System=Tropical Depression.

EP, 04, 2009071012, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1122W, 30, 1007, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[Derek Ortt]

If the GFDL model run at 18z is correct, then that might be indicative of El Nino like conditions starting to set in. Usually mature hurricanes that remain major out that far west in the Epac happen during El Nino years (like 2006). I'm curious as to whether the horribly boring pattern in the Epac is about to come to an end (abruptly) of crappy systems that don't form very quick or strengthen to anything past what I consider mediocre. The HWRF shows only a strong CAT1 but interestingly enough, it intensifies fastest when it is past 125W. The NOGAPS is showing a train of weak TC's (3) in the Epac.

My thoughts in general for the Epac in the 2009 season is that it could start out similar to the 2006 season where there was not much occurring except a few weak storms and then a long time of quiet (the period of quietness being different this year), followed by an active season for the remainder of the season. Hurricane Bud first formed on July 11 2006...similar to when Invest 95E could begin developing.

On a side note, does anyone know why the NRL gives a forbidden message on occasion?

On another side note, what is the furthest east category 5 hurricane recorded in the eastern Pacific?

it is also quite common to see storms threaten Hawaii during the east during LA NINA. CPAC development is typical of el nino

[HURAKAN]

10/1200 UTC 9.6N 112.4W T2.0/2.0 04E -- East Pacific

No change from 6z

[HURAKAN]

"Eye-feature"? j/k

Looking good.