CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEKI (03C)

[cycloneye]

SHIP gets to hurricane status.

WHXX01 KMIA 171822
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1822 UTC SAT OCT 17 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (CP962009) 20091017 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091017 1800 091018 0600 091018 1800 091019 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.4N 145.4W 10.5N 147.7W 11.0N 150.2W 11.8N 153.0W
BAMD 10.4N 145.4W 10.5N 148.4W 10.8N 151.5W 11.5N 154.6W
BAMM 10.4N 145.4W 10.5N 148.0W 10.9N 150.8W 11.8N 153.5W
LBAR 10.4N 145.4W 10.4N 148.6W 10.8N 152.0W 11.5N 155.2W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 36KTS 47KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 36KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091019 1800 091020 1800 091021 1800 091022 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 155.9W 16.2N 160.5W 18.9N 162.2W 20.3N 164.1W
BAMD 12.4N 157.4W 14.4N 162.1W 16.2N 163.8W 16.9N 164.7W
BAMM 13.0N 156.0W 16.0N 160.2W 18.9N 161.7W 20.0N 163.1W
LBAR 12.7N 158.3W 15.1N 162.9W 17.3N 162.9W 18.6N 163.2W
SHIP 58KTS 69KTS 66KTS 65KTS
DSHP 58KTS 69KTS 66KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.4N LONCUR = 145.4W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 11.3N LONM12 = 141.4W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 11.2N LONM24 = 137.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Kingarabian]

Ahh so much for a Hawaiian Hurricane...

[HURAKAN]

[Macrocane]

Euro predicts a strong hurricane on CPAC too:

Euro 144 h.

You can see it west of Hawaii

[Chacor]

ACPN50 PHFO 180145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SAT OCT 17 2009

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HILO IS
MOVING WEST AROUND 15 MPH. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$
DONALDSON

[Kingarabian]

Looking better then earlier. (IMO)

[theavocado]

Looking better then earlier. (IMO)

Is it me, or did this jump 10 degrees in 12 hours? Didn't it just enter the CPHC AOR in earlier today, and now it's past 150W?

[Kingarabian]

Looking better then earlier. (IMO)

Is it me, or did this jump 10 degrees in 12 hours? Didn't it just enter the CPHC AOR in earlier today, and now it's past 150W?

Well our time (Hawaii) it came in last night.

[HURAKAN]

Looking better organized

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 170630.GIF

[HURAKAN]

951
WHXX01 KMIA 181253
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1253 UTC SUN OCT 18 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (CP962009) 20091018 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091018 1200 091019 0000 091019 1200 091020 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.1N 152.1W 9.7N 154.4W 10.7N 156.9W 12.1N 159.5W
BAMD 9.1N 152.1W 9.5N 155.2W 10.1N 158.3W 10.8N 161.4W
BAMM 9.1N 152.1W 9.7N 154.8W 10.5N 157.3W 11.6N 160.0W
LBAR 9.1N 152.1W 9.5N 153.9W 10.7N 156.4W 12.1N 158.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 51KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091020 1200 091021 1200 091022 1200 091023 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 161.8W 16.3N 165.2W 17.9N 167.0W 18.9N 169.9W
BAMD 11.6N 164.4W 13.2N 168.6W 13.4N 171.6W 13.5N 176.1W
BAMM 12.8N 162.3W 15.6N 165.2W 16.9N 166.6W 17.7N 169.3W
LBAR 13.8N 161.4W 15.8N 166.0W 16.8N 167.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 62KTS 71KTS 73KTS 71KTS
DSHP 62KTS 71KTS 73KTS 71KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.1N LONCUR = 152.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 9.2N LONM12 = 150.9W DIRM12 = 261DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 9.4N LONM24 = 149.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 65NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[Macrocane]

Invest 96-C has become a lot better organized today. GFDL and HWRF have been predicting since yesterday's runs that it will become a major hurricane. It would be the 5th major hurricane for this active Pacific (EPAC+CPAC) hurricane season, and the strongest tropical cyclone on CPAC since Ioke.

GFDL 108 h

HWRF 108 h

[theavocado]

Invest 96-C has become a lot better organized today.

CPHC seems to agree, it's now showing up as 03C on the FNMOC TC Page. A warning must be imminent.

[Kingarabian]

000 AM HST SUN OCT 18 2009

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center will begin to issue advisories on a developing tropical system centered 650 miles south of the Big Island at 1100 am HST.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through early Tuesday morning.

[Derek Ortt]

WTPA22 PHFO 182055
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
2100 UTC SUN OCT 18 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 154.7W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 154.7W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 154.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 9.3N 156.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 10.7N 159.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 12.1N 162.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 25SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 13.2N 163.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 35SE 25SW 65NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.4N 166.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 35SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 17.4N 167.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 19.1N 169.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.6N 154.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

WTPA32 PHFO 182056
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
1100 AM HST SUN OCT 18 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C FORMS FAR SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...

AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THREE-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 154.7 WEST
OR ABOUT 720 MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII AND ABOUT 905 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.
THREE-C WILL TAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...8.6N 154.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[CrazyC83]

Forecasting Hurricane Neki here.

[Kingarabian]

WTPA22 PHFO 182055
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
2100 UTC SUN OCT 18 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 154.7W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 154.7W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 154.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 9.3N 156.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 10.7N 159.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 12.1N 162.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 25SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 13.2N 163.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 35SE 25SW 65NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.4N 166.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 35SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 17.4N 167.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 19.1N 169.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.6N 154.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

WTPA32 PHFO 182056
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
1100 AM HST SUN OCT 18 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C FORMS FAR SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...

AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THREE-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 154.7 WEST
OR ABOUT 720 MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII AND ABOUT 905 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.
THREE-C WILL TAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...8.6N 154.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

Can you link me please? I cant find it on the CPHC page.

Edit: Sorry finnaly it shows up.

[HurricaneRobert]

In six hours its going to jump all the way to Hawaii?

[cycloneye]

Here is the discussion that came out very delayed after the advisory came out.

WTPA42 PHFO 182125
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
1100 AM HST SUN OCT 18 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C HAS FORMED SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. OVERNIGHT...A LOW IN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH HAD BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED NO CLEARCUT LOW
LEVEL CENTER AND CONVECTION WAS MAINLY AROUND THE FRINGE OF THE
LARGE CIRCULATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
WELL-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A LARGE AREA OF
ACTIVE CONVECTION JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL CYCLONES
THAT FORM WITHIN LARGE...PRE-EXISTING CIRCULATIONS OFTEN DEVELOP
RAPIDLY ONCE CONVECTION FORMS NEAR THE CENTER. THAT WAS THE CASE
WITH THREE-C.

THE DISTURBANCE THAT BECAME THREE-C HAD BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
SOUTHWEST...STEERED BY DEEP EAST NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...A STRONG TROUGH ALOFT AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT NEAR MIDWAY ARE DIGGING SOUTHEAST. THE
MEAN FLOW AHEAD OF THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND
STEER THREE-C ON A TRACK TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST GRADUALLY
CURVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON SUCH A TRACK THROUGH 96 HOURS. OUR FORECAST TRACK IS
DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE OF THE FAVORED TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE. AFTER 96 HOURS...AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...THREE-C WILL TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST.

THREE-C IS OVER 83 DEGREE F WATER...WHICH SHOULD BE AMPLE TO SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FOUR
DAYS ALONG OUR FORECAST TRACK. THE SHIPS MODEL IS FORECASTING
MODEST SHEAR...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 16 KT FROM THE ENE OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND SHOWS SHEAR DECREASING AFTER THAT. WE SEE NO REASON
WHY THREE-C WILL NOT INTENSIFY STEADILY FOR THE NEXT FOUR DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 8.6N 154.7W 25 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 9.3N 156.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 10.7N 159.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 12.1N 162.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 13.2N 163.8W 55 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 15.4N 166.3W 60 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 17.4N 167.8W 70 KT
120HR VT 23/1800Z 19.1N 169.6W 75 KT

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[Kingarabian]

Is there a chance of this being the Hawaiian Hurricane that makes landfall that Derek said?