ATL : INVEST 93L

[Lurker]

Dr Lyons from TWC just said the center is moving NNE along the frontal boundary - said heavy rain for South Florida.

[dizzyfish]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
324 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009
...snip

DURING MONDAY WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
LIFTING NORTH FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SOME OF THE MODELS ATTEMPT TO
DEVELOP A LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THEN MOVE IT NORTH NORTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WHILE
OTHERS SHOW LITTLE OR NO DEVELOPMENT AT ALL. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
LEAVES LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO THE OVERALL EVOLUTION IF
ANY WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WILL BUMP UP RAIN CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY RANGE
(POPS 60%) WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM...THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON WHAT BECOMES
OF THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO OUR SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT
IN AGREEMENT ON WHAT...IF ANYTHING...WILL MOVE OUR WAY. PROBABLY THE
BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS POINT IS TO LEAVE THE RIDGE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN PLENTIFUL REGARDLESS...SO WILL KEEP
THE 50 POPS IN PLACE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE THOSE
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY.

...snip

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[cycloneye]

Take a look how things look at the upper atmosphere.That upper low in the Bay of Campeche continues to retrograde westward,allowing an upper high to build behind.

[tailgater]

Look for the NAKED swirl just east of the small island east of Belize

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak Sat Estimate Position

27/1145 UTC 20.1N 84.7W TOO WEAK 93L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[SouthFLTropics]

Let's hope that conditions don't get set up for too much development...I live on the east coast of FLA but I've been working on the west coast for the past 8 weeks. Let me tell ya that the GOM water is absolutely HOT right now...At the beach the other day I think they said the water was 92 degrees...In other words...Nitrous Oxide for a brewing storm!!!

SFT

[wxman57]

Nothing there now but scattered convection across western Caribbean. No LLC, no swirls, no pressure falls, no evidence of increasing organization. In fact, convection is less concentrated today. That'll make formation of an LLC tough. The most likely scenario is that moisture tracks northward then northeast across Florida on Monday night/Tuesday then accelerates up the front/trof without development. Could be some decent rain for central to south FL. Tropical threat seems minimal at this time.

[Derek Ortt]

quite disorganized this morning. Back to worrying about people calling all ins on J 6 and winning

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Best Track Position

Just SE of the island of Cozumel.

AL, 93, 2009062712, , BEST, 0, 192N, 862W, 25, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[Lurker]

Dr Lyons conveyed a similar message in regards to the heavy rain threat for South Florida. He did say though that conditions could be quite favorable for development if it makes it into the Southern GOM.

Nothing there now but scattered convection across western Caribbean. No LLC, no swirls, no pressure falls, no evidence of increasing organization. In fact, convection is less concentrated today. That'll make formation of an LLC tough. The most likely scenario is that moisture tracks northward then northeast across Florida on Monday night/Tuesday then accelerates up the front/trof without development. Could be some decent rain for central to south FL. Tropical threat seems minimal at this time.

[wxman57]

Dr Lyons conveyed a similar message in regards to the heavy rain threat for South Florida. He did say though that conditions could be quite favorable for development if it makes it into the Southern GOM.

It doesn't just have to make it into the Gulf, it has to develop a circulation center with organized convection for it to have a shot at significant intensification. That'll be the hard part. Getting into the Gulf is easy.

[wxman57]

Other than the HWRF's high end Cat 2 headed for Tampa, 0Z models are unimpressed.


I'm code beige, 5%, unofficially.


I guess we'll see what tomorrow brings.

Seems like a good code. BAM models clueless in taking it slowly NW for 5 days. Go with dynamic. Probably just some rain for FL. That's good. I'll post a plot here when it's available.

[Derek Ortt]

does not matter how favorable conditions are for development. There has to be something to develop and only HWRF shows anything developing (and it is initialized with a closed circulation, which this does not have)

[ronjon]

From this mornings VIS SAT, looks like some sort of circulation center (LLC or MLC) is near 20.5N-84.5W. I don't see any turning SE of Cozumel. Convection also seems to be on the increase. Intersting how the HWRF model really intensifies this system while the GFDL is unimpressed. I agree with wxman57 that its less impressive today than yesterday - however, it will be moving into a favorable environment in the GOM - watch and wait mode. At the very least, should push some heavy rain into the FL peninsula.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

[Lurker]

Right......What you are saying is it doesn't have much of shot of development even after reaching the gulf. I'm hoping you are right.

[Dionne]

Irregardless of color code or models......today seems like the right time to stash fuel supplies for the season.

[caneman]

Irregardless of color code or models......today seems like the right time to stash fuel supplies for the season.

When you say fuel are you refering to Gasoline or Liquor??

[srainhoutx]

Looks very disorganized this morning. I'm having doubts anything will become of 93L other than some rain for FL.

[wxman57]

Right......What you are saying is it doesn't have much of shot of development even after reaching the gulf. I'm hoping you are right.

Correct - not unless it has a circulation when it enters the Gulf, along with some decent convection around an LLC. Otherwise, it's just rain for FL.

[Lurker]

Right......What you are saying is it doesn't have much of shot of development even after reaching the gulf. I'm hoping you are right.

Correct - not unless it has a circulation when it enters the Gulf, along with some decent convection around an LLC. Otherwise, it's just rain for FL.

That answers my question thanks.