WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[cycloneye]

We are getting heavy rains from TD23 now. I went out to pick up a pizza and you could tell this wasn't the usual passing shower. Some street flooding already. I thought I was getting a cold from the Lupit adventure in the Philippines but TD23 has me all fired up. I'll be good to go filming tomorrow.

You are in Guam or in Saipan? As I see it,Saipan will get more than Guam.

[oaba09]

We are getting heavy rains from TD23 now. I went out to pick up a pizza and you could tell this wasn't the usual passing shower. Some street flooding already. I thought I was getting a cold from the Lupit adventure in the Philippines but TD23 has me all fired up. I'll be good to go filming tomorrow.

Haha good luck w/ that......

[JTE50]

We are getting heavy rains from TD23 now. I went out to pick up a pizza and you could tell this wasn't the usual passing shower. Some street flooding already. I thought I was getting a cold from the Lupit adventure in the Philippines but TD23 has me all fired up. I'll be good to go filming tomorrow.

You are in Guam or in Saipan? As I see it,Saipan will get more than Guam.

Guam now - I go where the storms go

just issued:
AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR GUAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM
1115 PM CHST MON OCT 26 2009

AN AIRPORT THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CHST.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE GUAM
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT COMPLEX. IN A ADDITION...WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. BE ALERT AND TAKE
PRECAUTIONS AS REQUIRED.

[drdavisjr]

JTWC new track

[oaba09]

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[drdavisjr]

JTWC UPGRADES TROPICAL STORM

WTPN32 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 13.2N 148.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 148.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 13.8N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 14.4N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.9N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.1N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.5N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.4N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 14.9N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 147.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
EAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.//
NNNN

[oaba09]

Seems to be moving more west than north...

[drdavisjr]

It's hard to determine the center without looking at the Dvorak imagery

[drdavisjr]

metenthusiast, what's your plans for your dyalysis? Are you going to reschedule?

[oaba09]

Going to sleep now...Gotta work tomorrow.....

[metenthusiast]

metenthusiast, what's your plans for your dyalysis? Are you going to reschedule?

Good evening guys! Just came home from my dialysis treatment. My next would be on Saturday so I'm closely monitoring things. Schedule's a bit tight on the clinic right now, but I will re-schedule if necessity asks for it.

This might sound ridiculous but could we get a more stronger and distinct forecast for this 2 - 3 days from now. I want to make a decision whether to re-schedule or not the earliest time possible so that I could get a better chance for a slot.

Thanks!

[metenthusiast]

by the way, did ketsana also came from the east? I found this track of ketsana:

[drdavisjr]

Going to sleep now...Gotta work tomorrow.....

Have a good one...

[drdavisjr]

by the way, did ketsana also came from the east? I found this track of ketsana:

Yes, it did.

[metenthusiast]

by the way, did ketsana also came from the east? I found this track of ketsana:

Yes, it did.

This is not good. Most of those systems brought devastation when it hit. I guess it's because of the momentum? I just hope the forecast for this one drastically changes (though I'm not entirely confident in that)...

[JTE50]

Latest wind distrubition graphic from NWSO Guam

[drdavisjr]

This might sound ridiculous but could we get a more stronger and distinct forecast for this 2 - 3 days from now. I want to make a decision whether to re-schedule or not the earliest time possible so that I could get a better chance for a slot.

Thanks!

I sure hope it does change. Would I wait? No, I wouldn't.

If you have your dialysis earlier, would that affect your health?

[HURAKAN]

JMA:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 14N 149E WNW 15 KT.

[metenthusiast]

This might sound ridiculous but could we get a more stronger and distinct forecast for this 2 - 3 days from now. I want to make a decision whether to re-schedule or not the earliest time possible so that I could get a better chance for a slot.

Thanks!

I sure hope it does change. Would I wait? No, I wouldn't.

If you have your dialysis earlier, would that affect your health?

A little bit, due to the irregularity of the treatment rhythm, but not as bad as canceling. I am thinking of re-scheduling on Friday, although the real problem would be the vacancy of slots in the clinic.