ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[ronjon]

Current wind shear from 10-20 kts from PR to central Hispanola then it increases to near 30 kts in the influence of the ULL. I expect 10-20 kts of SW shear as Ana tracks toward the bahamas. Not ideal, but not a cyclone killer either.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

[KWT]

Hmm they are probably debating on whether to keep Ana or not I'd guess...

Sanibel, as I said in the other thread, the upper level conditions are totally different between those two systems. Still I agree, even if this is just a tropical wave, I think it would be getting attention...

for example if this was a invest for the first time people would be over it like a rash even if it only slightly strengthened.

[jlauderdal]

[srainhoutx]

NHC keeps Ana a depression.

[cycloneye]

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009

...ANA BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PUERTO RICO...

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WEST OF PUNTA PALENQUE ON
THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA...AND EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

AT 1100 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND
ANGUILLA.

AT 11 AM AST...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF GUADELOUPE HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GUADELOUPE...ST.
MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
AND ST. MAARTEN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST OR ABOUT
75 MILES...125 KM...SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 255
MILES...415 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 28 MPH. A CONTINUED
TRACK IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION...WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD
SPEED...IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...ANA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE LATER
TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.3N 66.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/CANGIALOSI

000
WTNT42 KNHC 171500
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009

THE CENTER OR WAVE AXIS OF ANA PASSED OVER BUOY 42060 AROUND
0830Z...AND IF A CENTER EXISTED AT THAT TIME IT WAS SOUTH OF THE
BUOY. THERE WAS ONE SHIP REPORT WITH A LIGHT WEST WIND AT 12Z.
SINCE THAT TIME...NEW CONVECTION WITH A MID-LEVEL SPIN HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO. GIVEN THESE
HINTS...WE WILL CONTINUE ADVISORIES AT LEAST UNTIL A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATES ANA THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH A CENTER POSITION ESTIMATE BASED ON A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND
THE MID-LEVEL ROTATION SEEN IN THE RADAR DATA...THE INITIAL MOTION
IS 285/24. ANA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE IN
THE SHORT TERM GIVEN THE POOR DEFINITION OF THE CIRCULATION...
INTERACTION WITH LAND...AND POTENTIAL REFORMATION OF THE CENTER.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS FOR THE 850 MB VORTICITY CENTER. TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...ANA OR ITS REMNANTS COULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK
STEERING OVER OR NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE UNCERTAIN EXISTENCE OF
AN ACTUAL TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE LAND MASSES IN THE PATH OF THE
SYSTEM...AND HIGHLY DIVERGENT OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. THE ENVIRONMENT
OF ANA IS STILL CHARACTERIZED BY SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...BOTH GLOBAL AND REGIONAL...ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY DISSIPATE
THE CYCLONE...WHILE THE STATISTICAL MODELS SHOW RESTRENGHENING. IF
ANA SURVIVES ITS PATH OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND EMERGES TO THE
NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
MORE FAVORABLE UPPER WIND PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT THERE.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS ANA AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS...ADMITTEDLY...
SOMETHING OF A HEDGE BETWEEN TWO MORE LIKELY ALTERNATIVES...THAT OF
A TROPICAL STORM NORTH OF THE ISLANDS OR IMMINENT DISSIPATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 17.3N 66.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 18.6N 69.4W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 18/1200Z 20.5N 73.7W 30 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 22.3N 77.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 23.7N 79.4W 30 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 26.5N 82.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 28.0N 83.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 22/1200Z 30.0N 83.0W 25 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/CANGIALOSI

[eastcoastFL]

come on ana. Keep up the fight

at least you are honest you want it and arent afraid to say it, gold star for you. Mid Level tropical storm would be good to add some excitement around florida.

Yup. I will admit a little wind and rain might be fun. Bill can stay away. But give me a little TS outta Ana and I will be good.

[Sanibel]

I'm a little more up to speed after viewing the NOAA Floater. I think the initialization point on the plots is correct now. Cycloneye's radar image center is probably close to correct - HOWEVER - it is probably a sheared reflection of the true surface center further south as seen in the Floater and on the track plots. It could be jumping, but probably isn't. Therefore the actual track for this is probably right over Hispaniola as shown in the new model tracks. So wise storm watchers should probably see what survives Hispaniola before determining Ana's future.


Personally, I suspect we'll see another Claudette when it heads towards Florida.

[Blown Away]

The NHC is giving her a chance!! Her life is depending on her skirting N of DR!!

[caneseddy]

Some snippets from the discussion

NEW CONVECTION WITH A MID-LEVEL SPIN HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO. GIVEN THESE
HINTS...WE WILL CONTINUE ADVISORIES AT LEAST UNTIL A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATES ANA THIS AFTERNOON

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS ANA AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS...ADMITTEDLY...
SOMETHING OF A HEDGE BETWEEN TWO MORE LIKELY ALTERNATIVES...THAT OF
A TROPICAL STORM NORTH OF THE ISLANDS OR IMMINENT DISSIPATION.

[ObsessedMiami]

"THIS IS...ADMITTEDLY...
SOMETHING OF A HEDGE BETWEEN TWO MORE LIKELY ALTERNATIVES...THAT OF
A TROPICAL STORM NORTH OF THE ISLANDS OR IMMINENT DISSIPATION."

What a nail-biter LOL

[canes04]

If she tracks north of DR and slows down, GAME ON!!
SFL media will go nuts tonight.

[Sanibel]

All eyes will be on the shear tendency map.

[jlauderdal]

come on ana. Keep up the fight

at least you are honest you want it and arent afraid to say it, gold star for you. Mid Level tropical storm would be good to add some excitement around florida.

Yup. I will admit a little wind and rain might be fun. Bill can stay away. But give me a little TS outta Ana and I will be good.

si senor,

we always prefer a little ana to a big bill

[AtlanticWind]

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS ANA AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS...ADMITTEDLY...
SOMETHING OF A HEDGE BETWEEN TWO MORE LIKELY ALTERNATIVES...THAT OF
A TROPICAL STORM NORTH OF THE ISLANDS OR IMMINENT DISSIPATION.

A weather man admits he has no idea !!!!

[Category 5]

Surprised they didnt kill this.

[jlauderdal]

If she tracks north of DR and slows down, GAME ON!!
SFL media will go nuts tonight.

they were already busy this weekend and again this morning, poor rene marsh on seven having to pump a story about home depot, poor girl like she went to J school for that kind of nonsense

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=106216

[robbielyn]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12 looks like claudette and ana are squishing the ull ove the bahamas like a sandwich.

[otowntiger]

So if she can somehow reform and pop up north of PR/Hispanola it could get interesting, unless shear and dry air are still a factor in that area. Is it? Can an informed source enlighten me? For some reason storms/systems seem dead set on committing suicide running into those mountainous landmasses there. I guess we'll see. Ana is one persistant little lady.

[jlauderdal]

"THIS IS...ADMITTEDLY...
SOMETHING OF A HEDGE BETWEEN TWO MORE LIKELY ALTERNATIVES...THAT OF
A TROPICAL STORM NORTH OF THE ISLANDS OR IMMINENT DISSIPATION."

What a nail-biter LOL

if it survives this is was a highlight for sure

TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...ANA OR ITS REMNANTS COULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK
STEERING OVER OR NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED.

[robbielyn]

MLC's aren't affect much by mountains I don't think ana is going poof. She's the train that could. C'mon ana you can do it.