ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Will we see the LLC Swirl continue west? or the Convection reform a new LLC. Could Danny give birth to Erica later on?

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM DANNY
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 28/1800Z, 29/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0805A DANNY
C. 28/1515Z
D. 31.8N 74.4W
E. 28/1700Z TO 29/0001Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


So far nothing from this plane

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KNHC 281600
AF302 0805A DANNY HDOB 02 20090828
155030 3201N 08112W 9538 00531 0138 +212 +172 080015 016 999 999 03
155100 3201N 08114W 9198 00859 0152 +193 +172 093012 013 999 999 03
155130 3202N 08115W 8855 01198 0167 +169 +169 109013 014 999 999 03
155200 3203N 08114W 8540 01504 0172 +148 +148 112016 017 999 999 05
155230 3204N 08113W 8198 01845 0156 +139 +139 114014 016 999 999 05
155300 3205N 08111W 7921 02154 9990 +123 +999 128012 013 999 999 05
155330 3206N 08110W 7647 02420 9990 +105 +999 135011 011 999 999 05
155400 3207N 08108W 7354 02749 9990 +085 +999 110011 012 999 999 05
155430 3209N 08107W 7083 03062 9990 +060 +999 089013 014 999 999 05
155500 3210N 08105W 6793 03383 9990 +036 +999 105017 018 999 999 05
155530 3211N 08104W 6600 03675 9990 +018 +999 120015 017 999 999 05
155600 3212N 08102W 6425 03874 9990 +004 +999 129009 011 999 999 05
155630 3213N 08101W 6265 04049 9990 -003 +999 167006 008 999 999 05
155700 3214N 08059W 6117 04241 9990 -002 +999 167008 008 999 999 05
155730 3215N 08058W 5937 04455 9990 -010 +999 151008 009 999 999 05
155800 3216N 08056W 5744 04732 9990 -022 +999 144010 011 999 999 05
155830 3217N 08055W 5598 04949 9990 -031 +999 135011 011 999 999 05
155900 3218N 08053W 5466 05153 0233 -039 +999 127010 011 999 999 05
155930 3219N 08051W 5357 05301 0242 -047 +999 134011 013 999 999 05
160000 3221N 08050W 5264 05479 0256 -052 +999 159019 021 999 999 05

There it goes!

[HURAKAN]

[Dean4Storms]

Danny does the hokie pokie and he turns himself around, that's what it's all about!

[HURAKAN]

804
URNT15 KNHC 281610
AF302 0805A DANNY HDOB 03 20090828
160030 3222N 08048W 5185 05555 0255 -058 +999 165025 027 999 999 05
160100 3223N 08046W 5083 05703 0264 -067 +999 170026 027 999 999 05
160130 3224N 08045W 5002 05870 0280 -073 +999 172029 031 999 999 05
160200 3225N 08043W 4896 06004 0283 -083 +999 170030 030 999 999 05
160230 3227N 08041W 4815 06162 0289 -091 +999 178024 027 999 999 05
160300 3228N 08039W 4724 06273 0300 -099 +999 175024 026 999 999 05
160330 3229N 08038W 4642 06445 0325 -106 +999 176026 027 999 999 05
160400 3230N 08036W 4562 06548 0312 -115 +999 175028 030 999 999 05
160430 3232N 08034W 4496 06658 0319 -121 +999 178028 030 999 999 05
160500 3233N 08032W 4440 06753 0316 -126 +999 182030 031 999 999 05
160530 3234N 08030W 4368 06910 0338 -133 +999 180031 032 999 999 05
160600 3236N 08028W 4308 06973 0329 -140 +999 181032 033 999 999 05
160630 3237N 08026W 4231 07104 0340 -148 +999 177031 032 999 999 05
160700 3238N 08024W 4168 07235 0351 -156 +999 175034 035 999 999 05
160730 3240N 08023W 4123 07357 0365 -160 +999 179035 036 999 999 05
160800 3241N 08021W 4098 07376 0363 -165 +999 181036 037 999 999 05
160830 3242N 08018W 4093 07416 0373 -166 +999 181030 031 999 999 05
160900 3244N 08016W 4097 07363 0352 -165 +999 177029 031 999 999 05
160930 3246N 08014W 4097 07371 0352 -165 +999 178029 030 999 999 05
161000 3247N 08012W 4097 07398 0362 -165 +999 180028 029 999 999 05
$$
;

[Dean4Storms]

I think Danny is slowly spinning down. Looks like a TD to me. Little chance of intensification with the trough about to cream the cyclone.....Naked swirl warning....I like that......MGC

Yeah, if this is how it looks BEFORE the strong shear hits this evening, imagine what it'll look like tomorrow morning.

LOL! There is nothing for the shear to shear, how could it look any worse?

[massweathernet]

This is going to sound crazy and I'm not really serious but, what if the ULL over the Florida Panhandle/South AL moves northeast PAST Danny?! I only say this because it looks like Danny won't move for anything.

Most likely though, he'll get scooped up and then the northward motion will begin.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/east/anim ... astwv.html

AND

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

Anybody else seeing an exploding ring of convection firing right around the LLC?

[HURAKAN]

091
URNT15 KNHC 281620
AF302 0805A DANNY HDOB 04 20090828
161030 3249N 08009W 4101 07344 0362 -165 +999 177031 033 999 999 05
161100 3251N 08007W 4098 07381 0376 -165 +999 178033 034 999 999 05
161130 3252N 08004W 4099 07360 0357 -165 +999 178031 033 999 999 05
161200 3253N 08002W 4095 07372 0347 -165 -300 176031 032 999 999 03
161230 3253N 07959W 4100 07361 0349 -165 -300 178033 033 999 999 03
161300 3252N 07956W 4098 07388 0361 -168 -300 182033 034 999 999 03
161330 3251N 07953W 4099 07378 0363 -165 -300 186034 034 999 999 03
161400 3250N 07951W 4099 07359 0347 -165 -300 186033 033 999 999 03
161430 3250N 07948W 4099 07421 0365 -165 -300 182032 032 999 999 03
161500 3249N 07945W 4099 07361 0356 -165 -300 183031 031 999 999 03
161530 3248N 07942W 4098 07390 0381 -165 -300 183031 031 999 999 03
161600 3247N 07940W 4098 07390 0383 -166 -300 183031 032 999 999 03
161630 3247N 07937W 4100 07389 0383 -165 -300 189031 032 999 999 03
161700 3246N 07934W 4099 07398 0384 -165 -300 191032 033 999 999 03
161730 3245N 07932W 4098 07399 0385 -165 -300 190031 032 999 999 03
161800 3244N 07929W 4102 07386 0384 -160 -300 185029 034 999 999 03
161830 3244N 07926W 4111 07371 0388 -151 -300 186025 029 999 999 03
161900 3243N 07923W 4105 07404 0397 -155 -300 194030 032 999 999 03
161930 3241N 07922W 4095 07410 0394 -162 -300 191028 030 999 999 03
162000 3240N 07920W 4100 07406 0397 -166 -300 189025 026 999 999 03
$$
;

[wxman57]

Here is a new shot. No convection near center (that's just a ring of low clouds). Broad, weak circulation. Any 30kt+ winds are 150 miles east of that swirl.

[Air Force Met]

The giant ULL/Low is shearing this, right?

There are a couple of factors. 1) Shear in the mid and upper levels. Upper level shear isn't that bad...but there is some pretty decent undercutting shear. 2) Dry Air. Its really dry from about 700-400 mb over and west of the center. Hence all the arc clouds moving out from the system (towards the north...downdrafts).

If it was just shear...convection would be firing closer to the center and it would be pushed away. Convection is no where near the center...and that is because of the dry air.

[HURAKAN]

763
URNT15 KNHC 281630
AF302 0805A DANNY HDOB 05 20090828
162030 3238N 07918W 4094 07416 0395 -172 -300 195019 021 999 999 03
162100 3237N 07916W 4092 07416 0395 -165 -300 200028 030 999 999 03
162130 3237N 07913W 4098 07400 0390 -161 -300 200032 032 999 999 03
162200 3237N 07910W 4098 07406 0391 -160 -300 202032 033 999 999 03
162230 3236N 07907W 4098 07406 0392 -160 -300 202030 030 999 999 03
162300 3236N 07904W 4101 07401 0391 -160 -300 201028 029 999 999 03
162330 3236N 07901W 4098 07407 0393 -164 -300 202028 028 999 999 03
162400 3235N 07859W 4101 07401 0395 -161 -300 195028 029 999 999 03
162430 3235N 07856W 4098 07405 0394 -162 -300 198029 029 999 999 03
162500 3234N 07853W 4098 07407 0395 -163 -300 201030 030 999 999 03
162530 3234N 07850W 4098 07408 0394 -165 -300 197030 031 999 999 03
162600 3233N 07847W 4099 07403 0394 -162 -300 199031 031 999 999 03
162630 3232N 07844W 4099 07401 0393 -160 -300 202032 032 999 999 03
162700 3231N 07841W 4098 07408 0393 -160 -300 203031 031 999 999 03
162730 3230N 07839W 4099 07401 0393 -160 -300 205031 031 999 999 03
162800 3230N 07836W 4099 07395 0391 -159 -300 204030 031 999 999 03
162830 3229N 07833W 4098 07405 0393 -157 -300 195029 031 999 999 03
162900 3228N 07830W 4100 07402 0395 -156 -300 194025 026 999 999 03
162930 3227N 07828W 4102 07399 0396 -158 -300 203025 026 999 999 03
163000 3226N 07825W 4099 07404 0395 -159 -300 201027 028 999 999 03
$$
;

[Air Force Met]

Anybody else seeing an exploding ring of convection firing right around the LLC?

Looking at a 1625Z image and I see no convection (at least nothing deeper than would fall from a TCU) anywhere near the LLC.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=30&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=12&map=latlon

[HURAKAN]

991
URNT15 KNHC 281640
AF302 0805A DANNY HDOB 06 20090828
163030 3226N 07822W 4150 07311 0391 -158 -300 207028 028 999 999 03
163100 3225N 07819W 4311 07027 0376 -140 -300 219024 029 999 999 03
163130 3224N 07816W 4475 06750 0359 -121 -300 228016 018 999 999 03
163200 3223N 07814W 4633 06468 0340 -100 -300 216013 014 999 999 03
163230 3222N 07811W 4807 06197 0332 -083 -300 214015 016 999 999 03
163300 3221N 07809W 5056 05796 0307 -063 -300 213015 017 999 999 03
163330 3220N 07806W 5353 05344 0277 -042 -300 186013 015 999 999 03
163400 3220N 07803W 5670 04889 0123 -008 -300 195014 015 999 999 03
163430 3219N 07800W 6000 04449 0126 +020 -300 179009 010 999 999 03
163500 3218N 07758W 6344 03992 0136 +049 -300 152009 010 999 999 03
163530 3217N 07755W 6629 03624 0147 +064 -300 138010 012 999 999 03
163600 3216N 07752W 6981 03199 0144 +090 -300 116011 014 999 999 03
163630 3216N 07750W 7363 02743 0133 +117 -300 123013 014 999 999 03
163700 3214N 07748W 7629 02444 0140 +124 -300 107015 016 999 999 03
163730 3212N 07747W 7765 02325 0164 +126 -300 090014 016 999 999 03
163800 3211N 07746W 8009 02054 0171 +142 -300 099011 012 999 999 03
163830 3209N 07745W 8226 01825 0164 +160 -300 096011 013 999 999 03
163900 3208N 07744W 8454 01590 0161 +172 -300 091012 013 999 999 03
163930 3206N 07742W 8678 01363 0161 +178 -300 092011 012 999 999 03
164000 3205N 07741W 8906 01144 0162 +191 -300 101012 013 999 999 03

Plane descending

[HURAKAN]

104
URNT15 KNHC 281650
AF302 0805A DANNY HDOB 07 20090828
164030 3203N 07740W 9137 00903 0141 +205 -300 096015 016 999 999 03
164100 3202N 07739W 9375 00676 0130 +218 -300 091016 017 999 999 03
164130 3201N 07738W 9572 00480 0117 +228 -300 085016 017 999 999 03
164200 3200N 07737W 9596 00457 0114 +230 -300 087016 017 018 003 03
164230 3158N 07736W 9590 00461 0113 +229 -300 080014 014 016 004 00
164300 3157N 07735W 9595 00456 0111 +235 -300 078015 016 015 004 00
164330 3156N 07734W 9596 00456 0112 +233 -300 080016 016 020 004 00
164400 3154N 07733W 9590 00461 0111 +233 -300 078015 016 019 003 00
164430 3153N 07732W 9596 00456 0111 +231 -300 079015 015 019 003 00
164500 3152N 07732W 9592 00459 0112 +230 -300 075014 015 020 004 00
164530 3150N 07731W 9598 00452 0111 +230 -300 074014 014 021 004 00
164600 3149N 07730W 9594 00456 0111 +231 -300 074014 014 021 004 00
164630 3148N 07729W 9593 00457 0110 +233 -300 077013 014 022 004 00
164700 3146N 07728W 9594 00456 0110 +230 -300 074013 013 020 005 00
164730 3145N 07727W 9593 00456 0110 +230 -300 073013 013 020 004 00
164800 3144N 07726W 9594 00455 0110 +230 -300 069013 014 019 005 00
164830 3142N 07725W 9597 00453 0109 +231 -300 071014 014 018 004 00
164900 3141N 07724W 9593 00456 0109 +231 -300 072013 014 020 004 00
164930 3140N 07723W 9593 00457 0109 +231 -300 071014 014 021 003 00
165000 3139N 07722W 9593 00455 0109 +230 -300 070014 014 024 001 00

The link for Google Earth RECON isn't updating

[HURAKAN]

454
URNT15 KNHC 281700
AF302 0805A DANNY HDOB 08 20090828
165030 3137N 07721W 9593 00455 0109 +230 -300 068014 015 020 004 00
165100 3136N 07720W 9596 00453 0109 +230 -300 066014 014 022 003 00
165130 3135N 07719W 9594 00453 0108 +230 -300 068013 014 019 004 00
165200 3133N 07718W 9592 00455 0108 +230 -300 063014 014 019 004 00
165230 3132N 07718W 9594 00453 0108 +230 -300 067015 015 018 004 00
165300 3131N 07717W 9596 00451 0107 +231 -300 069015 015 020 004 00
165330 3129N 07716W 9592 00454 0106 +231 -300 068015 016 018 004 00
165400 3128N 07715W 9596 00450 0106 +230 -300 067016 017 017 005 00
165430 3127N 07714W 9593 00452 0106 +230 -300 063016 017 017 004 00
165500 3125N 07713W 9593 00452 0106 +230 -300 063016 017 017 004 00
165530 3124N 07712W 9594 00450 0105 +230 -300 061017 017 019 004 00
165600 3123N 07711W 9593 00452 0105 +230 -300 058016 016 020 003 00
165630 3121N 07710W 9596 00450 0105 +230 -300 055015 016 019 003 00
165700 3120N 07709W 9593 00453 0105 +230 -300 057017 017 018 004 00
165730 3119N 07708W 9590 00453 0104 +230 -300 049016 017 019 005 00
165800 3117N 07707W 9597 00447 0104 +230 -300 059015 016 019 004 00
165830 3116N 07705W 9593 00450 0103 +230 -300 067015 015 017 004 00
165900 3115N 07704W 9594 00450 0103 +232 -300 072014 015 017 005 00
165930 3114N 07703W 9593 00450 0102 +234 -267 073012 013 018 005 00
170000 3113N 07702W 9594 00448 0097 +232 +200 066013 014 016 005 00

[HURAKAN]

[wxman57]

The plane is 110 miles NW of the center and still no wind at or above 20 kts.

[HURAKAN]

767
URNT15 KNHC 281710
AF302 0805A DANNY HDOB 09 20090828
170030 3112N 07700W 9593 00450 0097 +231 +201 063013 014 018 004 00
170100 3111N 07659W 9594 00448 0096 +232 +202 061014 015 014 004 00
170130 3110N 07658W 9593 00449 0097 +230 +203 060016 016 013 005 00
170200 3109N 07657W 9593 00448 0096 +230 +204 059015 016 017 004 00
170230 3108N 07655W 9593 00448 0096 +230 +204 057015 016 017 004 00
170300 3107N 07654W 9597 00445 0095 +230 +204 061015 016 017 004 00
170330 3106N 07653W 9595 00445 0095 +235 +204 061015 015 017 004 00
170400 3105N 07651W 9594 00446 0094 +235 +204 062015 015 017 004 00
170430 3104N 07650W 9595 00445 0094 +234 +205 060015 015 017 004 00
170500 3102N 07649W 9595 00445 0094 +234 +206 058014 015 999 999 03
170530 3101N 07648W 9594 00446 0094 +233 +206 060015 016 999 999 03
170600 3100N 07646W 9593 00447 0093 +233 +207 059016 016 999 999 03
170630 3059N 07645W 9593 00446 0093 +231 +207 059017 017 999 999 03
170700 3058N 07644W 9600 00440 0094 +229 +208 052016 017 999 999 03
170730 3057N 07643W 9591 00447 0094 +225 +207 046016 017 999 999 03
170800 3056N 07642W 9590 00447 0093 +230 +206 051016 016 999 999 03
170830 3055N 07640W 9596 00443 0093 +230 +205 052016 017 020 004 03
170900 3054N 07639W 9590 00446 0092 +230 +205 052017 017 023 003 03
170930 3053N 07638W 9597 00441 0091 +230 +206 052016 017 024 003 00
171000 3052N 07636W 9595 00441 0090 +233 +207 053016 017 024 003 00

[dekeoy]

For those that know the weather better than I, are these not "rain bands" so to speak from Danny. It doesn't looks like it's coming from the other weather maker we are supposed to get later today. All of it off the ocean.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes