ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[KWT]

Well the ULL is weakening so shear profiles should be lowering, thats why the dynamic models are showing better uppers and also the SHIPS strengthen this.

This is sooo like Andrew, the MLC was strong enough to keep the NHC issuing advisories on it.

Note, even if it does get droped by the NHC, if it keeps its MLC going then it has every chance of developing still...

[eastcoastFL]

MLC's aren't affect much by mountains I don't think ana is going poof. She's the train that could. C'mon ana you can do it.

Good to see im not the only sicko that wants a storm.

[robbielyn]

I think nhc thinks ana will hang in there. Otherwise why keep ana officially ana when technically it's not? Yes it still could go poof, but it's not written in stone yet.

[ObsessedMiami]

This is sooo like Andrew, the MLC was strong enough to keep the NHC issuing advisories on it.

WOW. Ana went from being declared dead to compared with Andrew in one hour

[Brent]

Totally shocked they kept this alive. This is not a cyclone IMO.

[eastcoastFL]

Totally shocked they kept this alive. This is not a cyclone IMO.

She is a survivor.

[caneseddy]

They are going to send a recon plane this afternoon; like their advisory said, they are keeping it alive until the plane checks it out and then they probably will make the decision on whether to keep it or drop it

[Evil Jeremy]

This is not a TD at this point. This is an open wave. However, if this can make it into the waters above Hispaniola, I will be watching closely. Ana is defiantly a fighter, and with the warm waters and good environment above the Islands, Ana can make another return of some kind. As the NHC said, their intensity forecast was a split between possible dissipation and possible TS.

[Sanibel]

As long as Ana maintains a convected wave we won't know until it tracks north of the islands and shows us what is left of it.

[robbielyn]

"Glad I'm not the only sicko that wants a storm" Well eastcoastFL I'll fight ya for what side of the coast it will hit as I live on the west side. You'll probably win as tampa area is tucked away and storms have a hard time making that sharp right hand curve. I only want a little exciting wind nothing destructive.

[caneseddy]

This is sooo like Andrew, the MLC was strong enough to keep the NHC issuing advisories on it.

WOW. Ana went from being declared dead to compared with Andrew in one hour

Shhh.....don't mention that name around here

The difference between Andrew and this one is that Andrew had more open water to intensify and near perfect conditions for it to strengthen the way it did; this one does not have as much space to intensify; then again, I start to think about one of the models (HWRF or GFDL) this past weekend that had Ana as a Cat 2 heading towards the Upper Keys (I think Sanibel may have mentioned it)

[BensonTCwatcher]

They are going to send a recon plane this afternoon; like their advisory said, they are keeping it alive until the plane checks it out and then they probably will make the decision on whether to keep it or drop it

Yep, first spock in to do recon then bones to declare it...Wxman is ready I'm sure but Ana's been dead before

[KWT]

I meant Andrew in terms that one at one point the NHC couldn't find a LLC...they kept Andrew as a TS only because it had such powerful MLC present.

This is the same in some respects, in that if there is a LLC its very weak indeed and its mainly the MLC thats keeping this system as a TD for now.

[Sanibel]

It's quit that southern position for the Low center. I'd say it is on that spot at the SE edge of Puerto Rico.

[ronjon]

GFS wind shear forecast (along with ECM) look favorable north of the islands all the way to FL over the next 3-4 days.

http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

[caneseddy]

They are going to send a recon plane this afternoon; like their advisory said, they are keeping it alive until the plane checks it out and then they probably will make the decision on whether to keep it or drop it

Yep, first spock in to do recon then bones to declare it...Wxman is ready I'm sure but Ana's been dead before

I like that analogy, but like you said, Bones declared it dead and then it came back

[KWT]

The issue is Brent and others that a ship did report a west wind plus there is the new convection blowing up over the MLC present is whats making the NHC keep this as a system. Recon today is going to be the key factor as to whether they keep it or kill it...for the time being...

[Sanibel]

This thing is really on the move, unlike most of its previous history. It's taking its first hit on Puerto Rico right now. I imagine we'll be hanging onto the Puerto Rican long-range radar until it exits.

[Blown Away]

The difference is Sanibel when Claudette formed it had a strong upper high over it, sure that got dislodged later on but when it was forming shear was very low...this system has a filling upper low nearby it, conditions aren't nearly as good as they were this time 2 days ago...

However I think the models may well be missing something in the evolution and this does need watching of course.

Snippet from the NHC 11am discussion:
IF ANA SURVIVES ITS PATH OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND EMERGES TO THE
NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
MORE FAVORABLE UPPER WIND PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT THERE.

[storms NC]

Don't think she is dead yet. Think she is regrouping here.The out come will be more to the east. So I don't and didn't ever think it would go into the gulf. I think the trough have got her and if so out to sea or more Fla ec and up the EC