ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 281800
AF302 0805A DANNY HDOB 14 20090828
175030 2922N 07453W 9591 00444 0089 +237 +220 227019 021 023 005 00
175100 2921N 07452W 9597 00445 0094 +222 +219 230019 020 029 011 00
175130 2920N 07450W 9597 00447 0089 +235 +216 238018 019 017 004 00
175200 2919N 07449W 9599 00445 0096 +225 +213 240018 018 030 011 00
175230 2917N 07448W 9594 00442 0089 +234 +210 237018 018 018 005 00
175300 2916N 07446W 9593 00443 0089 +241 +207 234018 019 016 004 00
175330 2915N 07445W 9593 00444 0090 +238 +208 232018 018 016 004 00
175400 2914N 07444W 9596 00443 0091 +236 +210 232020 021 018 003 00
175430 2913N 07443W 9598 00441 0093 +228 +211 228021 022 027 007 00
175500 2912N 07441W 9591 00447 0091 +235 +212 226019 020 022 005 00
175530 2911N 07440W 9598 00440 0095 +223 +212 218021 023 040 015 03
175600 2910N 07439W 9590 00447 0097 +214 +209 213023 023 040 018 03
175630 2909N 07438W 9595 00445 0097 +226 +206 219024 025 027 006 00
175700 2907N 07437W 9580 00460 0096 +216 +203 215022 024 037 013 00
175730 2906N 07435W 9603 00446 0101 +224 +201 211026 028 029 011 00
175800 2905N 07434W 9597 00444 0094 +233 +199 216026 027 024 006 00
175830 2904N 07433W 9594 00448 0095 +232 +200 210023 024 024 004 00
175900 2903N 07432W 9589 00451 0096 +230 +201 211024 025 024 007 00
175930 2902N 07431W 9594 00448 0096 +235 +203 212022 023 019 005 00
180000 2901N 07429W 9593 00450 0097 +235 +205 214023 023 020 004 00
$$
;

[wxman57]

wxman....Bones warming up the pipes???

Bones says Danny isn't worth the effort. Recon just reported 26kt FL wind.

[artist]

I love this picture of Danny, makes him look like he is afraid to enter US soil - just bumping against it!

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 281810
AF302 0805A DANNY HDOB 15 20090828
180030 2900N 07428W 9593 00450 0097 +235 +207 214022 022 020 003 00
180100 2859N 07427W 9592 00452 0097 +236 +210 215021 022 018 004 00
180130 2858N 07426W 9594 00450 0098 +235 +212 216021 022 018 003 00
180200 2856N 07424W 9589 00456 0099 +234 +214 211021 022 021 006 00
180230 2855N 07423W 9596 00448 0099 +233 +215 214023 023 021 007 00
180300 2854N 07422W 9594 00451 0099 +235 +214 217022 023 016 005 00
180330 2853N 07421W 9594 00453 0100 +235 +214 220023 024 019 003 00
180400 2852N 07420W 9595 00452 0100 +237 +215 221024 024 019 003 00
180430 2851N 07418W 9593 00454 0101 +236 +216 220022 023 016 005 00
180500 2850N 07417W 9596 00453 0101 +239 +217 220023 024 014 004 00
180530 2849N 07416W 9594 00453 0102 +239 +218 217023 024 016 004 00
180600 2848N 07415W 9592 00457 0102 +237 +219 219023 023 015 004 00
180630 2846N 07414W 9593 00457 0103 +238 +219 219022 023 014 004 00
180700 2845N 07412W 9594 00455 0103 +237 +220 221021 022 017 004 00
180730 2844N 07411W 9590 00458 0103 +237 +220 223021 022 017 003 00
180800 2843N 07410W 9594 00456 0104 +237 +220 223022 023 019 003 00
180830 2843N 07410W 9594 00456 0105 +238 +220 224022 023 020 003 00
180900 2841N 07407W 9593 00458 0105 +235 +220 227022 024 019 003 00
180930 2840N 07406W 9594 00457 0105 +237 +220 228022 023 023 000 00
181000 2839N 07405W 9594 00457 0106 +237 +220 225022 022 024 000 00
$$
;

[funster]

Keep all eyes on Danny because it should start to make a big comeback soon. As it starts moving north the convection will be squeezed back into the center of Danny, and Danny will start getting more powerful. Danny will tighten, grow and increase in strength. Should be very interesting to watch.

[Air Force Met]

my question to you pro's - what happens if this just continues like he has and doesn't make a real move, what are the chances of conditions changing in a few days to being more conducive? Is there a chance he could rev up at that time?

(and no, I am not looking for this to come to Florida)

There's a major, deep trof approaching from the west very soon. If it stays where it is, it'll be blasted apart and absorbed by the trof/low/front.

What he said...

[tolakram]

Keep all eyes on Danny because it should start to make a big comeback soon. As it starts moving north the convection will be squeezed back into the center of Danny, and Danny will start getting more powerful. Danny will tighten, grow and increase in strength. Should be very interesting to watch.

I don't think you understand. North of Danny the shear increases even more, which will blow the convection even further off the the east. I don't think Danny has a chance.



LLC looking worse.

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 281820
AF302 0805A DANNY HDOB 16 20090828
181030 2837N 07404W 9592 00460 0107 +238 +219 223022 022 023 000 00
181100 2836N 07403W 9594 00459 0107 +239 +219 224021 022 023 000 00
181130 2835N 07401W 9591 00462 0108 +235 +219 224020 020 021 001 00
181200 2834N 07400W 9596 00457 0107 +238 +219 227022 022 022 001 00
181230 2833N 07359W 9596 00459 0109 +237 +219 226022 022 022 001 00
181300 2832N 07358W 9592 00462 0109 +235 +219 227022 022 022 001 00
181330 2831N 07356W 9594 00460 0110 +235 +218 225023 024 017 003 00
181400 2830N 07355W 9596 00461 0111 +235 +218 223022 023 018 003 00
181430 2829N 07354W 9593 00464 0112 +233 +218 221020 021 016 004 00
181500 2827N 07353W 9594 00462 0112 +234 +218 222020 021 020 004 00
181530 2826N 07352W 9597 00461 0113 +225 +217 216027 029 036 009 00
181600 2825N 07350W 9583 00471 0113 +221 +215 220025 027 029 014 00
181630 2824N 07349W 9597 00460 0112 +233 +211 225023 024 023 004 00
181700 2823N 07348W 9597 00460 0113 +230 +210 225027 029 024 003 00
181730 2822N 07347W 9596 00463 0113 +235 +210 223027 028 022 004 00
181800 2821N 07345W 9593 00464 0113 +238 +210 227026 026 023 003 00
181830 2820N 07344W 9594 00463 0113 +237 +211 227027 027 022 004 00
181900 2818N 07343W 9596 00463 0113 +236 +212 227027 027 020 004 00
181930 2817N 07342W 9593 00464 0113 +235 +214 229026 027 020 004 00
182000 2816N 07341W 9593 00463 0113 +234 +214 230027 027 022 003 00
$$
;

[Dave]

[jabber]

I hate naked swirls

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 281830
AF302 0805A DANNY HDOB 17 20090828
182030 2815N 07339W 9592 00464 0113 +231 +215 229028 029 022 003 00
182100 2814N 07338W 9596 00461 0113 +235 +214 231028 028 024 003 00
182130 2813N 07337W 9595 00462 0112 +236 +214 231027 028 023 003 00
182200 2812N 07336W 9593 00463 0113 +235 +214 230027 027 021 005 00
182230 2810N 07334W 9593 00464 0112 +236 +215 230026 027 024 003 00
182300 2809N 07333W 9597 00460 0112 +239 +214 228026 026 023 003 00
182330 2808N 07332W 9592 00466 0114 +238 +214 228028 030 020 004 00
182400 2807N 07331W 9594 00465 0116 +236 +215 225030 031 019 004 00
182430 2806N 07330W 9593 00468 0116 +237 +214 228029 030 019 003 00
182500 2805N 07328W 9593 00468 0118 +235 +215 226029 029 019 003 00
182530 2804N 07327W 9594 00469 0120 +229 +214 226028 029 021 003 00
182600 2803N 07326W 9597 00468 0122 +229 +214 225027 027 021 004 00
182630 2801N 07325W 9596 00470 0123 +230 +213 222024 025 022 004 00
182700 2800N 07324W 9591 00475 0123 +228 +212 228021 022 023 004 00
182730 2759N 07322W 9597 00469 0125 +218 +210 224023 025 029 014 00
182800 2758N 07321W 9594 00471 0126 +213 +207 216018 022 027 018 00
182830 2757N 07320W 9572 00494 0127 +216 +203 216022 028 020 007 03
182900 2757N 07318W 9598 00469 0126 +228 +202 219025 025 999 999 03
182930 2758N 07318W 9590 00475 0124 +233 +204 211024 024 019 006 03
183000 2800N 07318W 9599 00465 0124 +223 +207 196021 022 015 007 00
$$
;

[OuterBanker]

#*?! rain band. Just got soaked by a rogue rain band from Danny. Traced it and discovered it came from the ocean instead of the sw like the trough weather is coming. Lasted about two minutes, enough to get me and my car soaked.

Danny is not totally without victims.

[artist]

#*?! rain band. Just got soaked by a rogue rain band from Danny. Traced it and discovered it came from the ocean instead of the sw like the trough weather is coming. Lasted about two minutes, enough to get me and my car soaked.

Danny is not totally without victims.

so some of that bumping up against the coast line actually made it over! Good to know you are one of his first victims and it wasn't too painful!

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 281833 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052009
A. 28/17:31:40Z
B. 30 deg 04 min N
075 deg 42 min W
C. NA
D. 26 kt
E. 311 deg 63 nm
F. 047 deg 17 kt
G. 312 deg 26 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 23 C / 457 m
J. 25 C / 455 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0805A DANNY OB 05 CCA
MAX FL WIND 30 KT SE QUAD 18:24:40Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 30 KT SE QUAD 18:24:40Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL WNDS ASSOC WITH AREA OF ISOLD TS
;

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 281840
AF302 0805A DANNY HDOB 18 20090828
183030 2802N 07318W 9596 00469 0123 +224 +208 207019 020 016 005 00
183100 2803N 07318W 9594 00468 0121 +227 +207 215021 023 017 007 00
183130 2805N 07318W 9595 00465 0119 +227 +206 213025 026 023 008 00
183200 2807N 07318W 9594 00465 0118 +225 +205 214026 028 026 009 00
183230 2809N 07318W 9590 00469 0118 +225 +204 216028 029 027 009 00
183300 2811N 07318W 9596 00464 0117 +229 +202 216030 030 031 007 00
183330 2812N 07318W 9592 00467 0115 +234 +202 218031 031 030 007 00
183400 2814N 07318W 9596 00461 0113 +235 +202 216030 031 028 006 00
183430 2816N 07318W 9593 00463 0113 +231 +204 212029 030 028 004 00
183500 2818N 07318W 9593 00464 0113 +234 +206 214029 029 028 004 00
183530 2819N 07318W 9596 00462 0112 +238 +208 217029 030 026 004 00
183600 2821N 07318W 9596 00462 0112 +240 +209 212029 030 027 004 00
183630 2823N 07318W 9594 00463 0112 +236 +210 208030 031 028 003 00
183700 2825N 07318W 9593 00464 0114 +235 +211 205032 033 025 005 00
183730 2827N 07318W 9594 00462 0112 +235 +211 209036 037 029 003 00
183800 2828N 07318W 9594 00461 0112 +235 +211 211037 037 029 004 00
183830 2830N 07318W 9596 00459 0111 +231 +211 212037 037 029 004 00
183900 2832N 07318W 9595 00460 0111 +230 +211 208035 037 031 003 00
183930 2834N 07318W 9593 00462 0110 +234 +211 214032 032 033 000 00
184000 2836N 07318W 9590 00463 0109 +234 +212 215032 033 029 004 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

A couple of 37kts pretty far away from the center. (see recon thread)

[Dave]

[Sanibel]

The giant ULL/Low is shearing this, right?

There are a couple of factors. 1) Shear in the mid and upper levels. Upper level shear isn't that bad...but there is some pretty decent undercutting shear. 2) Dry Air. Its really dry from about 700-400 mb over and west of the center. Hence all the arc clouds moving out from the system (towards the north...downdrafts).

If it was just shear...convection would be firing closer to the center and it would be pushed away. Convection is no where near the center...and that is because of the dry air.

That's a good case of what I call "synoptic shear".

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 281850
AF302 0805A DANNY HDOB 19 20090828
184030 2837N 07318W 9595 00457 0107 +233 +212 213032 032 028 003 00
184100 2839N 07318W 9593 00456 0106 +230 +212 212033 033 030 003 00
184130 2841N 07318W 9592 00456 0104 +231 +212 211032 033 030 004 00
184200 2843N 07318W 9598 00450 0102 +235 +212 215031 032 031 003 00
184230 2845N 07318W 9594 00452 0100 +235 +213 214031 031 029 003 00
184300 2846N 07318W 9592 00454 0100 +239 +213 208031 031 028 004 00
184330 2848N 07318W 9594 00453 0101 +236 +214 208030 031 028 004 00
184400 2850N 07318W 9597 00451 0102 +235 +214 210029 029 027 004 00
184430 2852N 07318W 9596 00453 0103 +235 +215 208029 029 026 003 00
184500 2854N 07318W 9590 00457 0103 +235 +215 205030 031 026 003 00
184530 2855N 07318W 9596 00453 0105 +230 +215 202028 029 023 004 00
184600 2857N 07318W 9593 00458 0107 +228 +215 196027 028 024 003 00
184630 2859N 07318W 9591 00459 0106 +229 +214 196029 030 022 003 00
184700 2901N 07318W 9597 00452 0104 +230 +213 197031 031 026 004 00
184730 2903N 07317W 9591 00455 0102 +228 +213 198032 032 030 003 00
184800 2904N 07317W 9595 00452 0103 +227 +212 198033 034 030 002 00
184830 2906N 07317W 9594 00453 0102 +230 +212 197033 034 032 003 00
184900 2908N 07317W 9594 00453 0101 +232 +211 197032 032 030 003 00
184930 2910N 07317W 9592 00453 0099 +239 +211 198031 031 029 003 00
185000 2912N 07317W 9593 00453 0099 +235 +212 197031 032 030 004 00
$$
;

[storms NC]

Getting bands of rain now from Danny. Not much just a small shower.
But he is moving to the west _again__Oh okay like I said this morning he will move more to the west than they thought and come inland south to middle part of NC and ride thought NC and then out though Va coast. Sure it is a rain maker and not much else. Unless he does something when he hits the GS. Then only a high TS. So still a rain maker. But with storms like this is not we need to worry about. Tornados will be what to look out for. So even if it is a naked LLC.JMO