ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[CourierPR]

:uarrow: We should see the NNW veer in the Cancun radar soon. (Keeps it over warm water in the Channel)

I don't see a NNW movement.

[ronjon]

Is anyone in the keys getting nervous yet? Might we see tropical storm warnings for the lower keys tomorrow? The persistent north track might mean more than impacts to western Cuba. All of the models are showing a NW motion from this point onward - if Ida continues north....the models can't be all wrong? That would be a total bust. If it stayed on a more northward track there is less shear and warmer waters would prolong hurricane status.

[Sanibel]

Close enough that Guanahacabibes peninsula west tip of Cuba should get a nice little hurricane tonight.


I suspect reconnaissance will find at least 80mph sustained when it gets there.

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[Aric Dunn]

Hwrf.. 952 MB as it enters gulf.. lol
similar track to gfdl.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[jinftl]

Yep, a nnw track at this point would still mean the yucatan misses most of ida.....essentially a northwest...and soon a west-northwest track, as you mention, will be needed to bring Ida in line with the models.

This thing needs to starting jacking west-northwest if it's going to verify these model tracks. Most of them expect a very close approach to the Yucatan. Looks like this thing's heading for Cuba.

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL=Cat 3 Landfall at Panhandle

http://tc.met.psu.edu/

[Aric Dunn]

18z gfdl has no transition .. and landfall in panhandle but with a turn ese again..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

But remember 18Z runs use extrapolations.

yep

[Pearl River]

That satellite photo was taken at 1345 eastern time +5 utc = 1845z

On previous page...thats why it was hugging 84w

[Sanibel]

Our NOAA channel on cable TV issued a Hurricane watch for Pinar Del Rio Province Cuba earlier today.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: That satellite photo was taken at 1345 eastern time +5 utc = 1845z

On previous page...thats why it was hugging 84w

right.. but even now its still pretty much on 84 west..

[jconsor]

Cycloneye -

Keep in mind that the GFDL graphic you posted shows 35 meter winds!
The highest surface winds around the time of landfall are strong category 1/borderline category 2:
ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov//pub/data/nc ... tats.short

[Thunder44]

This image is only just about hour old:

[jinftl]

Looks like it hasn't gained any longitude since 4pm.....still at about 84.3W...at the most.

From the 4pm forecast, Ida should be nearing 85W in about 9 hours (84.8W forecast longitude at 4am sunday).

This image is only just hour old:

[Sanibel]

Ut oh, structure problems. Hold on on intensity increases.

[Macrocane]

If you can read spanish take a look at this: http://www.laprensa.com.ni/2009/11/07/nacionales/7177

It says that Ida left 13000 people affected in Nicaragua, 930 homes destroyed or without roof and 5591 hectares of crops damaged. Those are not definitive numbers they may rise on the upcoming days. Authorities are already helping with food and water to the affected people. There are no reports of dead people yet.

[ozonepete]

This image is only just about hour old:

Makes sense. 91H is higher up than 89H. One of the reasons we don't see an eye yet on the conventional satellites.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[robbielyn]

well aric if your scenario pans out, and it stays tropical hits mobile than the west coast of fl misses the majority of the storm if not all and we'll get some rain and gradient winds. I was hoping for et winds from the storm itself not just boring gradient winds as we have had many times.

[Aric Dunn]

On the other hand.. with that.. although completely representative of where the center is but close... but its nearly to 20N !!

which according to the nHC forecast should not occur till 6z

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.1N 84.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 40SW 100NW

[Derek Ortt]

on the FSU site, that same time has 89KT winds, Luis