ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[Stormsfury]

Looks like an open wave to me.....MGC

Likely to be ... a forward motion of 25 kts isn't conducive to maintaining a surface west wind in a weaker system. Most Likely a downgrade is coming, but I believe the future of Ana isn't quite completely dead either.

viewtopic.php?f=29&p=1907014#p1907014

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Looks like an open wave to me.....MGC

It does. But an Open wave will form fairly quick in the Gulf.

[Dean4Storms]

Yea, if that last wave could quickly form into a TC in the Gulf the remnants of Anna certainly could especially in a better UL environment and its forward speed slowed.

[tolakram]

According to the current forecast track Ana has about 1221 miles until landfall.

With a forward motion of 24kts, or 28mph, that's aprox 43 hours left till landfall on the western Florida coast.

Not a lot of time to organize.

[jlauderdal]

Looks like an open wave to me.....MGC

yep, the life expectancy of this thread is around 60 minutes max, close it and move it back to the main board, im tired of sifting through EPAC and CPAC and WPAC and Six Pac threads to find the ana thread which quite honeslty is the only thread that really matters right now unless you live in bermuda.

[ronjon]

According to the current forecast track Ana has about 1221 miles until landfall.

With a forward motion of 24kts, or 28mph, that's aprox 43 hours left till landfall on the western Florida coast.

Not a lot of time to organize.

NHC slows it down from day 2 to day 3 and places the depression in Florida Bay at 72 hrs.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 PM AST MON AUG 17 2009

...CIRCULATION OF ANA HAS DISSIPATED...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED BY THE APPROPRIATE GOVERNMENTS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT ANA NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION AND HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF ANA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST OR ABOUT
140 MILES...225 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND
ABOUT 145 MILES...230 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE REMNANTS OF ANA ARE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24
MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...TAKING THE SYSTEM OVER HISPANIOLA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...IN A FEW SQUALLS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.5N 68.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 24 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/CANGIALOSI

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
2100 UTC MON AUG 17 2009

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED BY THE APPROPRIATE GOVERNMENTS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 68.0W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 68.0W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 67.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 68.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/CANGIALOSI

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 PM AST MON AUG 17 2009

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED ANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND DID NOT FIND A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION. CONSEQUENTLY...ANA IS
NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON
THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

THE REMNANTS OF ANA ARE MOVING AT 290/21. THE REMNANT TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS PATH...BRINGING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO HISPANIOLA AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE BOTH SHIFTED SOUTH
FROM EARLIER...TAKING THE 850 MB VORTICITY CENTER OVER OR EVEN
SOUTH OF CUBA...LIMITING THE CHANCES OF REGENERATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 17.5N 68.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/FRANKLIN

[Brent]

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE BOTH SHIFTED SOUTH
FROM EARLIER...TAKING THE 850 MB VORTICITY CENTER OVER OR EVEN
SOUTH OF CUBA...LIMITING THE CHANCES OF REGENERATION.

[storms NC]

WOW that ULL took me by a surprize. I just looked and seen it has been pushed down North of Cuba. That opens a new path way for Ana if she reforms or regroups what ever.If the trough comeing off now get a hole of her she just may come back to life. Who knows.JMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[otowntiger]

What little convection she had earlier has waned even further. The NHC now says that regeneration is not likely due to the predicted movement over Hisp. and Cuba.

BYE BYE ANA!!! Its been real.

[storms NC]

What little convection she had earlier has waned even further. The NHC now says that regeneration is not likely due to the predicted movement over Hisp. and Cuba.

BYE BYE ANA!!! Its been real.

If the Ull stays where it is at now. North of Cuba. No way Ana would go into the ULL. But what do I know.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[JonathanBelles]

Interesting NAM, which handled Claudette very well. It takes Ana north, and brings it back to live off the coast of Miami.

[Sanibel]

I put Ana's weak center just on the SE tip of Hispaniola right now which would mean it is about the cross at the worst angle it could for survival.

Hey - great time to take the Floater off Ana. Just when you need to see if it is reforming.


If Claudette retained that much form over land maybe Ana will survive over Dominican.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Hey - great time to take the Floater off Ana. Just when you need to see if it is reforming.

Using other NOAA SSD imagery you can still see it fairly well on Puerto Rico satellite imagery:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr.html

[jlauderdal]

time to put a fork in this thread, florida gets spared again

[storms NC]

There is nothing there any more she is reoganizing to the north of DR.

Here is where I think. MHO

[CourierPR]

Is that ULL in the Straits moving out?

[cpdaman]

ana re-organizing and headed NW..........nope don't buy it.....so it's a simple disagreement ...thou it bears watchin

i guess should something try to develop there the SE shear and flow around the ull would be going basically in the same direction as x ana (from SE to NW'ish) so could be marginal enviornement shear wise and SST are toasty so ??

it should be noted thou that the low level flow is still mostly from E to W so x-ana would still move WNW more so than NW in the next day or so imo

[lonelymike]

Any of the pro mets got an opinion on Ana and what if anything it might do when it gets in the Gulf? Sorry to ask hearing different things tonite and want to be prepared just in case. Thanks

[ronjon]

Odds are probably against regeneration but you never know. There was a similar situation before....

This trough, located over the western Atlantic and the Bahamas, produced strong westerly shear across Tropical Depression Ten, causing it to degenerate on 14 August approximately 825 n mi east of Barbados. The low-level circulation gradually weakened while continuing westward, and it eventually dissipated on 21 August in the vicinity of Cuba. Meanwhile, a middle tropospheric circulation originating from Tropical Depression Ten lagged behind and passed north of the Leeward Islands on 18-19 August. A tropical wave, which departed the west coast of Africa on 11 August, moved through the Leeward Islands and merged with the middle tropospheric remnants of Tropical Depression Ten on 19 August and produced a large area of showers and thunderstorms north of Puerto Rico. This activity continued to move slowly northwestward, passing north of Hispaniola and then consolidating just east of the Turks and Caicos during the afternoon of 22 August. Dvorak satellite classifications from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) of the Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) began at 1800 UTC that day. The upper tropospheric trough weakened as it moved westward toward Florida, and the shear relaxed enough to allow the system to develop into a tropical depression by 1800 UTC 23 August over the southeastern Bahamas about 175 n mi southeast of Nassau.