ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Sanibel]

I think I've figured this one out.


What we are seeing is the mean-hearted Ida that RI'ed of Nicaragua doing its stuff but compromised by structure problems that showed themselves in that false eye people were seeing before and its eccentric vortex.

So we are seeing a mean storm that would have been getting strong again only it is dampered by synoptic inhibiting combined with core problems from land interaction.

[Normandy]

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?70

BTW i don't think it hits Cuba. The center is fairly obvious now on Cancun's radar and its starting to move more westerly. That being said obviously a scrape is even worse, as the NE eyewall goes over the parts of the island.

[ozonepete]

Thanks Aric and Hurakan for the microwave explanations and the links.

[Evil Jeremy]

So basically no rain in Miami, and more of the gusty wind.. That's a win in my book!

the rain is coming dont worry.. lol

Im not sure we will get much of anything on the SE Fl coast..

I think we will actually. Especially if Ida continues heading more east than expected. Look at how far east her confection bands are:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg

And there would be more if Cuba were not an inhibiting factor. As Ida heads north and starts getting sheared, and that convection close to Florida already, it could create a lot of rain for a majority of FL.

[AJC3]

The good news is that part of Cuba is mostly uninhabited. It's actually part of one of Fidel's favorite resting areas. He has a house there.

No mountains there right?

Mostly mangrove swamp. We overflew that area in 2000 on a recon flight into T.D. 12 (pre-T.S. Helene)

[MGC]

Strongest winds on the west side of a hurricane remind me of Hurricane Hilda in 1964 which also interacted with a strong cold front as the hurricane came ashore in Louisiana in October.......MGC

[ozonepete]

Hmmm... Looks like symmetry may be starting to degrade, even though convection is increasing. If the forward speed keeps increasing, as it looks likely, Ida may have reached its peak. I'm not sure at all, but it's really losing its symmetry in the last few images. I can also see the NNW movement now, finally.

[Crostorm]

07/2345 UTC 19.8N 84.6W T4.0/4.0 IDA -- Atlantic

[jinftl]

NHC forecast right now has a windfield forecast that is greatest on the northeast quadrant, followed by the northwest quadrant. Limited windfield on southwest side in comparison.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.8N 87.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 75SE 40SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.3N 88.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...175NE 90SE 45SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.5N 87.3W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 90SE 45SW 125NW.

What is significant about the GFDL is that:

1) The 18z run peaks 15 kt stronger than the 12z (97 kt vs 82 kt). The 12z run greatly underestimated Ida's strengthening this afternoon.

2) The 18z run is further north than the 12z (it reaches 30.5N latitude vs 29.7N) and now shows landfall on the FL Panhandle. This is likely due to the 18z GFDL's recognition of Ida's current northward acceleration, which the 12z GFDL missed.

3) The 12z and 18z GFDL are showing the strongest winds on the northwest (left) side of the storm, due to strong high pressure to the northwest of Ida enhancing the gradient. Normally, hurricanes have the strongest winds to the right of the track. The GFDL scenario would reduce the storm surge potential because the strongest winds are blowing from an offshore (northeast) direction

[Rainband]

hwrf shifted east a tad

[CrazyC83]

07/2345 UTC 19.8N 84.6W T4.0/4.0 IDA -- Atlantic

I'm seeing the following: 07/2345 UTC 19.8N 84.6W T3.5/3.5 IDA -- Atlantic

[Crostorm]

07/2345 UTC 19.8N 84.6W T4.0/4.0 IDA -- Atlantic

I'm seeing the following: 07/2345 UTC 19.8N 84.6W T3.5/3.5 IDA -- Atlantic

3 min ago was 4.0

[Aric Dunn]

Hmmm... Looks like symmetry may be starting to degrade, even though convection is increasing. If the forward speed keeps increasing, as it looks likely, Ida may have reached its peak. I'm not sure at all, but it's really losing its symmetry in the last few images. I can also see the NNW movement now, finally.

looks pretty round too me now..

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best track

Mantains at 60kts.

AL, 11, 2009110800, , BEST, 0, 196N, 844W, 60, 990, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[Dean4Storms]

Lord, I hope those wind speeds are overdone, we are currently in a higher than normal tide right now and with the long fetch and water piling up it could cause substantial coastal surge and flodding!

[AdamFirst]

They're waiting for recon to make any moves, I assume.

[IvanSurvivor]

Local met on TV says...extratropical right off shore of Panhandle. Increased surf, high winds, but will not maintain it's strength...not even tropical storm strength when it's near us? Almost no chance of a hurricane? Don't think they should over hype anything, but NO ONE other than us on this forum is paying attention. Those that do realize there is a system out there, say it's November...the water's too cold. Lots of people around here are not prepared and we are talking 60-72 hrs from now. Hope it turns out to be nothing, but you just never know.

[cycloneye]

They're waiting for recon to make any moves, I assume.

Plane departs at 9:45 PM EST so it wont arrive at Ida before the 10 PM EST advisory as it departs from Keesler base but yes for the 1 AM intermidiate so the waiting game will be until that time.

[Aric Dunn]

THis buoy is getting rocked..
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056
its getting pretty close to the eyewall probably in the next couple hours it will pass over or near it.. pressure 1009 at the bouy

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

THis buoy is getting rocked..
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056
its getting pretty close to the eyewall probably in the next couple hours it will pass over or near it.. pressure 1009 at the bouy

Just checked it and pressure is at 1002 not 1009