ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Recurve]

Anyone seeing west surface winds yet?

No. Won't likely see any today with the convection 125 miles east of the wave axis. Come back tomorrow, more likely Thursday.

Thanks Wxman. That's what I thought. I do see an exposed swirl but I assume that is not at the surface.

[canes04]

16.8N 55.8W

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone seeing west surface winds yet?

No. Won't likely see any today with the convection 125 miles east of the wave axis. Come back tomorrow, more likely Thursday.

Thanks Wxman. That's what I thought. I do see an exposed swirl but I assume that is not at the surface.

recon will find west winds.. there is clearly a surface circ..

we just dont have any surface obs to go off of..

[artist]

At 16:27:00Z (first observation), the observation was 45 miles (73 km) to the NNE (27°) from Basseterre, Saint Kitts and Nevis.
At 16:36:30Z (last observation), the observation was 58 miles (94 km) to the NNE (14°) from Saint John's, Antigua and Barbuda.

[Weatherboy1]

latest GFS plots coming in. Seems like the wave/low tracked by the model gets awfully close to FL on this run, doesn't it? Or am I not reading this right ...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

[cycloneye]

Martinique radar.Not much now but later we will see the circulation.

[storms NC]

I still say 16.5N and 55 West. We will see who is close.

[knotimpaired]

Martinique radar.Not much now but later we will see the circulation.

Luis, could you please post that link.

[cycloneye]

Link to Martinique radar.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[knotimpaired]

00z CMC way west of 12z run.Almost passes over my house in San Juan.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Here too.

[DESTRUCTION5]

latest GFS plots coming in. Seems like the wave/low tracked by the model gets awfully close to FL on this run, doesn't it? Or am I not reading this right ...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

Yea it makes Landfall in FL as a weak wave...Run for your lives...

[artist]

Atlantic USAF High-Density Observations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT15 KNHC 011646
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 04 20090901
163700 1756N 06136W 5726 04812 0098 +009 -067 188005 005 999 999 03
163730 1757N 06133W 5725 04819 0107 +005 -067 197005 006 999 999 03
163800 1757N 06131W 5729 04812 0117 -000 -066 207006 006 999 999 03
163830 1757N 06128W 5726 04815 0104 +007 -068 217005 006 999 999 03
163900 1757N 06126W 5730 04813 0113 +003 -068 209005 006 999 999 03
163930 1757N 06123W 5725 04817 0096 +010 -069 211002 003 999 999 03
164000 1757N 06121W 5728 04816 0097 +010 -070 194002 002 999 999 03
164030 1758N 06118W 5728 04816 0092 +014 -070 154003 003 999 999 03
164100 1758N 06116W 5726 04816 0097 +010 -071 135003 003 999 999 03
164130 1758N 06113W 5728 04814 0101 +010 -070 120003 004 999 999 03
164200 1758N 06111W 5726 04817 0107 +005 -070 110003 003 999 999 03
164230 1758N 06109W 5729 04813 0103 +008 -070 087004 004 999 999 03
164300 1758N 06106W 5728 04817 0107 +006 -070 094004 004 999 999 03
164330 1759N 06104W 5728 04813 0095 +010 -071 079004 004 999 999 03
164400 1759N 06101W 5728 04819 0093 +010 -071 075004 004 999 999 03
164430 1759N 06059W 5728 04815 0094 +011 -072 081004 005 999 999 03
164500 1759N 06056W 5728 04817 0099 +010 -072 102004 004 999 999 03
164530 1759N 06054W 5726 04817 0100 +010 -072 104003 003 999 999 03
164600 1759N 06052W 5728 04814 0092 +010 -072 073003 004 999 999 03
164630 1800N 06049W 5728 04815 0093 +010 -073 065004 004 999 999 03
$$

[Blown Away]

The TPC is forecasting 94L is going to significantly slow down the forward motion over the next 72 hours. TPC expects 94L to move about 7 degrees longitude over the next 72 hours?? Looking at the latest satellite I'm betting that prediction is to slow.

[Stormcenter]

That's exactly what it looks like....a weak wave.

latest GFS plots coming in. Seems like the wave/low tracked by the model gets awfully close to FL on this run, doesn't it? Or am I not reading this right ...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

Yea it makes Landfall in FL as a weak wave...Run for your lives...

[artist]

At 16:37:00Z (first observation), the observation was 59 miles (94 km) to the NNE (16°) from Saint John's, Antigua and Barbuda.
At 16:46:30Z (last observation), the observation was 91 miles (147 km) to the NE (48°) from Saint John's, Antigua and Barbuda.

[Aric Dunn]

I still say 16.5N and 55 West. We will see who is close.

i have it at 16.8N 57.2W

that is the visible surface circ..

[tolakram]

Shear looks rough, look at those cloud tops blowing around.

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

from: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

Maybe if we look close we'll see the plane!

[lrak]

Tx will take your weak wave

[poof121]

Upper divergence and lower convergence are definitely not aligned:

Upper divergence:



Lower convergence:

[artist]

Atlantic USAF High-Density Observations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT15 KNHC 011657
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 05 20090901
164700 1800N 06047W 5726 04814 0096 +010 -073 066004 004 999 999 03
164730 1800N 06044W 5728 04815 0100 +010 -073 069003 004 999 999 03
164800 1800N 06042W 5728 04815 0099 +010 -073 067003 004 999 999 03
164830 1800N 06039W 5726 04815 0091 +012 -073 070005 005 999 999 03
164900 1800N 06037W 5728 04812 0098 +010 -074 056004 004 999 999 03
164930 1801N 06035W 5726 04810 0097 +010 -074 050004 004 999 999 03
165000 1801N 06032W 5728 04817 0089 +011 -075 055004 004 999 999 03
165030 1801N 06030W 5728 04813 0092 +010 -075 050005 005 999 999 03
165100 1801N 06027W 5728 04815 0097 +010 -075 035004 005 999 999 03
165130 1801N 06025W 5726 04813 0091 +013 -076 034005 005 999 999 03
165200 1801N 06022W 5728 04814 0089 +015 -076 035005 005 999 999 03
165230 1802N 06020W 5728 04811 0088 +015 -077 032005 005 999 999 03
165300 1802N 06017W 5726 04814 0089 +015 -077 025006 006 999 999 03
165330 1802N 06015W 5728 04812 0088 +015 -077 024006 006 999 999 03
165400 1802N 06013W 5727 04810 0088 +015 -077 029006 006 999 999 03
165430 1802N 06010W 5726 04814 0088 +015 -077 028005 006 999 999 03
165500 1802N 06008W 5728 04814 0087 +015 -077 027005 005 999 999 03
165530 1802N 06005W 5728 04810 0087 +015 -078 028006 006 999 999 03
165600 1803N 06003W 5728 04812 0087 +015 -078 031006 006 999 999 03
165630 1803N 06000W 5726 04812 0085 +015 -078 027007 007 999 999 03
$$