ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[gatorcane]

anybody notice the 12Z develops other Cape Verde systems that all recurve in the Central Atlantic?

This season may just be over for any CONUS threats from a Cape Verde system......good news if that verifies.

[artist]

At 16:47:00Z (first observation), the observation was 93 miles (150 km) to the NE (49°) from Saint John's, Antigua and Barbuda.
At 16:56:30Z (last observation), the observation was 399 miles (642 km) to the E (94°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

[artist]

000
URNT11 KNHC 011701
97779 17004 30181 59700 45600 99005 02581 /8025
RMK AF305 01BBA INVEST OB 02
;

[Air Force Met]

I still say 16.5N and 55 West. We will see who is close.

Problem with either one of those positions is I see strong southerly inflow to the west of them both at 16/56

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Aric Dunn]

I still say 16.5N and 55 West. We will see who is close.

Problem with either one of those positions is I see strong southerly inflow to the west of them both at 16/56

I agree no circ withing the inflow..

thats why based on hi res visible .. i have it at 16.8N and 57.2W

1km loop.. omitt images 279 and 280
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[artist]

Atlantic USAF High-Density Observations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT15 KNHC 011706
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 06 20090901
165700 1803N 05958W 5728 04810 0085 +015 -078 020007 008 999 999 03
165730 1803N 05955W 5728 04810 0077 +015 -078 028007 007 999 999 03
165800 1803N 05953W 5726 04808 0082 +015 -078 027007 007 999 999 03
165830 1803N 05951W 5728 04807 0082 +015 -079 029007 007 999 999 03
165900 1804N 05948W 5726 04815 0081 +015 -079 029006 007 999 999 03
165930 1804N 05946W 5728 04808 0082 +015 -079 041007 008 999 999 03
170000 1804N 05943W 5727 04811 0086 +015 -079 045007 007 999 999 03
170030 1804N 05941W 5726 04815 0083 +015 -079 055007 008 999 999 03
170100 1804N 05938W 5728 04806 0085 +015 -079 057007 007 999 999 03
170130 1804N 05936W 5728 04812 0084 +015 -079 056007 007 999 999 03
170200 1804N 05934W 5728 04812 0082 +015 -080 050007 007 999 999 03
170230 1805N 05931W 5728 04805 0076 +015 -080 045006 006 999 999 03
170300 1805N 05929W 5728 04805 0074 +017 -081 032006 006 999 999 03
170330 1805N 05926W 5726 04811 0075 +019 -080 023005 005 999 999 03
170400 1805N 05924W 5728 04807 0073 +020 -080 023005 005 999 999 03
170430 1805N 05921W 5722 04816 0074 +019 -081 022005 005 999 999 03
170500 1805N 05919W 5730 04802 0073 +020 -081 024005 006 999 999 03
170530 1806N 05916W 5728 04804 0073 +020 -081 020006 007 999 999 03
170600 1806N 05914W 5726 04809 0071 +020 -081 021007 007 999 999 03
170630 1806N 05912W 5816 04683 0070 +027 -081 030009 010 999 999 03
$$

[otowntiger]

We (those of us here in the SE US) have nothing to worry about. If the storm strengthens it will re-curve. If it doesn't, it could head our way as just a weak tropical wave or td at most. That sounds like a win win to me. What are we all worried about?

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

We (those of us here in the SE US) have nothing to worry about. If the storm strengthens it will re-curve. If it doesn't, it could head our way as just a weak tropical wave or td at most. That sounds like a win win to me. What are we all worried about?

The islands...... Even an errant wave can kill on Hispaniola or PR.

[Dean4Storms]

I do not see a closed defined LLC in any of the Hi Res. Visibles. I see some naked loosely rotating swirls in several different areas to the east of the main convection, but no clear overtaking LLC and with the convection so far to the east those swirls will amount to nothing.

[artist]

At 16:57:00Z (first observation), the observation was 401 miles (645 km) to the E (94°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 17:06:30Z (last observation), the observation was 451 miles (726 km) to the E (93°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

[gatorcane]

The TPC is forecasting 94L is going to significantly slow down the forward motion over the next 72 hours. TPC expects 94L to move about 7 degrees longitude over the next 72 hours?? Looking at the latest satellite I'm betting that prediction is to slow.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Look how the wave axis is already pointing NW....the troughs that we are seeing this year are simply amazing, as Derek has pointed out. This has just about a 0% chance of hitting Florida if it develops into anything significant TS or hurricane. The only chance it reaches FL is if it stays as a weak tropical wave.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011716
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 07 20090901
170700 1806N 05909W 5961 04484 0079 +043 -080 040010 012 999 999 03
170730 1806N 05907W 6155 04250 0112 +052 -077 047009 010 999 999 03
170800 1806N 05904W 6360 03978 0113 +068 -073 051010 010 999 999 03
170830 1806N 05902W 6573 03705 0114 +083 -062 035012 013 999 999 03
170900 1807N 05859W 6783 03439 0112 +098 -048 040016 017 999 999 03
170930 1807N 05857W 7002 03176 0113 +112 -035 044019 020 999 999 03
171000 1807N 05855W 7236 02893 0107 +128 -023 048019 019 999 999 03
171030 1806N 05852W 7462 02631 0114 +135 -010 052019 019 999 999 03
171100 1805N 05851W 7662 02407 0121 +141 +003 059021 021 999 999 03
171130 1803N 05849W 7883 02175 0133 +153 +014 063024 025 999 999 03
171200 1802N 05847W 8128 01912 0133 +165 +025 061028 030 999 999 03
171230 1801N 05846W 8419 01610 0134 +174 +036 063028 030 999 999 03
171300 1759N 05844W 8715 01313 0139 +178 +050 060027 029 999 999 03
171330 1758N 05843W 9030 01022 0144 +194 +061 058028 029 999 999 03
171400 1757N 05841W 9346 00690 0117 +210 +072 058029 030 999 999 03
171430 1756N 05839W 9611 00434 0114 +226 +082 061031 031 999 999 03
171500 1754N 05838W 9715 00357 0120 +233 +091 064030 031 999 999 03
171530 1753N 05837W 9626 00435 0119 +224 +099 066030 031 999 999 03
171600 1752N 05835W 9647 00417 0118 +221 +105 063028 028 999 999 03
171630 1751N 05834W 9646 00415 0118 +221 +110 061027 028 999 999 03
$$

[Aric Dunn]

convection beginning to fire of south side of the LLC .. Low level clouds are thickening near the center.. expect a large burst near the center over the next few hours..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html center is near 16.8 N 57.2W

[artist]

At 17:07:00Z (first observation), the observation was 454 miles (731 km) to the E (93°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 17:16:30Z (last observation), the observation was 222 miles (358 km) to the ENE (77°) from Saint John's, Antigua and Barbuda.

[artist]

Dropsonde Observations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
UZNT13 KNHC 011720
XXAA 51177 99181 70597 04289 99013 27832 06521 00111 26830 06023
92796 21202 06528 85527 18011 06528 70178 11859 04019 88999 77999
31313 09608 81700
61616 AF305 01BBA INVEST OB 04
62626 SPL 1805N05970W 1706 MBL WND 06024 AEV 20801 DLM WND 06022
012573 WL150 06522 084 REL 1807N05967W 170037 SPG 1805N05971W 170
652 =
XXBB 51178 99181 70597 04289 00013 27832 11938 21802 22850 18011
33811 18057 44694 11458 55682 11479 66586 03885 77578 07291 88574
02874 99573 01459
21212 00013 06521 11010 06519 22003 06524 33913 07028 44904 07033
55878 07026 66850 06528 77698 04019 88651 05014 99629 03014 11613
04512 22602 02511 33586 06010 44573 06008
31313 09608 81700
61616 AF305 01BBA INVEST OB 04
62626 SPL 1805N05970W 1706 MBL WND 06024 AEV 20801 DLM WND 06022
012573 WL150 06522 084 REL 1807N05967W 170037 SPG 1805N05971W 170
652 =
;

[cycloneye]

12z CMC ends this run south of Cape Hatteras.Before,it tracks north of Puerto Rico,Hispanola and Bahamas.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[artist]

000
URNT11 KNHC 011719
97779 17154 30179 58608 04300 07030 23108 /0012
40630
RMK AF305 01BBA INVEST OB 03

[hurricanetrack]

Latest GFDL suggests a turn east of 70W. NOGAPS is close to the NC coast but seems to miss just to the east.

GFDL: 126 26.6 68.8 330./ 7.3

NOGAPS: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 0m&tau=180

[Aric Dunn]

they are descending...