ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Blown Away]

Recon will tell us what is really there in less than 5 hours.

I think the 5 hour wait is going to kill some of us though! lol Will be interesting to see what they find I sure can't wait. I have an idea You can call them up and order them to fly sooner! lol j/k

It's killin' me. It's killing my social life.

I'm married w/ 3 kids and this board along with stock discussion boards has become my social life!

[vacanechaser]

I'm married w/ 3 kids and this board along with stock discussion boards has become my social life!

Baaaaaaaaaaaaaad!!! lol..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Aric Dunn]

winds at the Buoy still going up ... 65mph

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[jinftl]

Accuweather has shifted their forecast track east...tampa, don't tune ida out quite yet. First forecast track that at least seems to capture where Ida is and where she is going in the short-term...i.e., much closer to cuba than cancun.

Will NHC track shift east as well at 10pm?

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Regarding these intense landfalls being predicted by the models, is there a way to tell if the landfall is predicted to be as a tropical system or an extratropical system? Will it mean much of a difference in terms of storm surge?

In order to have a landfalling system as a cat 3 like some of them are showing it would have to be tropical. I could be wrong but I believe to have sustained Hurricane force winds it would have to be tropical. Extratropical systems can not have sustained Hurricane force winds. They can have them in gusts but not sustained.

[HURAKAN]

If this is the end of the 2009 season, at least it ended with a BANG!!!

[Aric Dunn]

winds at the Buoy still going up ... 65mph

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

this may be the closest it gets to it.. about to pass to the buoys north but next hour maybe the highest winds..

[dixiebreeze]

Wouldn't surprise me if it gets shifted even more east as tiime goes by. I would be surprised if it loses much intensity when it gets into the gulf. The GOM has been virtually storm free this season and it's still pretty good fuel for a TS or 'Cane.

[ozonepete]

If this is the end of the 2009 season, at least it ended with a BANG!!!

Not kidding. Could be memorable for NE Florida.

[ozonepete]

Wouldn't surprise me if it gets shifted even more east as tiime goes by. I would be surprised if it loses much intensity when it gets into the gulf. The GOM has been virtually storm free this season and it's still pretty good fuel for a TS or 'Cane.

The faster it moves, the less energy it will lose.

[Aric Dunn]

She is about to go bazurk as the convection on the south side is beginning to rotate to the east side.. it has the makings of a hurricane.. hehe

[Ivanhater]

Lol LSU, I think that game took 5 years off my life. LSU is one heck of a team.

Now this is some agreement unfortunately

[jinftl]

If that does happen, folks on the peninsula, esp on the west coast may very well fall within the fetch of ts force winds forecast to extend 175 east and ne of the center.

Wouldn't surprise me if it gets shifted even more east as tiime goes by. I would be surprised if it loses much intensity when it gets into the gulf. The GOM has been virtually storm free this season and it's still pretty good fuel for a TS or 'Cane.

[Dan33Fl]

I was wondering where is the shortwave that may turn this notheast at the end?http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html

[cycloneye]

Nothing yet from the second mission that goes to Ida.It was supposed to depart at 0145Z.Maybe they will do like this morning,when they released the obs in bunches and catch up when it was at OB 13.

[dixiebreeze]

If that does happen, folks on the peninsula, esp on the west coast may very well fall within the fetch of ts force winds forecast to extend 175 east and ne of the center.

Wouldn't surprise me if it gets shifted even more east as tiime goes by. I would be surprised if it loses much intensity when it gets into the gulf. The GOM has been virtually storm free this season and it's still pretty good fuel for a TS or 'Cane.

I hope counties along the Big Bend (including us) are getting sandbags ready.

[AJC3]

Regarding these intense landfalls being predicted by the models, is there a way to tell if the landfall is predicted to be as a tropical system or an extratropical system? Will it mean much of a difference in terms of storm surge?

In order to have a landfalling system as a cat 3 like some of them are showing it would have to be tropical. I could be wrong but I believe to have sustained Hurricane force winds it would have to be tropical. Extratropical systems can not have sustained Hurricane force winds. They can have them in gusts but not sustained.

This is quite untrue. There is nothing that says an extratropical gale center cannot have sustained winds at or above 65 knots. Happens freuqently in the open ocean. The march 12-13, 1993 superstorm was a wintertime gale that produced some ungodly strong winds in the eastern GOMEX.

[Aric Dunn]

This was a couple hours ago.. from then its has only become better organized..

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah its looking like the eyewall is closed ... should be a hurricane and if the upper winds dont hinder it the eye may start to show some what on satellite soon..

radar very impressive.. new images...

[img][/img]

[jinftl]

Yep, there have been nor'easters with sustained hurricane force winds...the distinction between tropical and extratropical/nontropical has more to do with the inner thermodynamics of the system....warm core vs cold core. It is not a distinction based on windspeed or capacity for damage.

Regarding these intense landfalls being predicted by the models, is there a way to tell if the landfall is predicted to be as a tropical system or an extratropical system? Will it mean much of a difference in terms of storm surge?

In order to have a landfalling system as a cat 3 like some of them are showing it would have to be tropical. I could be wrong but I believe to have sustained Hurricane force winds it would have to be tropical. Extratropical systems can not have sustained Hurricane force winds. They can have them in gusts but not sustained.

This is quite untrue. There is nothing that says an extratropical gale center cannot have sustained winds at or above 65 knots. Happens freuqently in the open ocean. The march 12-13, 1993 superstorm was a wintertime gale that produced some ungodly strong winds in the eastern GOMEX.