ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[CourierPR]

We (those of us here in the SE US) have nothing to worry about. If the storm strengthens it will re-curve. If it doesn't, it could head our way as just a weak tropical wave or td at most. That sounds like a win win to me. What are we all worried about?

...and you earned your degree in meteorology from what university?

[otowntiger]

We (those of us here in the SE US) have nothing to worry about. If the storm strengthens it will re-curve. If it doesn't, it could head our way as just a weak tropical wave or td at most. That sounds like a win win to me. What are we all worried about?

Why do you think those are the only possibilities? If its a TS+ it re curves, if it is a TD- it does not effect us? I think your sounding the all clear to quickly.

Read the forecast fo 94L under Jeff Masters' blog. That's what I'm referring to. He pretty much says that if it developed it would slide between Bermuda and the EC and if it did NOT develop, it would take a more southerly route winding up near the Bahamas as a wave. That general scenario seems to be the logic being purported by the resident pro mets here too.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011747
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 10 20090901
173700 1706N 05741W 9643 00401 0096 +229 +157 042018 018 027 000 03
173730 1705N 05739W 9644 00400 0095 +230 +158 041018 018 026 000 00
173800 1704N 05738W 9645 00398 0094 +230 +158 039017 018 027 000 00
173830 1703N 05737W 9643 00400 0094 +230 +159 038017 017 026 000 03
173900 1702N 05735W 9645 00397 0093 +230 +160 037016 017 999 999 03
173930 1700N 05734W 9642 00399 0092 +230 +161 034016 016 999 999 03
174000 1659N 05732W 9646 00396 0091 +230 +162 031015 016 025 000 00
174030 1658N 05731W 9644 00396 0091 +230 +163 031015 015 023 000 03
174100 1657N 05730W 9644 00396 0091 +230 +164 031014 015 025 000 03
174130 1656N 05728W 9644 00397 0090 +230 +164 031013 014 024 000 03
174200 1655N 05727W 9642 00397 0090 +231 +165 025012 013 024 000 03
174230 1654N 05725W 9643 00396 0089 +231 +165 022010 012 024 000 03
174300 1653N 05724W 9645 00393 0088 +230 +166 018008 009 023 000 03
174330 1652N 05722W 9644 00394 0088 +232 +166 020007 008 023 000 03
174400 1651N 05720W 9644 00393 0087 +232 +167 022007 008 018 000 03
174430 1651N 05719W 9647 00390 0087 +235 +167 012005 006 020 000 03
174500 1650N 05717W 9646 00392 0086 +235 +168 359004 004 020 000 03
174530 1650N 05715W 9645 00392 0086 +235 +169 334003 004 019 000 03
174600 1649N 05713W 9643 00392 0084 +239 +170 278002 003 019 000 00
174630 1649N 05712W 9645 00390 0084 +240 +171 271003 003 018 000 00
$$
;

[artist]

At 17:37:00Z (first observation), the observation was 275 miles (443 km) to the E (90°) from Saint John's, Antigua and Barbuda.
At 17:46:30Z (last observation), the observation was 298 miles (479 km) to the ENE (69°) from Roseau, Dominica.

[Sanibel]

I don't think the 2009 environment is supporting development without a strong MJO present.

[CourierPR]

The TPC is forecasting 94L is going to significantly slow down the forward motion over the next 72 hours. TPC expects 94L to move about 7 degrees longitude over the next 72 hours?? Looking at the latest satellite I'm betting that prediction is to slow.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Look how the wave axis is already pointing NW....the troughs that we are seeing this year are simply amazing, as Derek has pointed out. This has just about a 0% chance of hitting Florida if it develops into anything significant TS or hurricane. The only chance it reaches FL is if it stays as a weak tropical wave.

The wave axis has been tilted for several days as it has moved steadily WNW.

[Aric Dunn]

my center was correct.. winds dropped pressure dopped and we have west winds..

174430 1651N 05719W 9647 00390 0087 +235 +167 012005 006 020 000 03
174500 1650N 05717W 9646 00392 0086 +235 +168 359004 004 020 000 03
174530 1650N 05715W 9645 00392 0086 +235 +169 334003 004 019 000 03
174600 1649N 05713W 9643 00392 0084 +239 +170 278002 003 019 000 00
174630 1649N 05712W 9645 00390 0084 +240 +171 271003 003 018 000 00

[Evil Jeremy]

We (those of us here in the SE US) have nothing to worry about. If the storm strengthens it will re-curve. If it doesn't, it could head our way as just a weak tropical wave or td at most. That sounds like a win win to me. What are we all worried about?

Why do you think those are the only possibilities? If its a TS+ it re curves, if it is a TD- it does not effect us? I think your sounding the all clear to quickly.

Read the forecast fo 94L under Jeff Masters' blog. That's what I'm referring to. He pretty much says that if it developed it would slide between Bermuda and the EC and if it did NOT develop, it would take a more southerly route winding up near the Bahamas as a wave. That general scenario seems to be the logic being purported by the resident pro mets here too.

Thank you for helping me understand how the difference from TD to TS makes the difference from islands to recurve. Its not like when a system strengthens a flip is switched and it changes tracks. Yes, if it is a wave it will crash the islands, if it is strong it will turn north but what if it is in between? And again, anything can happen in the tropics. Steering currents change, as well as shear, models, and people's opinions. Still way to early to sound an all clear.

[Aric Dunn]

we have west winds..

actually the way the winds and pressure fell a vortex message may come out. soon.

[otowntiger]

We (those of us here in the SE US) have nothing to worry about. If the storm strengthens it will re-curve. If it doesn't, it could head our way as just a weak tropical wave or td at most. That sounds like a win win to me. What are we all worried about?

...and you earned your degree in meteorology from what university?

Sorry, I should have referenced my source and put the disclaimer. Jeez. I had just read Jeff Masters' latest update.

[cycloneye]

West winds were found.

[Bocadude85]

We (those of us here in the SE US) have nothing to worry about. If the storm strengthens it will re-curve. If it doesn't, it could head our way as just a weak tropical wave or td at most. That sounds like a win win to me. What are we all worried about?

Why do you think those are the only possibilities? If its a TS+ it re curves, if it is a TD- it does not effect us? I think your sounding the all clear to quickly.

Read the forecast fo 94L under Jeff Masters' blog. That's what I'm referring to. He pretty much says that if it developed it would slide between Bermuda and the EC and if it did NOT develop, it would take a more southerly route winding up near the Bahamas as a wave. That general scenario seems to be the logic being purported by the resident pro mets here too.

Yea and Ike was supposed to turn out to sea. Perhaps you should just sit back and wait and see what happens and once the recurve is taking place then come on here and post the all clear.

[Evil Jeremy]

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 260
MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS COULD BE DEVELOPING A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM TO SEE IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
FORMED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR...MORE
LIKELY...A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE... GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THOSE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

[x-y-no]

Well, they're weak, but there's actually some north, then northwest, then west winds there ...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Weatherboy1]

yep. those of us who were calling this an LLC earlier appear to be right, based on right. Guess that validates the "even a broken clock..." theory.

[Stormcenter]

Could be only homebrew stuff from now on.

anybody notice the 12Z develops other Cape Verde systems that all recurve in the Central Atlantic?

This season may just be over for any CONUS threats from a Cape Verde system......good news if that verifies.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011756
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 11 20090901
174700 1649N 05710W 9645 00390 0082 +240 +172 232005 005 016 000 00
174730 1649N 05708W 9643 00391 0082 +240 +173 235006 006 018 000 03
174800 1649N 05706W 9653 00382 0082 +240 +174 234008 008 999 999 03
174830 1648N 05705W 9642 00392 0083 +239 +175 239010 011 018 000 00
174900 1647N 05703W 9645 00390 0083 +238 +176 235012 013 018 000 00
174930 1645N 05702W 9645 00391 0084 +235 +176 233015 015 016 000 00
175000 1644N 05701W 9645 00391 0085 +235 +177 233015 016 019 000 00
175030 1643N 05700W 9643 00393 0085 +235 +177 230016 016 020 000 00
175100 1642N 05658W 9645 00391 0085 +235 +177 232017 017 019 000 00
175130 1640N 05657W 9645 00392 0087 +232 +178 233018 019 021 000 00
175200 1639N 05656W 9645 00392 0087 +235 +177 233019 019 020 000 00
175230 1638N 05655W 9642 00395 0087 +231 +176 228021 023 021 000 00
175300 1637N 05653W 9652 00386 0087 +235 +175 225022 023 026 000 00
175330 1635N 05652W 9642 00396 0088 +232 +175 224022 023 025 002 00
175400 1634N 05651W 9645 00393 0089 +226 +174 221026 029 027 001 00
175430 1633N 05650W 9645 00393 0088 +228 +173 223030 031 031 000 00
175500 1632N 05648W 9645 00394 0089 +229 +171 221033 034 031 001 00
175530 1630N 05647W 9644 00395 0091 +217 +169 221034 035 030 001 00
175600 1629N 05646W 9642 00397 0090 +230 +166 223033 034 029 003 00
175630 1628N 05645W 9644 00396 0091 +230 +165 222031 032 027 001 00
$$
;

[artist]

At 17:47:00Z (first observation), the observation was 300 miles (482 km) to the ENE (69°) from Roseau, Dominica.
At 17:56:30Z (last observation), the observation was 302 miles (486 km) to the NE (39°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

[RL3AO]

Could be only homebrew stuff from now on.

anybody notice the 12Z develops other Cape Verde systems that all recurve in the Central Atlantic?

This season may just be over for any CONUS threats from a Cape Verde system......good news if that verifies.

Considering its September 1st, I'd say its a little early to say that.