ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[ozonepete]

I was wondering where is the shortwave that may turn this notheast at the end?http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html

It's just moving into the Pacific NW. We are totally reliant on the models' forecasts of how deep and far south it will go to decide how much influence it will have on Ida. The only clues we can watch for right now are how deep it is digging southward and how fast (watch the water vapor loops) and what the next forecast model runs tell us (they ran at 00Z - 7PM EST but the output doesn't start showing up until around 11PM EST tonight)

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Regarding these intense landfalls being predicted by the models, is there a way to tell if the landfall is predicted to be as a tropical system or an extratropical system? Will it mean much of a difference in terms of storm surge?

In order to have a landfalling system as a cat 3 like some of them are showing it would have to be tropical. I could be wrong but I believe to have sustained Hurricane force winds it would have to be tropical. Extratropical systems can not have sustained Hurricane force winds. They can have them in gusts but not sustained.

This is quite untrue. There is nothing that says an extratropical gale center cannot have sustained winds at or above 65 knots. Happens freuqently in the open ocean. The march 12-13, 1993 superstorm was a wintertime gale that produced some ungodly strong winds in the eastern GOMEX.

Ok like I said I could be wrong. All I know is what I was told but I guess I was told inaccurate information. So could a extratropical system have 115mph winds then?

[Ivanhater]

She has started her NW turn on Radar. She has nowhere else to go

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Yeah its looking like the eyewall is closed ... should be a hurricane and if the upper winds dont hinder it the eye may start to show some what on satellite soon..

radar very impressive.. new images...

[img][/img]

lol did you forget to add the image?

[Aric Dunn]

hehe.. latest image just came in ... could be the eye trying to pop out.. easy to see if you loop it everything is rotating around that little warm spot..

few more images will help.. exact coordinates of that circle are about 20.2N 85 W

[jinftl]

Wow....multiple models going with the 'loop'.....talk about a track that would throw alot of folks for 'a loop'. Such a track could cause gale force winds, beach erosion, and some coastal flooding literally from the south carolina coast to the central Gulf.

[Ivanhater]

00z Dynamical

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Yeah its looking like the eyewall is closed ... should be a hurricane and if the upper winds dont hinder it the eye may start to show some what on satellite soon..

radar very impressive.. new images...

[img][/img]

lol did you forget to add the image?

Also could you post a updated image of the radar from Cuba?

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah its looking like the eyewall is closed ... should be a hurricane and if the upper winds dont hinder it the eye may start to show some what on satellite soon..

radar very impressive.. new images...

[img][/img]

lol did you forget to add the image?

yeah its coming i forgot to save before i posted it so it does not crash their servers anymore than they already are.. lol

that will be from cuba

[Rainband]

She has started her NW turn on Radar. She has nowhere else to go

looks like LA from that graphic

[Aric Dunn]

in the mean time the cancun radar is starting to look really impressive as well.. last image..

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?70

[lonelymike]

TROPICAL STORM IDA...
DURING SAT EVE...IDA WAS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AND MOVING
NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
IDA WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS IT
TRAVERSES THE VERY WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS. HOWEVER...AS IT ENTERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY...IT WILL ENCOUNTER A LESS CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WATER TEMPS COOL AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE
HOSTILE. IDA IS THEN FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...AS IT ENTRAINS ABUNDANT MID LAYER DRY AIR FROM THE
WEST AND BECOMES STRETCHED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG A FRONT. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF AGREE IN THE APPROACHING H5 TROUGH (PROVIDING DYNAMICS)
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT (PROVIDING LIFT) WILL PICK UP THE MOISTURE
FROM IDA BEGINNING MONDAY AND STREAMING IT NORTHEAST ACROSS CWA
ESPECIALLY MON AFTN INTO TUES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW REMNANT
OF IDA NEARING THE FL PANHANDLE COASTS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

SO...LOCAL AREA WILL STILL RECEIVE AMPLE RAIN AND WINDS UP TO GALE
FORCE ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF. WE EXPECT AT
LEAST A FEW INCHES OF RAIN (STORM TOTAL FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY) ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA...MAINLY WEST OF THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER BUT WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAT COULD BE
DOUBLE OR TRIPLE THIS. ORIGINATING AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM...THERE IS
VIRTUALLY NO CAPES AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE BASED LIFTED
WITH A SHALLOW STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED NORTH OF A DEVELOPING
FRONT.SO SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY OVER LAND AND TSTMS CHANCES
LOW...AND WILL BE FORECAST ONLY FOR COASTAL COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.

Latest from Tally NWS. I can detect the panic

[Aric Dunn]

Ok so here is the latest.. its a little behind but really close i am working on the next one now

radar from cuba becoming more impressive.. the far side is still too far for the radar to see..

[tgenius]

I would imagine a stronger system would also point to less stray bands making it to the east coast of FL as well.

[artist]

I was wondering where is the shortwave that may turn this notheast at the end?http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html

Welcome Dan! I don't have the answer for you but I am sure one of our great people here will.
Hopefully they will see your question soon.
ooops - ozonepete answered it already.
Dan33Fl wrote:
I was wondering where is the shortwave that may turn this notheast at the end?http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html

ozonepete wrote:
It's just moving into the Pacific NW. We are totally reliant on the models' forecasts of how deep and far south it will go to decide how much influence it will have on Ida. The only clues we can watch for right now are how deep it is digging southward and how fast (watch the water vapor loops) and what the next forecast model runs tell us (they ran at 00Z - 7PM EST but the output doesn't start showing up until around 11PM EST tonight)

[tolakram]

I like to use JSL to see structure changes at night.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-jsl.html

Odd loop, lots of repulsing. Not sure the eye is in the middle of the mess or not. If I had to guess I think the mid level circ is still NE of the LLC so there's a lot of funky things going on.

[RNGR]

She has started her NW turn on Radar. She has nowhere else to go

looks like LA from that graphic

those steering currents will change as the trough digs in and the high pressure over the SE shifts to the atlantic.

[ozonepete]

I was wondering where is the shortwave that may turn this notheast at the end?http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html

Welcome Dan! I don't have the answer for you but I am sure one of our great people here will.
Hopefully they will see your question soon.

I answered it before.

[canetracker]

She has started her NW turn on Radar. She has nowhere else to go

looks like LA from that graphic

Yeah, but I don't think Ida is in that steering layer. This is the layer she is probably in for the time being anyway.