ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Evil Jeremy]

Its interesting that the GFS ensembles have been added to the SFWMD model map, appearing alongside the other models.

[Derek Ortt]

and also, the latest models seem to have backed way off on developing this system.

[gatorcane]

Yep, I agree, looks like 2009 is the year of the recurves for sure..... I don't see any pattern changes.

and a month from now activity could be significantly winding down.

Not really the place to discuss this but I actually suspect that there wil lbe a subtle pattern change, for a start the troughing down the east coast looks far weaker, esp on the ECM. The GFS isn't so drastic with this but it tends to be far too gung ho with upper trough features anyway, esp when the resolution goes down.

Anyway most of the convection is to the west so probably some sort of shear from the east on it at the moment, though its more likely that its still developing.

Don't forget that the ridging is usually stronger across the Atlantic in September than in August at least if we look at climatology. 2004 is also a good example. Big troughiness over the Eastern CONUS in August (helped steer Charley into Florida), then it got replaced by big-time Bermuda High ridging in September. That is an extreme case but many systems impacting the CONUS from the East, those Cape Verde systems, are September systems.

I know if we look at South Florida hurricane climatology for September the big Cape Verde systems were mostly September systems, especially way back in the early to mid 20th century when Cape Verde system readily impacted South Florida.

Still too early to say with this one, however, if you bet on a recurve you are statistically favored if you look back through the years at all Cape Verde systems that have formed. Obviously we need to look at the current synoptic setup and not climatology for a true meteorological diagnosis.

[Derek Ortt]

not sure why, the GFS might be the worst ensemble out there

ECMWF ensemble is by far and away the best. However, I believe it goes for a 6 digit asking price for real time

[gatorcane]

last I checked the ECMWF didn't really like the long-term prospects with this one, albeit a 12Z run yesterday showed quite a system in the Central Atlantic MDR heading due west along the 15N line with some solid H5 ridging across most of the Central Atlantic. That system has not shown up on any run since. This one is so far south, I'd have to say it could get pretty far west you would think.

[cycloneye]

The latest.Click symbol to see a good closeup.

[clfenwi]

GFS at 120h, with the storm on a wnw trajectory.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC GFDL

359
WHXX04 KWBC 280518
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 28

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.4 29.7 270./14.9
6 10.7 31.1 279./13.7
12 11.2 32.4 294./13.4
18 11.6 33.7 287./13.8
24 11.9 34.7 287./10.0
30 12.4 35.8 295./11.7
36 13.0 37.0 297./13.1
42 13.9 38.1 307./13.6
48 14.6 39.3 299./13.8
54 15.3 40.5 303./13.2
60 15.7 41.5 290./10.9
66 16.3 42.5 304./11.8
72 16.6 43.2 292./ 7.4
78 17.1 43.9 306./ 8.1
84 17.4 44.6 296./ 7.2
90 17.8 45.2 296./ 7.0
96 18.0 45.7 296./ 5.5
102 18.3 46.3 297./ 6.4
108 18.4 47.3 276./ 9.1
114 18.8 48.0 297./ 8.1
120 19.0 48.8 286./ 7.1
126 19.5 49.5 300./ 8.6

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 280549
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 445 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 450 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[floridasun78]

time will tell but i do see this becoming next system by saturday i donot see this as fish storm

[KWT]

Still getting sheared pretty badly, convecition look very lumped on the western side and if anything shear has got even worse over the last few hours. I wonder where any circulation even is right now, its convection is so far west its tough to tell exactly where it is, just you can see a broad circulation.

[littlevince]

0915z First visible:



0600z Shear analysis

[jlauderdal]

Boring up till now. Gaaaaaapp

that guy is upset about all these recurves

Jlauderdal you have a replacement for your avatar!!!!

im accepting replacments jpegs, pm me if you have something i should consider. We just spent the last 11 months looking at old guy paulson so im not sure i want to look at another old guy with his mouth open. bikini clad bimbos wont be considered either, this is a family board as was pointed out to me via PM.

[KWT]

Watch for a center to try and form under the convection, it looks pretty decent in that respect still even if shear is driving it westward for now.

[vegastar]

Latest Quickscat:




Still a little to the east of the main convection, with one center near 35W and other (dissipating old center?) near 32.5W.

[attallaman]

I see the word CONUS a lot in several posts, what does CONUS mean?

[vegastar]

I see the word CONUS a lot in several posts, what does CONUS mean?

CONtinental United States, I guess

[ronjon]

GFDL, CMC, and GFS are all on board with major development of 94L. Looks like we may have our next Cape Verde hurricane if these models are correct. All of the models really show a slow forward speed with 94L only reaching 50W in 5 days.

[cycloneye]

The 06z Surface Analysis from TAFB continues to have a surface low.

[littlevince]

Manual overlay of quikscat with IR at that time (0809z/0815z):