WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[metenthusiast]

Latest wind distrubition graphic from NWSO Guam

Thanks for that image, Jim! By the way, saw you at the documentary of GMA News. Very nice!

[HURAKAN]

26/0830 UTC 13.7N 149.9E T2.5/2.5 NONAME -- West Pacific

Dvorak - 35 knots

[ricmood]

Wow! TS23 is going straight to Metro Manila!!!

[HURAKAN]

Wow! TS23 is going straight to Metro Manila!!!

Too early to tell. Remember that Lupit was supposed to make landfall in Luzon

[dexterlabio]

probably it can shift some more to the north. or it might continue moving west or w/ a sw motion. reming of 2006 was also forecasted to track wnw towards ncr but it continued westward towards mindoro area.

i think the forecast on wednesday will be more accurate. let's see if 23W's current track is going well with the forecast.

[oaba09]

darn it....I can't sleep.......my carbuncle hurts.......I guess I still won't be going to work tomorrow...

[oaba09]

I can't find the eye of this thing...........

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[ricmood]

What forces/systems are there that makes it go westward and not northwest or north?

[oaba09]

What forces/systems are there that makes it go westward and not northwest or north?

I believe there's a HPA to the north...

[dexterlabio]

I wonder what it will look like tomorrow. hmmmm.

[dexterlabio]

newest satfix bulletin from jtwc

TPPN10 PGTW 261520

A. TROPICAL STORM 23W (E OF GUAM)

B. 26/1430Z

C. 12.9N

D. 147.5E

E. SIX/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/1132Z 12.7N 148.6E TRMM


UEHARA

it is moving westwards swiftly. seems like it really wanted to get into our halloween treat here in the philippines on time O_O i wonder if it is also intensifying quickly as it crosses the pacific ocean.

[Infdidoll]

In my oh-so-uninformed opinion, the track they are forecasting actually looks pretty good based on CURRENT conditions...but you know how that goes. Lupit's conditions kept changing pretty consistently. If things stay stable as they are, the track could prove correct. I wonder if this one might prove as predictable as Lupit was unpredictable? Again, however, only time will tell.





So will that trough to the NW combined with favorable water conditions likely keep this from moving poleward at all? To a novice, the JTWC prediction looks solid.

*The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.*

[oaba09]

In my oh-so-uninformed opinion, the track they are forecasting actually looks pretty good based on CURRENT conditions...but you know how that goes. Lupit's conditions kept changing pretty consistently. If things stay stable as they are, the track could prove correct. I wonder if this one might prove as predictable as Lupit was unpredictable? Again, however, only time will tell.





So will that trough to the NW combined with favorable water conditions likely keep this from moving poleward at all? To a novice, the JTWC prediction looks solid.

*The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.*

Seems like a solid forecast to me I don't see any conditions that can affect it's direction....Don't take my word though, I'm a total noob at this.......

[Macrocane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Dry air to its west could be the only factor that may inhibit strengthening in the short term, but if it grows enough to moisten its own way then we will see a gradual intensification.

[ozonepete]

I can't find the eye of this thing...........

That's because there isn't one. Normal sized tropical cyclones in this environment don't form an eye until around 77 knots or so.

[metenthusiast]

I can't find the eye of this thing...........

That's because there isn't one. Normal sized tropical cyclones in this environment don't form an eye until around 77 knots or so.

That is so. I guess we could see eye development in the coming hours. Based of the forecast, this one could be a real howler.

[metenthusiast]

Latest

[Derek Ortt]

well... they do form an eye. You just won't see it on conventional sat imagery until ~75KT

if this intensifies quickly, you may see the eye on the Guam NWS radar starting at ~50KT. I'm looking at the long range now and there is no eye yet (as we'd expect given a 35KT cyclone)

center looks north of Guam. Track may be near Saipan, however

[cycloneye]

WTPQ52 PGUM 261608
TCEPQ2

TROPICAL STORM 23W POSITION ESTIMATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 AM CHST TUE OCT 27 2009

AT 159 AM CHST...1559Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
23W WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 147.4 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 180 MILES EAST OF THE GUAM WSR-88D RADAR AT AN
ELEVATION OF 24000 FEET. THIS IS ALSO 163 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
ROTA AND 177 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

$$

ZIOBRO