ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Air Force Met]

yep. those of us who were calling this an LLC earlier appear to be right, based on right. Guess that validates the "even a broken clock..." theory.

Yep (on being right...not being abroken clock). - You could tell on satellite that there were west winds at the cloud level...but you really have no idea if that circulation (when its weak) reaches to the sfc or not until you get recon in there.

Derek...you putting up your shovel? lol.

[RL3AO]

Now that looks pretty well defined.

[StormClouds63]

Is there life beyond our universe? ...
How many licks does it take to get to the center of a Tootsie Roll pop? ...
Is 94L a hit or a miss? ...

Will we ever know?

[Weatherboy1]

Wondering also if shear is letting up a bit on the western side, too. Seems the higher-level clouds are "feathering out" a bit more to the west. In case anybody was wondering, that's my non-technical term. LOL

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

[vbhoutex]

As we all know the final decision will come from NHC based on the recon and it is looking like we may have Erika soon. However, my amateur perusal of the loops still says to me that we have a very broad circulation center with at least one vortex circulating within it. JMHO

[Derek Ortt]

yep. those of us who were calling this an LLC earlier appear to be right, based on right. Guess that validates the "even a broken clock..." theory.

Yep (on being right...not being abroken clock). - You could tell on satellite that there were west winds at the cloud level...but you really have no idea if that circulation (when its weak) reaches to the sfc or not until you get recon in there.

Derek...you putting up your shovel? lol.

Looks like Ortt just earned himself another 5K gasser run

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011806
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 12 20090901
175700 1627N 05643W 9647 00394 0091 +232 +165 220031 032 028 000 00
175730 1625N 05642W 9645 00396 0091 +233 +166 221032 032 030 000 00
175800 1624N 05641W 9645 00397 0092 +232 +167 219031 032 029 001 00
175830 1623N 05640W 9656 00385 0093 +221 +169 213030 032 032 004 00
175900 1622N 05639W 9641 00400 0093 +231 +168 213032 032 030 001 00
175930 1621N 05637W 9646 00397 0093 +232 +168 213034 035 032 000 00
180000 1619N 05636W 9645 00398 0094 +230 +169 211034 035 033 000 00
180030 1618N 05635W 9644 00399 0094 +227 +170 210033 034 031 001 03
180100 1617N 05634W 9645 00399 0095 +228 +171 209035 036 032 000 03
180130 1616N 05633W 9644 00400 0096 +221 +171 211037 038 033 001 00
180200 1615N 05631W 9646 00399 0095 +232 +170 210040 040 033 000 03
180230 1613N 05631W 9641 00404 0094 +234 +169 209037 039 999 999 03
180300 1613N 05632W 9642 00401 0094 +232 +170 207034 035 035 000 03
180330 1612N 05634W 9645 00398 0095 +229 +171 206033 033 034 000 00
180400 1612N 05635W 9645 00399 0094 +230 +172 204034 035 035 000 00
180430 1611N 05637W 9643 00400 0094 +233 +172 204034 035 035 000 00
180500 1611N 05638W 9643 00401 0096 +225 +172 205033 034 033 002 00
180530 1610N 05640W 9644 00399 0096 +223 +171 205032 033 033 002 00
180600 1610N 05641W 9647 00397 0096 +220 +168 205033 034 035 003 00
180630 1609N 05643W 9644 00401 0096 +225 +166 207033 033 034 000 00
$$
;

[artist]

At 17:57:00Z (first observation), the observation was 302 miles (486 km) to the NE (40°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
At 18:06:30Z (last observation), the observation was 287 miles (461 km) to the NE (42°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

[Evil Jeremy]

New UKMET out, looks like it stair-steps its way to the Northern Bahamas.

[Aric Dunn]

what link are you using to get this i have a old link that is slow..

[gtalum]

How many licks does it take to get to the center of a Tootsie Roll pop?

Three. I thought this was undisputed fact!

[otowntiger]

yep. those of us who were calling this an LLC earlier appear to be right, based on right. Guess that validates the "even a broken clock..." theory.

Yep (on being right...not being abroken clock). - You could tell on satellite that there were west winds at the cloud level...but you really have no idea if that circulation (when its weak) reaches to the sfc or not until you get recon in there.

Derek...you putting up your shovel? lol.

Looks like Ortt just earned himself another 5K gasser run

So I take it you think this will be upgraded to TD/TS? Something tells me this thing will just keep pulsing up and down based on all the questionable development factors around it and down the road and of course it's past history. What do you think?

[drezee]

180200 1615N 05631W 9646 00399 0095 +232 +170 210040 040 033 000 03
180230 1613N 05631W 9641 00404 0094 +234 +169 209037 039 999 999 03
180300 1613N 05632W 9642 00401 0094 +232 +170 207034 035 035 000 03
180330 1612N 05634W 9645 00398 0095 +229 +171 206033 033 034 000 00
180400 1612N 05635W 9645 00399 0094 +230 +172 204034 035 035 000 00
180430 1611N 05637W 9643 00400 0094 +233 +172 204034 035 035 000 00


40 kt flight level and 35 kt unflagged SFMR


enough for me to make the call...

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION :
16.8N 56.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.09.2009 16.8N 56.5W WEAK
00UTC 02.09.2009 17.5N 58.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2009 17.4N 60.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2009 18.1N 62.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2009 18.2N 64.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2009 19.3N 65.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2009 20.0N 67.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2009 20.6N 69.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2009 21.2N 69.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2009 22.6N 71.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2009 23.3N 72.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2009 24.0N 74.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2009 25.2N 75.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

[Blown Away]

Ukmet, more W on that run??

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Just a quickie.

[otowntiger]

New UKMET out, looks like it stair-steps its way to the Northern Bahamas.

but in what condition when it gets there?

[Weatherboy1]

Again, I'm still not too worried in FL. Most models ARE showing a recurve prior to reaching the state. BUT the trend appears to be shifting west gradually for many models (CMC, GFDL, UKMET, etc.) If that continues for another day or two, then it'd be time to be more concerned.

[RL3AO]

what link are you using to get this i have a old link that is slow..

Try this.

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ur/urnt15.knhc..txt