ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Aric Dunn]

I was wondering where is the shortwave that may turn this notheast at the end?http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html

Welcome Dan! I don't have the answer for you but I am sure one of our great people here will.
Hopefully they will see your question soon.
ooops - ozonepete answered it already.
Dan33Fl wrote:
I was wondering where is the shortwave that may turn this notheast at the end?http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html


It's just moving into the Pacific NW. We are totally reliant on the models' forecasts of how deep and far south it will go to decide how much influence it will have on Ida. The only clues we can watch for right now are how deep it is digging southward and how fast (watch the water vapor loops) and what the next forecast model runs tell us (they ran at 00Z - 7PM EST but the output doesn't start showing up until around 11PM EST tonight)

far left side and you can put the surface overlay on by clicking the fronts button its starting to kick out of the SW and rockies now..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

[Ivanhater]

Lol Canetracker, either way, she is about to hit a wall and will be turning more NW

[cycloneye]

Plane has just departed from Keesler base.

Anyone wants to post the google maps and to decode the obs?

000
URNT15 KNHC 080238
AF306 0311A IDA HDOB 01 20091108
023030 3024N 08856W 0208 00000 0197 +190 +097 360000 000 999 999 23
023100 3024N 08856W 0206 00000 0197 +190 +096 360000 000 999 999 23
023130 3024N 08856W 0207 00000 0197 +190 +096 360000 000 999 999 23
023200 3024N 08856W 0206 00000 0197 +190 +095 360000 000 999 999 23
023230 3024N 08856W 0203 00000 0195 +190 +095 082002 006 999 999 23
023300 3025N 08855W 0182 00011 0195 +189 +097 095008 013 999 999 03
023330 3026N 08855W 9990 00184 0206 +191 +101 115018 018 999 999 03
023400 3027N 08854W 9807 00342 0202 +186 +103 120019 020 999 999 03
023430 3028N 08852W 9467 00636 0187 +168 +103 121022 022 999 999 03
023500 3027N 08851W 9102 00994 0203 +158 +101 116017 019 999 999 03
023530 3025N 08852W 8864 01207 0205 +161 +097 121021 022 999 999 03
023600 3025N 08854W 8451 01610 0180 +146 +093 121017 019 999 999 03
023630 3024N 08856W 8103 01962 0176 +132 +089 113017 019 999 999 03
023700 3023N 08857W 7802 02281 0164 +126 +086 108020 021 999 999 03
023730 3022N 08859W 7543 02561 0146 +123 +084 114020 021 999 999 03
023800 3021N 08901W 7319 02812 0141 +111 +084 115020 020 999 999 03
023830 3020N 08902W 7124 03039 0139 +097 +086 104019 019 999 999 03
023900 3019N 08904W 6931 03268 0145 +079 +079 101019 020 999 999 03
023930 3018N 08906W 6743 03495 0151 +061 +061 098020 020 999 999 05
024000 3018N 08908W 6559 03725 9990 +044 +999 097021 021 999 999 05

[Aric Dunn]

Lol Canetracker, either way, she is about to hit a wall and will be turning more NW

no thats the thing.. that ridge is also moving but when you take anap shot like that it looks like a wall .. but its moving out so you have to look downstream.. so the flow on the SW and West of the ridge will be over the central gulf by tomorrow which will allow IDA to continue to move NNW to N..

[cycloneye]

The suspense builds as plane is in the air flying towards Ida.

[robbielyn]

Accuweather has shifted their forecast track east...tampa, don't tune ida out quite yet. First forecast track that at least seems to capture where Ida is and where she is going in the short-term...i.e., much closer to cuba than cancun.

Will NHC track shift east as well at 10pm?

If this track verifies and it remains tropical it will miss us totally. My son will get it though he lives in pc. We'll just get the gradient winds unless this goes extrop then the wind field will be expanded. I think however, this sol may very well pan out. Why? cause its nov and this is where storms always go straight north.

[jinftl]

A system that is sheared and undergoing the process of becoming extratropical will likely have an expanding area of winds (ts force at most). Add in the pressure gradient tightening even more, and it is going to be a blustery period all over florida. We already have Coastal Flood Warnings in coastal southeast florida in effect and Wind Advisories in the Keys.

Easy to see that Ida is already going to send her cloud canopy over the whole peninsula.....she has alot more on her eastern half than the western half of the storm.

I would imagine a stronger system would also point to less stray bands making it to the east coast of FL as well.

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 080246
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 PM EST SAT NOV 07 2009

...IDA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD STILL AS A TROPICAL STORM...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST OR ABOUT 150
MILES...245 KM...EAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 110 MILES...180 KM
...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42056 IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 60 MPH...97 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

...SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.1N 84.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN

WTNT41 KNHC 080246
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 PM EST SAT NOV 07 2009

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF IDA
SINCE THE AIR FORCE PLANE LEFT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST ALTHOUGH RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS
BEING IMPACTED BY SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD
AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND AN OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE OF 61
KT. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE IDA IN A FEW HOURS TO PROVIDE UPDATED INFORMATION.

IDA HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 340
DEGREES AT 10 KT AS IT IS STEERED BETWEEN AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER
MEXICO AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. TO HISPANIOLA. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH 48 HOURS ON A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AND
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THEREAFTER...ALL THE MODELS BRING IDA TO THE
COAST NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BUT
QUICKLY TURN IT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE ABSORBING COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF.

ALTHOUGH SOME SHEAR IS AFFECTING IDA...IT IS NOT PROHIBITIVELY
STRONG. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ARE PROVIDING
SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE IDA A 24-36
HOUR WINDOW TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AFTER 36 HOURS AND SHOULD LEAD TO SOME WEAKENING...BUT THE
NEW INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WEAKENING COULD BE
SLOWER TO OCCUR THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. IDA SHOULD BEGIN THE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS AROUND 48 HOURS AND BE FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IDA AND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS ALREADY PRODUCING STRONG WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BUT THESE WINDS ARE NOT
DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE CIRCULATION OF IDA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 20.1N 84.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 21.2N 85.3W 70 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 23.0N 86.5W 70 KT
36HR VT 09/1200Z 25.4N 87.6W 65 KT
48HR VT 10/0000Z 27.7N 87.9W 60 KT
72HR VT 11/0000Z 30.0N 86.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 12/0000Z 29.0N 85.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

...SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.1N 84.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

[tolakram]

Nighttime visible is quite impressive.



Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[Aric Dunn]

And so the back pedaling begins... hehe and still a storm cause they are waiting for recon .. which was expected..

ALTHOUGH SOME SHEAR IS AFFECTING IDA...IT IS NOT PROHIBITIVELY
STRONG. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ARE PROVIDING
SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE IDA A 24-36
HOUR WINDOW TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AFTER 36 HOURS AND SHOULD LEAD TO SOME WEAKENING...BUT THE
NEW INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WEAKENING COULD BE
SLOWER TO OCCUR THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. IDA SHOULD BEGIN THE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS AROUND 48 HOURS AND BE FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS

[ronjon]

But don't forget the Upper Air flow is a snap shot. The high is being slowly shunted to the east by the trough over Tx. In any case, N-NW movement is likely right into the death knell of shear. 18Z GFS shows 40-50 kts of shear over the central GOM in 48 hrs.

[ozonepete]

...SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.1N 84.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

Find it hard to agree with that. Dvorak ADT has been consistently under what RECON finds.

[canetracker]

Lol Canetracker, either way, she is about to hit a wall and will be turning more NW

Agree Ivanhater. Regardless of the layer its in, I still think you guys in the panhandle may get the worst of it. I hope the best for you all but don't wan't it here.

[wxman57]

She has started her NW turn on Radar. She has nowhere else to go

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... c/dlm5.GIF

looks like LA from that graphic

Perhaps, if the pattern across the U.S. was stationary. But it's not. The trof approaching west Texas will be over the mid Gulf coast in a few days, and the ridge over Florida will be well off to the east.

[tolakram]

Now a hurricane in the central Gulf.

[jinftl]

From 10pm NHC Discussion....they expect Ida to be extratropical before she approaches the panhandle, and then moves southeast and get absorbed ...

The track guidance is in excellent agreement
through 48 hours on a continued north-northwestward motion...and
the new official forecast is only slightly to the east of the
previous forecast. Thereafter...all the models bring Ida to the
coast near the Florida Panhandle as an extratropical cyclone but
quickly turn it to the southeast as the absorbing cold front
pushes southward over the Gulf.

The shear is expected to increase after 36 hours and should lead to some weakening
...but the new intensity guidance indicates that this weakening could be
slower to occur than previously forecast. Ida should begin the
extratropical transition process around 48 hours and be fully
extratropical by 72 hours.

A tight pressure gradient between Ida and high pressure located over
the southeastern United States is already producing strong winds
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico...but these winds are not
directly attributable to the circulation of Ida.

[Aric Dunn]

...SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.1N 84.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

Find it hard to agree with that. Dvorak ADT has been consistently under what RECON finds.

hehe the NHC will not upgrade with out recon in a situation like this... unless a eye is clearing out lol..

[wxman57]

A system that is sheared and undergoing the process of becoming extratropical will likely have an expanding area of winds (ts force at most). Add in the pressure gradient tightening even more, and it is going to be a blustery period all over florida. We already have Coastal Flood Warnings in coastal southeast florida in effect and Wind Advisories in the Keys.... snip

Exactly, don't focus on the center of this type of system at "landfall". The worst weather may be a 150-200 miles from the center. The center may be a swirl of low clouds with relatively lighter winds all around.

[cycloneye]

OB #2

URNT15 KNHC 080248
AF306 0311A IDA HDOB 02 20091108
024030 3017N 08910W 6387 03936 9990 +027 +999 097021 021 999 999 05
024100 3016N 08912W 6217 04157 9990 +008 +999 101022 022 999 999 05
024130 3015N 08914W 6063 04361 9990 -008 +999 100024 024 999 999 05
024200 3014N 08915W 5905 04553 9990 -025 +999 100024 024 999 999 05
024230 3013N 08917W 5760 04743 9990 -041 +999 098024 025 999 999 05
024300 3012N 08919W 5614 04963 9990 -056 +999 098023 024 999 999 05
024330 3011N 08921W 5479 05152 0260 -068 +999 097022 022 999 999 05
024400 3010N 08923W 5357 05329 0268 -076 +999 098021 021 999 999 05
024430 3009N 08925W 5243 05493 0264 -085 +999 104021 021 999 999 05
024500 3008N 08927W 5121 05677 0278 -093 +999 113020 020 999 999 05
024530 3007N 08929W 5022 05830 0290 -097 +999 115021 021 999 999 05
024600 3006N 08931W 4880 06055 0302 -110 +999 117020 021 999 999 05
024630 3005N 08933W 4778 06214 0309 -122 +999 126020 020 999 999 05
024700 3004N 08935W 4701 06340 0315 -129 +999 121019 019 999 999 05
024730 3003N 08937W 4628 06458 0320 -135 +999 117016 017 999 999 05
024800 3002N 08939W 4551 06577 0318 -137 +999 109011 013 999 999 05
024830 3001N 08941W 4484 06680 0314 -140 +999 108010 010 999 999 05
024900 3000N 08943W 4424 06777 0316 -149 +999 106010 010 999 999 05
024930 2959N 08945W 4358 06890 0320 -158 +999 113010 010 999 999 05
025000 2958N 08947W 4296 06998 0326 -167 +999 123011 011 999 999 05