ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[ozonepete]

YEs, Aric. Here it is clearly coming into view on the IR:

[Aric Dunn]

YEs, Aric. Here it is clearly coming into view on the IR:

the newest from nasa run the loop.. clear as day..

[tolakram]

My graphic was far superior.

The un-enhanced IR was pretty stunning. Like someone hit the on switch.

[cycloneye]

OB 6

URNT15 KNHC 080328
AF306 0311A IDA HDOB 06 20091108
032030 2810N 08910W 3443 08656 0427 -260 -288 217027 028 022 000 00
032100 2808N 08909W 3442 08655 0427 -260 -286 218025 025 022 000 00
032130 2806N 08908W 3443 08654 0428 -260 -285 217027 028 022 000 00
032200 2804N 08907W 3442 08655 0428 -260 -280 216027 028 023 000 00
032230 2802N 08906W 3442 08660 0430 -260 -280 217028 029 021 001 00
032300 2800N 08905W 3442 08663 0431 -260 -275 216029 030 020 000 03
032330 2758N 08904W 3442 08663 0431 -260 -273 215029 029 021 000 00
032400 2756N 08903W 3442 08662 0430 -260 -275 216028 028 018 002 00
032430 2754N 08902W 3443 08659 0432 -260 -271 217027 028 021 001 00
032500 2752N 08901W 3443 08658 0430 -260 -281 220027 027 024 000 00
032530 2750N 08900W 3442 08664 0431 -260 -278 222026 026 024 000 00
032600 2748N 08859W 3443 08665 0432 -260 -281 221025 025 023 000 00
032630 2746N 08858W 3442 08658 0432 -260 -280 223025 025 025 000 00
032700 2744N 08857W 3443 08662 0434 -260 -284 222022 024 025 000 00
032730 2742N 08856W 3442 08660 0432 -260 -278 224020 021 023 001 00
032800 2740N 08855W 3442 08665 0433 -258 -282 224021 022 023 001 00
032830 2738N 08854W 3443 08661 0432 -258 -283 218022 023 025 000 00
032900 2736N 08853W 3443 08664 0435 -260 -279 215024 024 026 000 03
032930 2735N 08852W 3442 08663 0433 -257 -287 216027 028 026 000 03
033000 2733N 08852W 3443 08666 0433 -260 -286 216026 027 024 002 00

[lostsole]

As I type this I am watching the swells get bigger and bigger on Pensacola Beach, I am right on the beach until tuesday, I am very curious about what Ida is going to do. I was offshore fishing and the water was pretty cool, not sure how a TS could survive. But hell who knows what mother nature has in store. remember both Ivan and Opal and neither fondly.

[ozonepete]

IF the eye clears out on IR satellite, climatologically alone we have 77 knots or 89mph...

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 03:28Z
Date: November 8, 2009
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 11
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 06
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
03:20:30 28.167N 89.167W 344.3 mb 8,656 m - From 217° (SW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) 22 kts 0 mm/hr
03:21:00 28.133N 89.150W 344.2 mb 8,655 m - From 218° (SW) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 22 kts 0 mm/hr
03:21:30 28.100N 89.133W 344.3 mb 8,654 m - From 217° (SW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) 22 kts 0 mm/hr
03:22:00 28.067N 89.117W 344.2 mb 8,655 m - From 216° (SW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) 23 kts 0 mm/hr
03:22:30 28.033N 89.100W 344.2 mb 8,660 m - From 217° (SW) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) 21 kts 1 mm/hr
03:23:00 28.000N 89.083W 344.2 mb 8,663 m - From 216° (SW) at 29 kts (33.3 mph) 30 kts (~ 34.5 mph) 20 kts* 0 mm/hr*
03:23:30 27.967N 89.067W 344.2 mb 8,663 m - From 215° (SW) at 29 kts (33.3 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) 21 kts 0 mm/hr
03:24:00 27.933N 89.050W 344.2 mb 8,662 m - From 216° (SW) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) 18 kts 2 mm/hr
03:24:30 27.900N 89.033W 344.3 mb 8,659 m - From 217° (SW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) 21 kts 1 mm/hr
03:25:00 27.867N 89.017W 344.3 mb 8,658 m - From 220° (SW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) 24 kts 0 mm/hr
03:25:30 27.833N 89.000W 344.2 mb 8,664 m - From 222° (SW) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 24 kts 0 mm/hr
03:26:00 27.800N 88.983W 344.3 mb 8,665 m - From 221° (SW) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 23 kts 0 mm/hr
03:26:30 27.767N 88.967W 344.2 mb 8,658 m - From 223° (SW) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 25 kts 0 mm/hr
03:27:00 27.733N 88.950W 344.3 mb 8,662 m - From 222° (SW) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 25 kts 0 mm/hr
03:27:30 27.700N 88.933W 344.2 mb 8,660 m - From 224° (SW) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 21 kts (~ 24.1 mph) 23 kts 1 mm/hr
03:28:00 27.667N 88.917W 344.2 mb 8,665 m - From 224° (SW) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) 23 kts 1 mm/hr
03:28:30 27.633N 88.900W 344.3 mb 8,661 m - From 218° (SW) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) 25 kts 0 mm/hr
03:29:00 27.600N 88.883W 344.3 mb 8,664 m - From 215° (SW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 26 kts* 0 mm/hr*
03:29:30 27.583N 88.867W 344.2 mb 8,663 m - From 216° (SW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) 26 kts* 0 mm/hr*
03:30:00 27.550N 88.867W 344.3 mb 8,666 m - From 216° (SW) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) 24 kts 2 mm/hr
At 03:20:30Z (first observation), the observation was 136 miles (219 km) to the SSE (157°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
At 03:30:00Z (last observation), the observation was 183 miles (294 km) to the SSE (157°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.

[tgenius]

Now I don't want to beat a dead horse, but I just checked my weather and POP is only at 20 percent all of next week, and its been updated lately, so I just don't see much in terms of rain for Miami.


By the way, GO GATORS!

[jinftl]

A Cat 3 in the next 24 hours or a Cat 3 when approaching the Florida panhandle? For my education,which models are saying this?

Clearly the NHC isn't factoring those models in their forecast, particularly beyond 36 hours...

Just so no one gets confused by the discussion here....the discussion is a general one....there is no forecast that is calling for Ida to have 115 mph winds...either as a hurricane or extratropical system...as she approaches the Gulf Coast and Florida. The current forecast calls for a 50 mph tropical storm transitioning into an equally squally extratropical low pressure late Tuesday. The biggest threats could be from coastal flooding and beach erosion in susceptible areas like the Florida Big Bend.

Its not a general discussion. Yes the official forecast doesn't have Ida getting to cat 3 but this isn't the thread for official forecasts. This is the model discussion which some of the models do show Ida getting to be a cat 3.

[Aric Dunn]

My graphic was far superior.

The un-enhanced IR was pretty stunning. Like someone hit the on switch.

right but all those images are behind by 45 minutes thats why i use the nasa site..

[MGC]

From looking at the Mexican and Cuban radars, I'd say Ida is going to shoot the gap and not make landfall in Mexico or Cuba. Looks like a well defined eye on radar. I'm assuming the system is nearly vertically stacked. Clear NNW movenment which should continue through the night. Ida should continue to slowly intensify through Sunday. Shear don't look to be a major issue, and SST are warm until Ida reaches the central GOM. Only real debate is when and if Ida becomes ET. I'd like it to stay purely tropical so the record for the most westward landfall in November is broken....MGC

[AdamFirst]

Looking at that unenhanced infrared it looks like it's heading due north again, but I don't know.

[HURAKAN]

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at that unenhanced infrared it looks like it's heading due north again, but I don't know.

actually if you run the long loop from cancun the last 4 frames or it made a pretty clear Northerly jog again..

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[MGC]

Also, Ida's forward speed has been increasing all day from 9mph to 12mph as of the 10pm advisory. Will Ida beat the trough to the coast?....MGC

[Evil Jeremy]

Not even a hurricane watch for Cuba. There needs to be a hurricane watch up for that area yesterday.

[cycloneye]

OB 7

000
URNT15 KNHC 080338
AF306 0311A IDA HDOB 07 20091108
033030 2731N 08851W 3442 08669 0433 -258 -277 216026 026 027 000 00
033100 2729N 08850W 3443 08660 0434 -258 -291 215026 026 025 001 00
033130 2727N 08849W 3443 08665 0433 -256 -287 212027 028 026 000 00
033200 2725N 08848W 3442 08667 0434 -259 -282 214027 028 026 001 00
033230 2723N 08847W 3443 08663 0434 -255 -280 207025 025 025 001 00
033300 2721N 08846W 3443 08648 0430 -255 -290 204024 024 026 001 00
033330 2719N 08845W 3443 08666 0435 -255 -284 207024 025 027 001 00
033400 2717N 08844W 3442 08669 0435 -255 -286 206023 024 027 001 00
033430 2715N 08843W 3443 08665 0435 -253 -290 204025 025 025 001 00
033500 2713N 08842W 3443 08664 0436 -254 -293 204024 024 026 001 00
033530 2711N 08841W 3442 08666 0437 -250 -298 203023 023 028 000 00
033600 2710N 08840W 3442 08670 0436 -250 -304 204023 024 026 001 00
033630 2708N 08840W 3442 08668 0437 -253 -297 207020 020 028 000 03
033700 2706N 08839W 3443 08662 0436 -251 -299 211021 022 028 000 03
033730 2704N 08838W 3439 08668 0436 -252 -295 213020 020 028 001 00
033800 2702N 08837W 3443 08661 0436 -250 -280 211024 025 029 002 00
033830 2700N 08836W 3437 08676 0439 -248 +999 202020 022 033 004 01
033900 2658N 08835W 3443 08669 0438 -245 +999 204019 019 034 007 01
033930 2656N 08834W 3442 08660 0435 -249 +999 210015 018 034 007 01
034000 2654N 08833W 3443 08665 0433 -250 +999 231010 012 034 007 01

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 03:38Z
Date: November 8, 2009
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 11
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 07
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
03:30:30 27.517N 88.850W 344.2 mb 8,669 m - From 216° (SW) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 27 kts 0 mm/hr
03:31:00 27.483N 88.833W 344.3 mb 8,660 m - From 215° (SW) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 25 kts 1 mm/hr
03:31:30 27.450N 88.817W 344.3 mb 8,665 m - From 212° (SSW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) 26 kts 0 mm/hr
03:32:00 27.417N 88.800W 344.2 mb 8,667 m - From 214° (SW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) 26 kts 1 mm/hr
03:32:30 27.383N 88.783W 344.3 mb 8,663 m - From 207° (SSW) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 25 kts 1 mm/hr
03:33:00 27.350N 88.767W 344.3 mb 8,648 m - From 204° (SSW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 26 kts 1 mm/hr
03:33:30 27.317N 88.750W 344.3 mb 8,666 m - From 207° (SSW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 27 kts 1 mm/hr
03:34:00 27.283N 88.733W 344.2 mb 8,669 m - From 206° (SSW) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 27 kts 1 mm/hr
03:34:30 27.250N 88.717W 344.3 mb 8,665 m - From 204° (SSW) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 25 kts 1 mm/hr
03:35:00 27.217N 88.700W 344.3 mb 8,664 m - From 204° (SSW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 26 kts 1 mm/hr
03:35:30 27.183N 88.683W 344.2 mb 8,666 m - From 203° (SSW) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) 28 kts 0 mm/hr
03:36:00 27.167N 88.667W 344.2 mb 8,670 m - From 204° (SSW) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 26 kts 1 mm/hr
03:36:30 27.133N 88.667W 344.2 mb 8,668 m - From 207° (SSW) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 20 kts (~ 23.0 mph) 28 kts* 0 mm/hr*
03:37:00 27.100N 88.650W 344.3 mb 8,662 m - From 211° (SSW) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) 28 kts* 0 mm/hr*
03:37:30 27.067N 88.633W 343.9 mb 8,668 m - From 213° (SSW/SW) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 20 kts (~ 23.0 mph) 28 kts 1 mm/hr
03:38:00 27.033N 88.617W 344.3 mb 8,661 m - From 211° (SSW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 29 kts 2 mm/hr
03:38:30 27.000N 88.600W 343.7 mb 8,676 m - From 202° (SSW) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) 33 kts 4 mm/hr
03:39:00 26.967N 88.583W 344.3 mb 8,669 m - From 204° (SSW) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) 34 kts 7 mm/hr
03:39:30 26.933N 88.567W 344.2 mb 8,660 m - From 210° (SSW) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) 34 kts 7 mm/hr
03:40:00 26.900N 88.550W 344.3 mb 8,665 m - From 231° (SW) at 10 kts (11.5 mph) 12 kts (~ 13.8 mph) 34 kts 7 mm/hr
At 03:30:30Z (first observation), the observation was 185 miles (298 km) to the SSE (157°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
At 03:40:00Z (last observation), the observation was 232 miles (373 km) to the SSE (157°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.

[deltadog03]

one note about the models

they have the storm moving unreasonably slow during the first 12 hours and have been well too slow for the last couple of days. They seem to have a south bias with this system

B I N G O!!!!!