ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Aric Dunn]

Ok this buoy the pressure is dropping like a rock its very near the SW eyewall probably close to the eye.. pressure with a sustained wind nearly hurricane fore.. 74mph lol
pressure 989mb that means the pressure in the eye itself is likely 985 to 987mb
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056


Highest 1-minute Wind Speed
Time (CST) 5-day plot - 1-Minute Wind Speed WSPD 5-day plot - 1-Minute Wind Direction WDIR
9:19 pm 64.1 kts NNW ( 330 deg true )

[cycloneye]

OB 10

URNT15 KNHC 080408
AF306 0311A IDA HDOB 10 20091108
040030 2531N 08754W 3441 08678 0447 -260 -284 228018 019 025 001 00
040100 2529N 08753W 3445 08675 0447 -255 -284 235016 016 025 001 00
040130 2527N 08752W 3441 08684 0446 -254 -303 233017 017 026 001 00
040200 2525N 08751W 3442 08684 0447 -250 -301 233018 018 027 000 00
040230 2523N 08750W 3443 08679 0449 -250 -311 237019 019 027 000 00
040300 2521N 08749W 3442 08682 0448 -250 -313 239019 019 025 002 00
040330 2519N 08748W 3445 08670 0448 -250 -308 234019 019 026 001 00
040400 2517N 08747W 3443 08675 0449 -248 -310 226021 022 027 001 00
040430 2515N 08746W 3443 08675 0448 -245 -310 224022 023 026 002 00
040500 2513N 08745W 3442 08684 0448 -247 -310 229021 021 025 002 00
040530 2511N 08744W 3443 08679 0449 -246 -313 228021 022 025 002 00
040600 2509N 08744W 3443 08680 0449 -246 -315 232018 019 025 001 00
040630 2507N 08743W 3445 08674 0450 -245 -316 227021 022 026 001 00
040700 2505N 08742W 3442 08682 0450 -245 -310 224021 022 026 002 00
040730 2503N 08741W 3443 08681 0451 -245 -307 230019 020 027 001 00
040800 2501N 08740W 3442 08680 0450 -245 -311 227019 020 027 002 00
040830 2459N 08739W 3442 08682 0452 -245 -314 227019 019 028 001 00
040900 2457N 08738W 3443 08680 0451 -245 -318 226018 018 027 002 00
040930 2455N 08737W 3441 08687 0452 -245 -313 231018 018 028 002 00
041000 2453N 08736W 3443 08675 0450 -245 -313 235017 017 026 002 00

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 04:08Z
Date: November 8, 2009
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 11
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 10
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
04:00:30 25.517N 87.900W 344.1 mb 8,678 m - From 228° (SW) at 18 kts (20.7 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) 25 kts 1 mm/hr
04:01:00 25.483N 87.883W 344.5 mb 8,675 m - From 235° (SW) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) 25 kts 1 mm/hr
04:01:30 25.450N 87.867W 344.1 mb 8,684 m - From 233° (SW) at 17 kts (19.5 mph) 17 kts (~ 19.5 mph) 26 kts 1 mm/hr
04:02:00 25.417N 87.850W 344.2 mb 8,684 m - From 233° (SW) at 18 kts (20.7 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) 27 kts 0 mm/hr
04:02:30 25.383N 87.833W 344.3 mb 8,679 m - From 237° (WSW) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) 27 kts 0 mm/hr
04:03:00 25.350N 87.817W 344.2 mb 8,682 m - From 239° (WSW) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) 25 kts 2 mm/hr
04:03:30 25.317N 87.800W 344.5 mb 8,670 m - From 234° (SW) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) 26 kts 1 mm/hr
04:04:00 25.283N 87.783W 344.3 mb 8,675 m - From 226° (SW) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) 27 kts 1 mm/hr
04:04:30 25.250N 87.767W 344.3 mb 8,675 m - From 224° (SW) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) 26 kts 2 mm/hr
04:05:00 25.217N 87.750W 344.2 mb 8,684 m - From 229° (SW) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 21 kts (~ 24.1 mph) 25 kts 2 mm/hr
04:05:30 25.183N 87.733W 344.3 mb 8,679 m - From 228° (SW) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) 25 kts 2 mm/hr
04:06:00 25.150N 87.733W 344.3 mb 8,680 m - From 232° (SW) at 18 kts (20.7 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) 25 kts 1 mm/hr
04:06:30 25.117N 87.717W 344.5 mb 8,674 m - From 227° (SW) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) 26 kts 1 mm/hr
04:07:00 25.083N 87.700W 344.2 mb 8,682 m - From 224° (SW) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) 26 kts 2 mm/hr
04:07:30 25.050N 87.683W 344.3 mb 8,681 m - From 230° (SW) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 20 kts (~ 23.0 mph) 27 kts 1 mm/hr
04:08:00 25.017N 87.667W 344.2 mb 8,680 m - From 227° (SW) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 20 kts (~ 23.0 mph) 27 kts 2 mm/hr
04:08:30 24.983N 87.650W 344.2 mb 8,682 m - From 227° (SW) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) 28 kts 1 mm/hr
04:09:00 24.950N 87.633W 344.3 mb 8,680 m - From 226° (SW) at 18 kts (20.7 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) 27 kts 2 mm/hr
04:09:30 24.917N 87.617W 344.1 mb 8,687 m - From 231° (SW) at 18 kts (20.7 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) 28 kts 2 mm/hr
04:10:00 24.883N 87.600W 344.3 mb 8,675 m - From 235° (SW) at 17 kts (19.5 mph) 17 kts (~ 19.5 mph) 26 kts 2 mm/hr
At 04:00:30Z (first observation), the observation was 335 miles (540 km) to the SSE (157°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
At 04:10:00Z (last observation), the observation was 366 miles (589 km) to the W (274°) from Key West, FL, USA.

[Rainband]

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[psyclone]

the GFDL has been showing cracked out intensities on this thing all along. Earlier it showed a cat 5 in the northwest caribbean (i think we're a bit shy) then it showed a cat 4 headed for Tampa (laughable) and most recently it has shown a cat 3 for pensacola which is equally absurd. i am reminded of a cautionary sign outside of a fortune teller: "for entertainment purposes only"

[Blown Away]

Aric, can you keep reposting the radar loop?

[Aric Dunn]

latest Cuban radar.. very impressive EYEWALL.. I may have to up my winds for recon to near 90mph..

[HurricaneBelle]

Ida's a Hurricane Again!

WTNT61 KNHC 080414
TCUAT1
HURRICANE IDA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1115 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

...IDA REACHES HURRICANE INTENSITY...

DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42056...LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO...
RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 74 MPH...119 KM/HR.
THIS INDICATES THAT IDA HAS ONCE AGAIN REACHED HURRICANE STATUS...
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 75 MPH...120 KM/HR.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING IDA AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN

[Aric Dunn]

Ida's a Hurricane Again!

WTNT61 KNHC 080414
TCUAT1
HURRICANE IDA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1115 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

...IDA REACHES HURRICANE INTENSITY...

DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42056...LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO...
RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 74 MPH...119 KM/HR.
THIS INDICATES THAT IDA HAS ONCE AGAIN REACHED HURRICANE STATUS...
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 75 MPH...120 KM/HR.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING IDA AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN

I was waiting for that .. once i saw the buoy at 74 mph..

[cpdaman]

aric the presentation of the eye does look to be deteriorating a tad on that cuban radar.....wouldn't you say? or perhaps it's not a long enough loop to get a true idea.

[Kingarabian]

000
WTNT61 KNHC 080414
TCUAT1
HURRICANE IDA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1115 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

...IDA REACHES HURRICANE INTENSITY...

DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42056...LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO...
RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 74 MPH...119 KM/HR.
THIS INDICATES THAT IDA HAS ONCE AGAIN REACHED HURRICANE STATUS...
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 75 MPH...120 KM/HR.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING IDA AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN

[Aric Dunn]

aric the presentation of the eye does look to be deteriorating on that cuban radar.....wouldn't you say?

well yeah its just started to form they are never perfect.. and those radars are not very good.. cuban radar looks good still and so does cancun radar..

also you have to remember that it cant see the far side of the storm .. out of range..

[cycloneye]

OB 11

URNT15 KNHC 080418
AF306 0311A IDA HDOB 11 20091108
041030 2451N 08735W 3443 08673 0449 -245 -319 227014 015 029 000 00
041100 2449N 08734W 3442 08684 0451 -245 -319 231016 016 029 001 00
041130 2447N 08733W 3443 08675 0451 -245 -322 230016 017 027 002 00
041200 2445N 08732W 3443 08681 0451 -245 -320 232016 016 027 002 00
041230 2443N 08732W 3442 08683 0452 -245 -316 232018 019 027 002 00
041300 2441N 08731W 3442 08686 0451 -245 -305 233019 020 027 002 00
041330 2439N 08730W 3443 08678 0451 -245 -298 227018 018 027 002 00
041400 2437N 08729W 3441 08691 0452 -247 -296 225020 021 027 002 00
041430 2435N 08728W 3443 08678 0453 -246 -283 219022 022 027 001 00
041500 2433N 08727W 3441 08689 0453 -246 -279 220024 026 025 002 00
041530 2431N 08726W 3442 08680 0452 -244 -278 220028 028 029 000 00
041600 2429N 08725W 3442 08682 0451 -240 -285 223027 028 028 002 00
041630 2427N 08724W 3443 08682 0449 -240 -295 227026 027 028 002 00
041700 2425N 08723W 3441 08681 0449 -240 -293 233025 026 030 002 00
041730 2423N 08722W 3443 08673 0447 -238 -294 237025 025 030 002 00
041800 2421N 08722W 3443 08680 0450 -249 -290 239018 019 030 002 03
041830 2419N 08722W 3443 08677 0448 -250 -250 245019 019 030 003 03
041900 2417N 08722W 3443 08676 0448 -243 -255 240017 018 030 003 00
041930 2415N 08723W 3442 08677 0448 -241 -253 231017 018 031 002 00
042000 2412N 08723W 3441 08684 0449 -236 -237 199018 021 032 002 01

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 04:18Z
Date: November 8, 2009
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 11
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 11
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
04:10:30 24.850N 87.583W 344.3 mb 8,673 m - From 227° (SW) at 14 kts (16.1 mph) 15 kts (~ 17.2 mph) 29 kts 0 mm/hr
04:11:00 24.817N 87.567W 344.2 mb 8,684 m - From 231° (SW) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) 29 kts 1 mm/hr
04:11:30 24.783N 87.550W 344.3 mb 8,675 m - From 230° (SW) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 17 kts (~ 19.5 mph) 27 kts 2 mm/hr
04:12:00 24.750N 87.533W 344.3 mb 8,681 m - From 232° (SW) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) 27 kts 2 mm/hr
04:12:30 24.717N 87.533W 344.2 mb 8,683 m - From 232° (SW) at 18 kts (20.7 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) 27 kts 2 mm/hr
04:13:00 24.683N 87.517W 344.2 mb 8,686 m - From 233° (SW) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 20 kts (~ 23.0 mph) 27 kts 2 mm/hr
04:13:30 24.650N 87.500W 344.3 mb 8,678 m - From 227° (SW) at 18 kts (20.7 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) 27 kts 2 mm/hr
04:14:00 24.617N 87.483W 344.1 mb 8,691 m - From 225° (SW) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 21 kts (~ 24.1 mph) 27 kts 2 mm/hr
04:14:30 24.583N 87.467W 344.3 mb 8,678 m - From 219° (SW) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) 27 kts 1 mm/hr
04:15:00 24.550N 87.450W 344.1 mb 8,689 m - From 220° (SW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 25 kts 2 mm/hr
04:15:30 24.517N 87.433W 344.2 mb 8,680 m - From 220° (SW) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) 29 kts 0 mm/hr
04:16:00 24.483N 87.417W 344.2 mb 8,682 m - From 223° (SW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) 28 kts 2 mm/hr
04:16:30 24.450N 87.400W 344.3 mb 8,682 m - From 227° (SW) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) 28 kts 2 mm/hr
04:17:00 24.417N 87.383W 344.1 mb 8,681 m - From 233° (SW) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 30 kts 2 mm/hr
04:17:30 24.383N 87.367W 344.3 mb 8,673 m - From 237° (WSW) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 30 kts 2 mm/hr
04:18:00 24.350N 87.367W 344.3 mb 8,680 m - From 239° (WSW) at 18 kts (20.7 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) 30 kts* 2 mm/hr*
04:18:30 24.317N 87.367W 344.3 mb 8,677 m - From 245° (WSW) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) 30 kts* 3 mm/hr*
04:19:00 24.283N 87.367W 344.3 mb 8,676 m - From 240° (WSW) at 17 kts (19.5 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) 30 kts 3 mm/hr
04:19:30 24.250N 87.383W 344.2 mb 8,677 m - From 231° (SW) at 17 kts (19.5 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) 31 kts 2 mm/hr
04:20:00 24.200N 87.383W 344.1 mb 8,684 m - From 199° (SSW) at 18 kts (20.7 mph) 21 kts (~ 24.1 mph) 32 kts 2 mm/hr
At 04:10:30Z (first observation), the observation was 365 miles (587 km) to the W (273°) from Key West, FL, USA.
At 04:20:00Z (last observation), the observation was 354 miles (569 km) to the W (266°) from Key West, FL, USA.

[ALhurricane]

Ida's evolution is going to be very intriguing to watch. I still cannot see this maintaining hurricane strength into the northern Gulf given the increased shear and cooler SSTs. Add in the fact that baroclinic processes are going to come in play, I still think extratropical transition will take place. The big forecast challenge will be winds along the coast and offshore. Even if this transitions to extratropical, it will almost certainly be at a lower pressure than guidance indicates. That will greatly enhance the pressure gradient force and produce gale to possibly storm force winds. The forecast challenge is for winds along the coast and exactly how the wind field transitions. Plus, the stronger this gets, the more coastal flooding issues there will be. Wave models were showing 17-18 ft waves as close as 60 NM to the coast with 10-13 ft just offshore on Monday.

[ozonepete]

Ida's a Hurricane Again!

WTNT61 KNHC 080414
TCUAT1
HURRICANE IDA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1115 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

...IDA REACHES HURRICANE INTENSITY...

DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42056...LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO...
RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 74 MPH...119 KM/HR.
THIS INDICATES THAT IDA HAS ONCE AGAIN REACHED HURRICANE STATUS...
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 75 MPH...120 KM/HR.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING IDA AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN

I was waiting for that .. once i saw the buoy at 74 mph..

Aric, my hat's off to you. You were 100% right and got it in here before they did. I'm impressed!

[cycloneye]

For those who may not find at the main discussion thread of Ida the statement from NHC of the upgrade to hurricane,here it is.

HURRICANE IDA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1115 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

...IDA REACHES HURRICANE INTENSITY...

DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42056...LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO...
RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 74 MPH...119 KM/HR.
THIS INDICATES THAT IDA HAS ONCE AGAIN REACHED HURRICANE STATUS...
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 75 MPH...120 KM/HR.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING IDA AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN

[ozonepete]

I'm going up to the corner hang-out with some friends. They say I need a sanity break. LOL. I'll be back for RECON. Can't wait.

[cycloneye]

OB 12

000
URNT15 KNHC 080428
AF306 0311A IDA HDOB 12 20091108
042030 2410N 08724W 3448 08671 0449 -229 +999 169019 020 034 005 01
042100 2408N 08724W 3443 08681 0449 -232 +999 139018 027 034 007 01
042130 2406N 08724W 3443 08679 0450 -235 -235 139031 031 036 008 05
042200 2404N 08725W 3443 08679 0449 -235 +999 144027 030 034 009 01
042230 2402N 08725W 3447 08670 0450 -236 -236 170017 023 035 009 01
042300 2400N 08726W 3442 08678 0449 -238 +999 173011 012 033 009 01
042330 2358N 08726W 3439 08687 0449 -237 -237 206010 011 032 010 00
042400 2356N 08727W 3443 08669 0448 -235 -242 238012 013 033 009 00
042430 2354N 08727W 3441 08686 0448 -235 -280 250013 013 030 005 00
042500 2352N 08728W 3441 08679 0450 -237 -284 252011 012 032 006 00
042530 2350N 08728W 3443 08677 0449 -240 -274 259010 011 030 007 00
042600 2348N 08728W 3441 08680 0450 -240 -291 258012 014 031 004 00
042630 2345N 08729W 3445 08680 0450 -239 -299 256014 014 030 003 00
042700 2343N 08729W 3443 08684 0451 -240 -293 250013 014 029 004 00
042730 2341N 08730W 3441 08685 0453 -240 -296 254013 014 027 002 00
042800 2339N 08730W 3445 08673 0451 -240 -294 248010 011 027 002 00
042830 2337N 08731W 3442 08684 0451 -243 -284 241009 010 029 003 00
042900 2335N 08731W 3442 08682 0451 -244 -285 216008 008 030 001 00
042930 2333N 08732W 3442 08677 0451 -240 -267 225011 013 030 002 00
043000 2330N 08732W 3443 08680 0451 -240 -285 235013 014 029 002 00

[ozonepete]

BTW, that is a pinpoint eye and that spells trouble. I don't see any really negative factors for the next 6-12 hours at the minimum.