ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Toadstool]

sounds like time for an intervention! I think EVERYONE needs to respect each others concerns.
Natural disasters are very stressful and approaching hurricanes can change course in the blink of an 'eye'(no pun intended). Science is not perfect! It's a gague to guess a scenario to keep
everyone safe based on the information. Models are NOT GODS and this is NOT a video game
where if you don't pay attention for a minute you loose POINTS. People could die. So can we support the concerns of everyone and maybe give more facts as to why thery need not worry rather than not validating their concerns.

Very true! I remember when all the models predicted Ernesto in 2006 to completely miss Florida, and Derek even said it was completely irresponsible for any to suggest a Florida peninsula hit because it may needlessly scare them (and make them apathetic)... and lo and behold a direct hit onto South Florida. So you never know!

[Derek Ortt]

18Z GFS is slightly left of the 12Z through 72 hours

[TheEuropean]

approaching the center

000
URNT15 KWBC 182148
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 11 20090818
213830 1546N 05301W 6818 03270 9958 +093 +093 304045 047 042 003 03
213900 1548N 05300W 6856 03222 9953 +098 +098 295048 050 043 002 03
213930 1550N 05259W 6917 03144 9947 +103 +103 299043 044 042 000 03
214000 1551N 05258W 6947 03103 9944 +104 +104 298041 042 042 000 00
214030 1553N 05257W 6963 03081 9940 +106 +106 299045 045 041 000 03
214100 1555N 05256W 6961 03079 9932 +108 +108 297045 046 044 000 03
214130 1557N 05255W 6965 03070 9922 +114 +103 294047 048 042 001 03
214200 1559N 05254W 6962 03070 9915 +116 +098 293048 049 044 000 03
214230 1601N 05253W 6961 03065 9908 +118 +100 293048 049 044 000 00
214300 1602N 05252W 6961 03060 9900 +120 +093 294049 050 045 000 03
214330 1604N 05250W 6962 03054 9893 +120 +104 293049 049 046 000 03
214400 1606N 05249W 6962 03048 9890 +116 +108 297049 050 045 000 03
214430 1608N 05248W 6960 03042 9884 +115 +105 293048 049 048 001 03
214500 1610N 05247W 6963 03031 9876 +114 +110 292048 050 051 002 03
214530 1612N 05246W 6954 03033 9865 +112 +112 288052 054 052 001 00
214600 1613N 05245W 6933 03048 9855 +112 +111 285055 056 055 002 03
214630 1615N 05244W 6940 03029 9836 +119 +108 284059 060 056 001 03
214700 1617N 05243W 6957 02997 9815 +125 +112 283061 063 999 999 03
214730 1619N 05242W 6979 02956 9792 +133 +111 281068 069 060 000 03
214800 1621N 05241W 6966 02956 9778 +131 +108 282067 069 065 000 03

[Nederlander]

At the very least, with the steering setup as it currently stands, I would think Bill will jog more westwardly after this current WNW path it is taking. Then time for the trough and a real recurve to begin in a day or so... Just my amateur opinion, do not put any stock into it, I just don't think the models are currently putting enough stock into the ridge riding to the NW of Bill right now.

once Bill really starts sniffing out the trough, he will gain some latitude quickly.. the models are pretty persistent on that trough picking Bill up and I see no reason why it wouldnt..

[wxman57]

Seems like I've missed some heated discussions today about a Caribbean threat (or not)? I haven't had time to check the board, but I can offer my observations. It does appear that Bill has been tracking just about as forecast, if not a little north of forecast. So there's no reason to assume that the forecast is a bust. The atmosphere has been behaving as forecast, so there's no reason to assume it won't over the next day or two as Bill makes its closest approach to the Caribbean.

I just got the 18Z GFS in and plotted steering currents (400-700mb mean flow) for today, tomorrow, and Thursday at 18Z. (see below). There is virtually no model divergence that would suggest any significant Caribbean impact. That said, we cannot say with 100% certainty that the NE Caribbean won't be directly hit. But from what I'm seeing with the model and forecast track performance, that risk appears minimal. If I lived in the Caribbean I'd feel good that Bill is behaving (following the forecast track) and the track isn't shifting left each advisory (as with Ana). But until the hurricane gets north of about 18N I wouldn't really feel safe (as no forecast is a 100% certainty). Good news is that Bill should be at a latitude north of the eastern Caribbean tomorrow.

Here are the steering flow maps:

[KWT]

How many people live in Halifax?

I remember when a powerful low pressure hit the UK and gave cat-2 strength gusts and it did a mess. Whilst I suppose this art of the world is more used to big windstorms anyway, a proper high end cat-1/2 is going to cause big damage I'd imagine...

Going to be very interesting to see how this progresses.

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KWBC 182158
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 12 20090818
214830 1623N 05240W 6946 02965 9757 +130 +120 279069 070 069 002 03
214900 1625N 05239W 6937 02952 9732 +127 +126 276073 076 072 004 00
214930 1627N 05238W 6953 02904 9682 +149 +127 273081 084 077 000 03
215000 1629N 05237W 6978 02849 9634 +171 +119 275078 081 077 000 03
215030 1631N 05236W 6967 02846 9613 +172 +120 282066 072 999 999 03
215100 1633N 05235W 6967 02832 9608 +166 +119 277044 050 041 001 03
215130 1635N 05235W 6951 02843 9589 +177 +095 273031 035 012 000 03
215200 1637N 05235W 6955 02829 9584 +173 +094 274022 022 007 000 03
215230 1639N 05235W 6960 02821 9591 +163 +100 267013 017 010 000 03
215300 1642N 05235W 6960 02818 9586 +165 +096 256007 008 009 000 00
215330 1644N 05235W 6956 02819 9582 +167 +096 113004 008 999 999 03
215400 1646N 05235W 7029 02732 9580 +178 +090 107010 011 007 000 03
215430 1647N 05234W 7274 02440 9592 +185 +102 136011 013 018 000 03
215500 1649N 05232W 7547 02125 9594 +204 +116 134016 016 008 000 03
215530 1650N 05230W 7796 01844 9600 +215 +134 135015 017 999 999 03
215600 1652N 05229W 7999 01619 9603 +219 +146 120021 023 999 999 03
215630 1653N 05227W 8173 01432 9615 +202 +186 133030 034 022 000 03
215700 1655N 05226W 8259 01344 9619 +203 +192 138038 041 999 999 03
215730 1657N 05226W 8303 01298 9619 +216 +189 128051 056 999 999 03
215800 1658N 05228W 8363 01234 9617 +215 +193 112059 060 054 000 03

958.0 mb

[KWT]

Yeah Derek but probably only by a matter of 10-20 miles, still it could make a bit of a difference down the line.

[CrazyC83]

How many people live in Halifax?

I remember when a powerful low pressure hit the UK and gave cat-2 strength gusts and it did a mess. Whilst I suppose this art of the world is more used to big windstorms anyway, a proper high end cat-1/2 is going to cause big damage I'd imagine...

Going to be very interesting to see how this progresses.

The metropolitan area has about 400,000. It is the largest city on the east coast north of Boston.

[cycloneye]

First pass from NOAA3 plane found pressure down to 958 mbs.

[KWT]

Ok thanks for that. So if does take the track some of the models are progging it looks like Bill could have a big impact on the city.

[Cookie]

How many people live in Halifax?

I remember when a powerful low pressure hit the UK and gave cat-2 strength gusts and it did a mess. Whilst I suppose this art of the world is more used to big windstorms anyway, a proper high end cat-1/2 is going to cause big damage I'd imagine...

Going to be very interesting to see how this progresses.

a powerfull uk low in 2005 brought cat 2/3 strength gusts to where I live on the isle of lewis



bill isn't that low yet

[Derek Ortt]

First pass from NOAA3 plane found pressure down to 958 mbs.

extrapolated. That is not much different than the 959 extra from the AF

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KWBC 182208
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 13 20090818
215830 1659N 05230W 8375 01219 9617 +210 +195 101059 060 055 000 03
215900 1658N 05233W 8375 01216 9616 +207 +198 089056 057 999 999 03
215930 1657N 05235W 8350 01243 9615 +207 +199 077052 054 999 999 03
220000 1656N 05237W 8355 01240 9615 +213 +195 069046 047 999 999 03
220030 1655N 05239W 8367 01234 9624 +208 +197 060042 042 999 999 03
220100 1653N 05241W 8403 01200 9628 +211 +198 051036 040 999 999 03
220130 1651N 05241W 8465 01135 9628 +211 +207 052027 029 999 999 03
220200 1650N 05239W 8469 01127 9624 +211 +206 062022 023 999 999 03
220230 1649N 05238W 8437 01156 9621 +208 +203 085015 017 999 999 03
220300 1648N 05236W 8401 01192 9619 +208 +205 104013 014 999 999 03
220330 1647N 05235W 8406 01189 9620 +206 +206 129012 013 999 999 03
220400 1646N 05233W 8437 01157 9622 +208 +196 146016 017 999 999 03
220430 1645N 05231W 8424 01170 9620 +211 +193 153018 019 999 999 03
220500 1644N 05230W 8434 01161 9620 +214 +192 152019 020 999 999 03
220530 1643N 05228W 8403 01194 9623 +211 +191 153022 024 999 999 03
220600 1642N 05227W 8409 01191 9626 +206 +200 158027 028 999 999 03
220630 1641N 05225W 8436 01161 9623 +214 +198 183031 036 999 999 03
220700 1641N 05223W 8441 01162 9631 +210 +200 187050 057 999 999 03
220730 1643N 05222W 8477 01134 9641 +213 +199 180060 063 999 999 03
220800 1645N 05221W 8463 01158 9649 +215 +196 177065 067 999 999 03

[Derek Ortt]

dont think this would be quite as bad as Juan. Juan made direct landfall into Halifax. This one is likely to strike near where Kyle did and then move over land and into Halifax. May knock a full cat off the storm

[wxman57]

dont think this would be quite as bad as Juan. Juan made direct landfall into Halifax. This one is likely to strike near where Kyle did and then move over land and into Halifax. May knock a full cat off the storm

It may be merging with a cold front by the time it gets that far north, too.

[TheEuropean]

flying around in and near the center

000
URNT15 KWBC 182218
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 14 20090818
220830 1647N 05220W 8468 01155 9654 +208 +203 166064 066 999 999 03
220900 1650N 05221W 8439 01181 9651 +208 +204 160056 058 999 999 03
220930 1652N 05221W 8450 01168 9648 +209 +204 160057 059 046 002 03
221000 1655N 05221W 8458 01155 9645 +207 +206 156069 074 054 001 03
221030 1657N 05222W 8471 01139 9640 +209 +209 144077 079 999 999 03
221100 1659N 05224W 8467 01137 9632 +211 +211 133071 074 999 999 03
221130 1659N 05227W 8441 01160 9629 +209 +209 119059 064 055 002 00
221200 1659N 05229W 8412 01190 9627 +212 +202 108046 050 049 000 03
221230 1659N 05231W 8421 01185 9633 +207 +204 106046 047 999 999 03
221300 1659N 05234W 8396 01212 9634 +204 +204 103048 050 042 000 03
221330 1659N 05236W 8393 01213 9631 +205 +205 102047 048 999 999 03
221400 1658N 05238W 8433 01162 9623 +207 +204 105043 046 039 001 03
221430 1657N 05240W 8433 01153 9613 +208 +202 108035 039 027 000 03
221500 1655N 05241W 8466 01114 9607 +207 +206 097028 029 999 999 03
221530 1654N 05243W 8441 01136 9603 +213 +201 080025 026 999 999 03
221600 1652N 05244W 8431 01150 9600 +223 +196 062021 023 999 999 03
221630 1650N 05244W 8404 01178 9602 +221 +195 063013 014 006 000 03
221700 1648N 05244W 8439 01145 9606 +221 +196 048013 014 006 000 03
221730 1646N 05244W 8435 01150 9608 +223 +193 046011 011 005 000 03
221800 1644N 05244W 8437 01154 9614 +220 +193 022012 012 003 000 03

[KWT]

Hopefully that is the case Derek, it is true that Bill should be getting something of a NNE/NE motion by that time.

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KWBC 182228
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 15 20090818
221830 1642N 05244W 8405 01194 9625 +206 +205 349010 011 999 999 03
221900 1640N 05243W 8426 01173 9623 +218 +197 315016 018 999 999 03
221930 1638N 05242W 8435 01164 9624 +217 +195 297021 024 023 000 03
222000 1637N 05241W 8399 01204 9627 +215 +197 285029 031 024 000 03
222030 1635N 05239W 8424 01182 9625 +232 +190 278034 038 027 000 03
222100 1635N 05237W 8440 01170 9626 +241 +188 266046 051 043 001 03
222130 1634N 05234W 8462 01150 9640 +211 +209 258055 057 046 001 03
222200 1635N 05232W 8436 01170 9634 +209 +209 244057 059 045 000 03
222230 1637N 05230W 8409 01191 9622 +218 +199 231055 057 043 000 03
222300 1639N 05228W 8437 01159 9619 +227 +195 213060 063 046 000 03
222330 1640N 05227W 8460 01143 9621 +237 +190 201073 075 051 001 03
222400 1643N 05225W 8419 01185 9621 +235 +191 193074 077 999 999 03
222430 1645N 05225W 8401 01199 9616 +230 +192 184064 070 054 003 03
222500 1647N 05226W 8129 01476 9599 +230 +167 173046 050 999 999 03
222530 1648N 05228W 7870 01754 9585 +230 +139 169030 032 015 000 03
222600 1648N 05230W 7755 01881 9584 +222 +129 158026 029 999 999 03
222630 1648N 05232W 7656 01993 9585 +213 +124 141019 022 999 999 03
222700 1648N 05235W 7538 02125 9586 +201 +123 131015 017 006 000 03
222730 1648N 05237W 7388 02297 9582 +191 +112 115009 010 006 000 03
222800 1648N 05239W 7233 02479 9572 +193 +092 084008 008 007 000 03

957.2 mb extrapolated

[Derek Ortt]

they're searching for mesovortices. That was one of this flight's objectives. That is why they dropped so low