ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[deltadog03]

sanibel, how do you figure its too far north? TCHP is still VERY high where its at now

[cycloneye]

OB 17

Winds in the 40s.

URNT15 KNHC 080518
AF306 0311A IDA HDOB 17 20091108
051030 2133N 08634W 8433 01563 0104 +161 +087 074029 030 029 005 00
051100 2132N 08633W 8429 01569 0105 +161 +084 078033 035 028 004 00
051130 2131N 08632W 8428 01568 0105 +160 +084 082032 033 029 003 00
051200 2130N 08630W 8430 01567 0102 +164 +086 084032 032 029 002 00
051230 2129N 08629W 8430 01569 0103 +163 +088 085033 033 033 001 00
051300 2128N 08628W 8428 01568 0101 +163 +092 081032 033 033 002 00
051330 2127N 08626W 8430 01566 0100 +165 +094 077032 032 035 001 00
051400 2126N 08625W 8430 01564 0100 +165 +097 075030 031 034 002 00
051430 2125N 08624W 8433 01563 0100 +161 +100 071031 032 032 001 03
051500 2124N 08622W 8431 01563 0097 +164 +102 076033 034 032 002 00
051530 2123N 08621W 8432 01560 0094 +169 +103 079035 036 033 002 00
051600 2122N 08620W 8428 01563 0096 +164 +105 082037 037 035 000 00
051630 2121N 08618W 8430 01562 0095 +163 +106 080035 037 037 003 00
051700 2119N 08617W 8433 01552 0107 +136 +107 074033 037 042 025 03
051730 2118N 08616W 8423 01563 0099 +148 +104 085042 044 038 013 00
051800 2118N 08615W 8422 01563 0093 +157 +100 086047 048 037 001 03
051830 2117N 08614W 8423 01564 0091 +160 +098 085046 047 038 002 00
051900 2116N 08613W 8433 01552 0088 +160 +098 084047 047 039 002 00
051930 2115N 08612W 8430 01554 0088 +164 +101 083046 047 041 000 00
052000 2114N 08610W 8425 01557 0084 +165 +103 083045 046 040 002 00

[gatorcane]

Is Evil Jeremy and I the only ones that think Ida has slowed down in forward speed and is moving WNW?

I checked it out and I see what you mean. I think she could be bumping up against the H5 ridge now pushing across the NGOM? There is no Bermuda High to steer her NW, I'm guessing that she has reached the NW periphery of the Central Caribbean ridge. Just a guess as to why she may be slowing down considerably and bending WNW. Here are the players at the H5 layer from NAM 00Z:

[Aric Dunn]

pretty large area of TS winds.. they are pretty far out..

[Sanibel]

It took too long to rebound and now it is nearly to the Gulf.


I think I see some arms trying to sprout from the center round CDO. We've all seen that before in strengthening storms improving their structure. You can just make out the eye:

[artist]

what time does the euro come out? Isn't it around this time or just a little later?

[lostsole]

Caught people off-guard is an understatement, hey Ivan, you going out to the beach to check out the waves tomorrow, I am going pompano fishing down by Portofino.

[cycloneye]

what time does the euro come out? Isn't it around this time or just a little later?

Around 2 AM EST.

[deltadog03]

gfdl and hwrf should be out soon

[PTPatrick]

I am watching. Folks still near the MS/AL border in the flood plane. Doubtful the wind direction will be optimal for a surge there esp if landfall is east of there, but winds could get nasty all along the coast with the gradient.

[artist]

thanks guys.

[Ivanhater]

Caught people off-guard is an understatement, hey Ivan, you going out to the beach to check out the waves tomorrow, I am going pompano fishing down by Portofino.

Might head out to the beach tomorrow to check it out. I'd imagine tomorrow people will become more aware of the situation.

artist the cmc gfdl and hwrf are out shortly, euro is out around 2 eastern time

[HURAKAN]

[Blown Away]

Is Evil Jeremy and I the only ones that think Ida has slowed down in forward speed and is moving WNW?

I checked it out and I see what you mean. I think she could be bumping up against the H5 ridge now pushing across the NGOM? There is no Bermuda High to steer her NW, I'm guessing that she has reached the NW periphery of the Central Caribbean ridge. Just a guess as to why she may be slowing down considerably and bending WNW. Here are the players at the H5 layer from NAM 00Z:

I have been waiting to see how Ida would respond to the ridge and on the WV the WNW is pretty clear, to me at least?? Also, the predicted BOC low doesn't look to impressive.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[cycloneye]

RECCO OBSERVATION 05

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 05:23Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 11
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 05

Observation Time: Sunday, 5:19Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 21.3N 86.2W
Location: 42 miles (68 km) to the ENE (76°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 1,520 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 80° at 46 knots (From the E at ~ 52.9 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 16°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 10°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
850 mb Surface Altitude: 1,486 geopotential meters

[Macrocane]

We've had 4 hours of very heavy rains the heaviest since the green alert was declared on wednesday, the rains of wednesday and thursday were related to Ida, yesterday's and today's rain is related to 96 E, I think it has made landfall in El Salvador very strong convection has developed over the country. I made the mistake of going outside and went to restaurant with some friends it was raining but not that much when we were taking the dinner the heavy rain began with some strong gusts and when I came back home it was a very hard task, driving under heavy rainfall is extremely dangerous, the streets seemd like little rivers and it was hard to see the other cars and the signals. The accumulated precipitation of the last 3 days was 2 to 4 times the average of the whole month and with today rain I think we may reach 5 or even 6 times the average. If the indirect effects of Ida and 96 E have produced all of this I can imagine what the direct effects of Hurricane Ida can do to the locations on its path. I have to accept that this has been an exciting and interesting week but I'm worried for the effects of this systems in Central America and all the other places that are going to be affected. My best wishes are with you and I will keep you updated with the evolution and effects of tha rains here. And now it's time to wait for the recon data to know the true intensity of Ida.

[Ivanhater]

00z Canadian

[Evil Jeremy]

What would such a slowdown mean for the future of Ida though?

[Aric Dunn]

on a side note
00z gfdl still brings it to a cat 3 in central gulf..

and landfall and pressure of 976mb central florida panhandle..

[Stormcenter]

With all due respect I have to see it (Ida striking as a hurricane)to believe it.

The models have been wacky all season concerning strength in 2009 so as
someone else posted the models are "For entertainment purposes only" when it comes
to predicting strength this season especially when you consider the waters are 70ish right now in the GOM.
Of course this is just my opinion.