ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[jinftl]

What situation? Model runs are not forecasts by themselves. They are pieces of the puzzle to consider. As of now, the NHC forecast for a 50mph or so extra-trop system is the situation. All for model review and analysis, but not forecasting off of them, esp. when they are 'panic-inducing' forecasts that contradict the NHC.

Caught people off-guard is an understatement, hey Ivan, you going out to the beach to check out the waves tomorrow, I am going pompano fishing down by Portofino.

Might head out to the beach tomorrow to check it out. I'd imagine tomorrow people will become more aware of the situation.

artist the cmc gfdl and hwrf are out shortly, euro is out around 2 eastern time

[JonathanBelles]

Any measure on how far out TS force winds are according to latest recon?

[cycloneye]

OB 18

Winds in the 50s.

URNT15 KNHC 080528
AF306 0311A IDA HDOB 18 20091108
052030 2113N 08609W 8430 01554 0083 +170 +106 084045 045 039 002 00
052100 2112N 08608W 8429 01555 0080 +170 +108 082043 044 038 002 00
052130 2111N 08607W 8432 01549 0079 +172 +110 083042 043 037 002 03
052200 2110N 08606W 8429 01551 0079 +170 +113 084044 044 038 002 03
052230 2109N 08605W 8434 01547 0076 +171 +115 082043 043 039 001 00
052300 2109N 08604W 8430 01548 0075 +172 +116 082043 044 040 002 00
052330 2108N 08603W 8426 01552 0074 +171 +118 081042 042 040 000 03
052400 2107N 08602W 8430 01549 0073 +172 +119 080041 041 036 002 00
052430 2105N 08601W 8428 01549 0072 +173 +120 078041 042 036 003 00
052500 2104N 08600W 8427 01549 0069 +175 +120 076040 041 039 002 00
052530 2103N 08559W 8432 01545 0069 +178 +121 073041 042 039 003 00
052600 2102N 08558W 8425 01550 0067 +180 +121 072042 044 039 001 00
052630 2101N 08557W 8433 01543 0065 +180 +122 074044 045 037 003 03
052700 2100N 08556W 8433 01542 0067 +176 +122 077046 046 041 003 00
052730 2058N 08555W 8425 01548 0067 +173 +121 077046 047 040 005 00
052800 2057N 08554W 8432 01542 0069 +170 +121 078047 047 041 004 03
052830 2056N 08553W 8430 01542 0070 +165 +120 076049 050 043 003 00
052900 2055N 08552W 8433 01539 0069 +165 +117 075051 052 044 004 00
052930 2054N 08551W 8425 01546 0067 +167 +115 073051 052 043 004 00
053000 2053N 08550W 8433 01536 0070 +162 +114 074053 054 043 004 00
$$

[Evil Jeremy]

00z GFDL shows landfall around Okaloosa County in the panhandle.

[Ivanhater]

What situation?

Caught people off-guard is an understatement, hey Ivan, you going out to the beach to check out the waves tomorrow, I am going pompano fishing down by Portofino.

Might head out to the beach tomorrow to check it out. I'd imagine tomorrow people will become more aware of the situation.

artist the cmc gfdl and hwrf are out shortly, euro is out around 2 eastern time

Really? A possible strong storm/hurricane making landfall.(As many models and mets show)

[Blown Away]

What would such a slowdown mean for the future of Ida though?

Gotta to think any delay will allow Ida to respond to the trough earlier before reaching the Panhandle.

[HURAKAN]

[Evil Jeremy]

What would such a slowdown mean for the future of Ida though?

Gotta to think any delay will allow Ida to respond to the trough earlier before reaching the Panhandle.

Meaning central Florida is back in play......

I hate this season. It can't make up its mind about anything. And, the latest model run won't reflect this slowdown, if it is more than just temporary.

[Sanibel]

Looks like an intensifying hurricane could be heading towards Cancun. The eye could be contracting right now.



Or it could be entering a weird track change or bump and continued on track.

[Evil Jeremy]

Any measure on how far out TS force winds are according to latest recon?

Farther than before, and more intense far out. Check the recon thread, it will tell you.

[Blown Away]

Looks like an intensifying hurricane could be heading towards Cancun. The eye could be contracting right now.



Or it could be entering a weird track change or bump and continued on track.

Aric, please keep updating that radar, thanks for all your posts and I know you have alot of studying.

[Sanibel]

Cancun live radar:



http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?70

[Aric Dunn]

radar is having hard time seeing out there.. but the well defined eye is a little elongated now.. but that is normal for hurricanes at this stage..

[jinftl]

When the NHC mentions this possibility, then we have something. As of 10pm, that dialogue was not part of their advisory. I do have faith that they are on top of this situation, so if anything merits a forecast change, they will let us know. Telling folks to prepare for something more at this point is irresponsible. People, especially those who have been through recent storms, have an emotional reaction to hearing a storm is coming. They don't interpret that as a 50 or 60 mph ts or gale....they think Ivan, Dennis, Katrina, etc. I respect your analysis of the models, but there is no need for panic. Folks have weathered much more than Ida is forecast to be right now. If that changes, of course it is time to prepare, but other than member of this board, I am not hearing talk of hurricane landfall by the NHC or any weather service.

What situation?

Might head out to the beach tomorrow to check it out. I'd imagine tomorrow people will become more aware of the situation.

artist the cmc gfdl and hwrf are out shortly, euro is out around 2 eastern time

Really? A possible strong storm/hurricane making landfall.(As many models and mets show)

[PTPatrick]

strength at landfall on GFDL?

[Aric Dunn]

I'll let you post that set.. pressure 1001mb winds 67kts.. winds are going up quite a bit.. for this a advisory..

[Evil Jeremy]

Category 2, don't know the exact speed.

[cycloneye]

OB 19

67 kts at flight level,57 kts at SMFR

URNT15 KNHC 080538
AF306 0311A IDA HDOB 19 20091108
053030 2052N 08549W 8429 01537 0070 +159 +113 075055 055 044 004 00
053100 2051N 08548W 8429 01540 0067 +162 +113 072054 055 045 005 00
053130 2050N 08547W 8433 01534 0064 +164 +112 072055 056 046 005 00
053200 2048N 08546W 8426 01539 0059 +170 +110 071053 054 046 005 00
053230 2047N 08545W 8429 01533 0057 +172 +108 069053 053 048 006 00
053300 2046N 08544W 8434 01530 0053 +175 +108 068052 053 049 001 00
053330 2045N 08543W 8427 01532 0050 +179 +108 067052 053 047 004 00
053400 2044N 08542W 8432 01527 0050 +180 +108 066051 052 047 005 00
053430 2043N 08541W 8432 01526 0046 +180 +110 065049 049 049 004 00
053500 2041N 08540W 8427 01528 0042 +181 +112 064048 049 050 002 00
053530 2040N 08539W 8426 01526 0038 +184 +113 057048 050 049 003 00
053600 2039N 08538W 8432 01521 0036 +183 +115 059053 056 048 004 00
053630 2038N 08537W 8431 01519 0036 +179 +117 064046 046 049 004 03
053700 2037N 08536W 8422 01523 0037 +171 +118 061048 049 049 003 03
053730 2035N 08535W 8429 01512 0037 +166 +117 062051 054 050 002 00
053800 2034N 08534W 8433 01507 0033 +165 +116 064057 059 051 004 00
053830 2033N 08533W 8431 01505 0026 +168 +114 071063 065 052 003 00
053900 2032N 08532W 8425 01505 0024 +160 +113 072065 067 053 006 00
053930 2031N 08531W 8430 01494 0023 +154 +111 073064 065 056 007 00
054000 2030N 08530W 8425 01497 0019 +156 +107 071067 067 057 007 00

[RattleMan]

URNT15 KNHC 080538
AF306 0311A IDA HDOB 19 20091108
053030 2052N 08549W 8429 01537 0070 +159 +113 075055 055 044 004 00
053100 2051N 08548W 8429 01540 0067 +162 +113 072054 055 045 005 00
053130 2050N 08547W 8433 01534 0064 +164 +112 072055 056 046 005 00
053200 2048N 08546W 8426 01539 0059 +170 +110 071053 054 046 005 00
053230 2047N 08545W 8429 01533 0057 +172 +108 069053 053 048 006 00
053300 2046N 08544W 8434 01530 0053 +175 +108 068052 053 049 001 00
053330 2045N 08543W 8427 01532 0050 +179 +108 067052 053 047 004 00
053400 2044N 08542W 8432 01527 0050 +180 +108 066051 052 047 005 00
053430 2043N 08541W 8432 01526 0046 +180 +110 065049 049 049 004 00
053500 2041N 08540W 8427 01528 0042 +181 +112 064048 049 050 002 00
053530 2040N 08539W 8426 01526 0038 +184 +113 057048 050 049 003 00
053600 2039N 08538W 8432 01521 0036 +183 +115 059053 056 048 004 00
053630 2038N 08537W 8431 01519 0036 +179 +117 064046 046 049 004 03
053700 2037N 08536W 8422 01523 0037 +171 +118 061048 049 049 003 03
053730 2035N 08535W 8429 01512 0037 +166 +117 062051 054 050 002 00
053800 2034N 08534W 8433 01507 0033 +165 +116 064057 059 051 004 00
053830 2033N 08533W 8431 01505 0026 +168 +114 071063 065 052 003 00
053900 2032N 08532W 8425 01505 0024 +160 +113 072065 067 053 006 00
053930 2031N 08531W 8430 01494 0023 +154 +111 073064 065 056 007 00
054000 2030N 08530W 8425 01497 0019 +156 +107 071067 067 057 007 00
$$
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Code: Select all

TIME        Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Dir, 30s mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   QC
05:30:30z   20°52'N   85°49'W   842.9 hPa   1537m   1007.0 hPa   15.9°C   11.3°C   75° @ 55kt     55kt   44kt   4mm   OK
05:31:00z   20°51'N   85°48'W   842.9 hPa   1540m   1006.7 hPa   16.2°C   11.3°C   72° @ 54kt     55kt   45kt   5mm   OK
05:31:30z   20°50'N   85°47'W   843.3 hPa   1534m   1006.4 hPa   16.4°C   11.2°C   72° @ 55kt     56kt   46kt   5mm   OK
05:32:00z   20°48'N   85°46'W   842.6 hPa   1539m   1005.9 hPa   17°C   11°C   71° @ 53kt     54kt   46kt   5mm   OK
05:32:30z   20°47'N   85°45'W   842.9 hPa   1533m   1005.7 hPa   17.2°C   10.8°C   69° @ 53kt     53kt   48kt   6mm   OK
05:33:00z   20°46'N   85°44'W   843.4 hPa   1530m   1005.3 hPa   17.5°C   10.8°C   68° @ 52kt     53kt   49kt   1mm   OK
05:33:30z   20°45'N   85°43'W   842.7 hPa   1532m   1005.0 hPa   17.9°C   10.8°C   67° @ 52kt     53kt   47kt   4mm   OK
05:34:00z   20°44'N   85°42'W   843.2 hPa   1527m   1005.0 hPa   18°C   10.8°C   66° @ 51kt     52kt   47kt   5mm   OK
05:34:30z   20°43'N   85°41'W   843.2 hPa   1526m   1004.6 hPa   18°C   11°C   65° @ 49kt     49kt   49kt   4mm   OK
05:35:00z   20°41'N   85°40'W   842.7 hPa   1528m   1004.2 hPa   18.1°C   11.2°C   64° @ 48kt     49kt   50kt   2mm   OK
05:35:30z   20°40'N   85°39'W   842.6 hPa   1526m   1003.8 hPa   18.4°C   11.3°C   57° @ 48kt     50kt   49kt   3mm   OK
05:36:00z   20°39'N   85°38'W   843.2 hPa   1521m   1003.6 hPa   18.3°C   11.5°C   59° @ 53kt     56kt   48kt   4mm   OK
05:36:30z   20°38'N   85°37'W   843.1 hPa   1519m   1003.6 hPa   17.9°C   11.7°C   64° @ 46kt     46kt   49kt   4mm   ?:SFMR
05:37:00z   20°37'N   85°36'W   842.2 hPa   1523m   1003.7 hPa   17.1°C   11.8°C   61° @ 48kt     49kt   49kt   3mm   ?:SFMR
05:37:30z   20°35'N   85°35'W   842.9 hPa   1512m   1003.7 hPa   16.6°C   11.7°C   62° @ 51kt     54kt   50kt   2mm   OK
05:38:00z   20°34'N   85°34'W   843.3 hPa   1507m   1003.3 hPa   16.5°C   11.6°C   64° @ 57kt     59kt   51kt   4mm   OK
05:38:30z   20°33'N   85°33'W   843.1 hPa   1505m   1002.6 hPa   16.8°C   11.4°C   71° @ 63kt     65kt   52kt   3mm   OK
05:39:00z   20°32'N   85°32'W   842.5 hPa   1505m   1002.4 hPa   16°C   11.3°C   72° @ 65kt     67kt   53kt   6mm   OK
05:39:30z   20°31'N   85°31'W   843.0 hPa   1494m   1002.3 hPa   15.4°C   11.1°C   73° @ 64kt     65kt   56kt   7mm   OK
05:40:00z   20°30'N   85°30'W   842.5 hPa   1497m   1001.9 hPa   15.6°C   10.7°C   71° @ 67kt     67kt   57kt   7mm   OK

Max:   20°52'N   85°49'W   843.4 hPa   1540m   1007 hPa   18.4°C   11.8°C   67kt   67kt   57kt   7mm   
Min:   20°30'N   85°30'W   842.2 hPa   1494m   1001.9 hPa   15.4°C   10.7°C   46kt   46kt   44kt   1mm   
Avg:   -------   --------   842.9 hPa   1522m   1004.3 hPa   17°C   11.2°C   54kt   55kt   49kt   4mm   
        Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   


[Aric Dunn]

winds are going quite a bit this advisory..

they are well outside the eye .. pressure 1001mb winds 67kts.. .. I would guess somewhere in the ball park of around
85mph