ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[cycloneye]

127
WHXX01 KWBC 101822
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1822 UTC MON AUG 10 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992009) 20090810 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090810 1800 090811 0600 090811 1800 090812 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 25.7W 15.7N 28.3W 16.6N 30.6W 17.1N 33.3W
BAMD 14.4N 25.7W 15.4N 27.2W 16.3N 28.8W 17.1N 30.8W
BAMM 14.4N 25.7W 15.7N 27.5W 16.8N 29.5W 17.6N 31.6W
LBAR 14.4N 25.7W 14.9N 27.5W 15.9N 29.6W 17.0N 31.8W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090812 1800 090813 1800 090814 1800 090815 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.7N 36.4W 18.8N 42.7W 20.2N 49.4W 21.9N 55.6W
BAMD 18.1N 33.2W 20.2N 37.8W 22.9N 40.7W 25.0N 40.5W
BAMM 18.6N 34.2W 20.6N 39.4W 23.0N 43.7W 25.2N 45.3W
LBAR 18.2N 34.1W 21.1N 38.5W 24.4N 41.1W 27.2N 40.9W
SHIP 38KTS 38KTS 32KTS 22KTS
DSHP 38KTS 38KTS 32KTS 22KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 25.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 14.3N LONM12 = 24.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 13.9N LONM24 = 22.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Gustywind]

127
WHXX01 KWBC 101822
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1822 UTC MON AUG 10 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992009) 20090810 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090810 1800 090811 0600 090811 1800 090812 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 25.7W 15.7N 28.3W 16.6N 30.6W 17.1N 33.3W
BAMD 14.4N 25.7W 15.4N 27.2W 16.3N 28.8W 17.1N 30.8W
BAMM 14.4N 25.7W 15.7N 27.5W 16.8N 29.5W 17.6N 31.6W
LBAR 14.4N 25.7W 14.9N 27.5W 15.9N 29.6W 17.0N 31.8W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090812 1800 090813 1800 090814 1800 090815 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.7N 36.4W 18.8N 42.7W 20.2N 49.4W 21.9N 55.6W
BAMD 18.1N 33.2W 20.2N 37.8W 22.9N 40.7W 25.0N 40.5W
BAMM 18.6N 34.2W 20.6N 39.4W 23.0N 43.7W 25.2N 45.3W
LBAR 18.2N 34.1W 21.1N 38.5W 24.4N 41.1W 27.2N 40.9W
SHIP 38KTS 38KTS 32KTS 22KTS
DSHP 38KTS 38KTS 32KTS 22KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 25.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 14.3N LONM12 = 24.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 13.9N LONM24 = 22.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Always straight west...

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TAFB forecast a westward moving tropical cyclone within 48 hours...

24 hours


48 hours


72 hours

[HURAKAN]

SAL continues to kill our systems.

[Aric Dunn]

well from the looks of it.. it has a strong surface feature and vigorous midlevel circ... all it needs is some moisture.

[HURAKAN]

Continues to look good.

[cycloneye]

What worries to one who lives in the NE Caribbean is the westward track it will take as long it does not develop.

[Aric Dunn]

here is some surface plots and Ascat overlay

[Aric Dunn]

and a closer up sat loop ..

[Gustywind]

Chris Dolce, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 10, 2009 2:12 pm ET
In the Atlantic, an area of low pressure is located just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity with this system has waned a bit since yesterday. If this low can keep collocated showers and thunderstorm as it moves westward, a tropical depression may form over the next couple of days.

The remainder of the Atlantic Basin remains quiet at this time.

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... ne_tracker

[Stormcenter]

99L is hurting big time right now.
By the way the potential threats (if there are any) this season for the Gulf coast folks will primarily
come from home brew systems IMO.

SAL continues to kill our systems.

[Aric Dunn]

and here is close up Infrared..

[Sanibel]

Since the disturbance over the Lessers came back to life I would say the Atlantic is slowly flickering on in terms of favorability so I would not write this one off. It could refire.

[HURAKAN]

Convection is weak but not nonexistent, it has a good circulation and we're in August. I ask the public to not give up on 99L just yet!

[Derek Ortt]

my patience with this thing is about to reach zero...

also, some here will not like this, but this is an experimental scheme from University of Albany... we may need to wait a long while for our next cyclone in the Atlantic if this verifies

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ro ... ecast.html

[wxman57]

The RAMMB/CIRA version has an elevated risk in the eastern Atlantic the next 24 hours.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... lantic.asp

[OuterBanker]

12z gfs is rather interesting. Not sure which system it is seeing though.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLoop.html

[HUC]

dereck,your link don't work for me...

[Derek Ortt]

try it again... works for me no problem (unless it is blocked outside of the met community... not sure)

you need to click on advance (for the top image, it shows the probability of a TC... not really anything until the end of the month)

[lester]

the link worked for me