EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA (13E)

[Irish27]

I live in Tucson and was wondering if the track of Jimena could shift more to the northeast and hit southern Arizona?

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

EP, 13, 2009083100, , BEST, 0, 167N, 1070W, 125, 940, HU

[HURAKAN]

Continues to have a very small eye

[pepeavilenho]

when is the nest discussion of NHC?
isn´t it at 3:00 UTC?
because now it's 3:22 UTC.

thanks!

[pepeavilenho]

when is the nest discussion of NHC?
isn´t it at 3:00 UTC?
because now it's 3:22 UTC.

thanks!

YEs they do, but its Only 125 UTC at the moment

oh!
hehe, that's true...I made a mistake, ?im sorry.
I'm going to bed so, because here in Spain is 3:29 am...

GOOD JOB MEN!!

[CrazyC83]

Looks to be hints of an outer eyewall in that shot...

[CrazyC83]

Would that lead make it stronger? or weaker?

Weaker in the short term, but possible middle term restrengthening as the conditions remain favorable for such. What is the latest SHIPS output - are the conditions still insane?

[LaBreeze]

Looks like the gates of hell are opening for the Baja.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Watch for Southern Baja California

TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JIMENA GROWS STRONGER...HURRICANE WATCH
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA....

A 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. THE WATCH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE
WEST COAST AROUND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD
TO SAN EVARISTO ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JIMENA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE
AREAS TONIGHT OR MONDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST OR ABOUT 255
MILES...410 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT
445 MILES...715 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH...
230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JIMENA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.0N 107.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 310238
TCDEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009

THE STRUCTURE OF JIMENA CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SMALL EYE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. OUTFLOW IS
EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND TOPS WITHIN THE CDO HAVE CONTINUED
TO COOL. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS WERE 6.5 FROM TAFB AND 6.0 FROM SAB AT
0000 UTC...AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CI-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN NEAR 6.5 FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THE INCREASING TREND IN THE SATELLITE
ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 125 KT. CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS JIMENA WILL
BE IN AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...IF AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OCCURS IT WOULD LIKELY HALT ANY
INTENSIFICATION...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. GIVEN THE LIMITED
PREDICTABILITY OF THESE INNER-CORE CHANGES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE SHORT-TERM. AROUND 48
HOURS...INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION
WITH LAND SHOULD CAUSE JIMENA TO WEAKEN. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK...AND HOW MUCH THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH LAND...INTRODUCES
ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY INTO THE INTENSITY FORECAST LATER IN THE
PERIOD.

JIMENA HAS CONTINUED TO EXHIBIT TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/06...A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN JIMENA
AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N 112W WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE HURRICANE. THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND THE GFS...NOGAPS...GFDL...GFDN...AND HWRF SUGGEST THAT
IT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL JIMENA NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS...INCLUDING THE
ECMWF...UKMET...AND CANADIAN WEAKEN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND
TURN JIMENA TOWARD THE WEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE. THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION 1800 UTC GFS PARALLEL
ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS THE MORE EASTWARD TRACK SCENARIO...WHILE THE
1200 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK.
HOWEVER...THERE IS LARGE SPREAD IN THE SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD
NORTH OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN POSITION...SUGGESTING THAT A
SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF THE MEMBERS HAVE A TRACK CLOSER TO BAJA. THE
MULTI-MODEL TRACK CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE MORE EASTWARD
SCENARIO...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST FOR THIS PACKAGE.

BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH
IS REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INDICATES THAT THERE IS CURRENTLY A
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LORETO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JIMENA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE
AREAS TONIGHT OR MONDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0300Z 17.0N 107.2W 125 KT
12HR VT 31/1200Z 17.8N 108.0W 130 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 19.2N 109.1W 130 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 21.3N 110.2W 125 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 23.4N 111.0W 120 KT
72HR VT 03/0000Z 27.0N 112.5W 65 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 04/0000Z 28.6N 113.5W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 05/0000Z 29.0N 115.0W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[CrazyC83]

Looks like the gates of hell are opening for the Baja.

I would not want to be in Cabo San Lucas or anywhere else on that peninsula.

No kidding! Not with a Category 4/5 hurricane barrelling down on them! (I personally believe this is close to, if not, Category 5 right now)

[hurricanebuoy]

We travel to Cabo at least once every year. The area is surrounded by mountains and desert, so lots of hard pan for water to run off and cauase severe flooding. THere is no where to run to there, being the pen,. isn't very wide. Lots of extremely poor people and then the filthy rich.

The effects of a direct hit will be devastating to the tip of Baja. God be with them all.

[HURAKAN]

The main problem in Baja California won't be the winds (very localized due to the size of the inner core) but the rain. Flash flooding could be deathly.

[CrazyC83]

The main problem in Baja California won't be the winds (very localized due to the size of the inner core) but the rain. Flash flooding could be deathly.

Structural changes in the storm could spread out the winds greatly though...

[Scorpion]

Looks like the gates of hell are opening for the Baja.

I would not want to be in Cabo San Lucas or anywhere else on that peninsula.

Haha, a chaser on Eastern is going right after it

[carolina_73]

Looks like the gates of hell are opening for the Baja.

I would not want to be in Cabo San Lucas or anywhere else on that peninsula.

Haha, a chaser on Eastern is going right after it

Which chaser is going to try and intercept Jimena? Do you have a link?

[Chacor]

Rare appearances for these cities in the NHC's wind speed probability forecast:

Code: Select all

  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - - 

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO 
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT                                                   

SAN DIEGO CA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
SAN DIEGO CA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

LONG BEACH/LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
LONG BEACH/LA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

[Andrew92]

I agree that flooding will be a major threat in Baja. One look at pictures from Hurricanes Juliette, Ignacio, and John from this decade and one is humbled fast by the amount of flooding that occurred in that part of the world.

I am most reminded of Hurricane Juliette of those three, except Juliette ultimately made landfall as a tropical storm (though still brought hurricane winds to Cabo San Lucas). I will be praying for everyone down there the next couple of days as they prepare for this storm.

I'm also not forgetting about Marty and Norbert, but I think they caused a little less flooding, but still very substantial.

-Andrew92

[Scorpion]

Which chaser is going to try and intercept Jimena? Do you have a link?

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php ... 208&st=260

[btangy]

Ensemble density from combined 12Z GFS, ECMWF, and CMC ensembles. Huge uncertainty, but short term motion favors the right side of the cone. HWRF has been performing the best so far.

[Andrew92]

If the HWRF verifies, PLEASE do not let this thing stall over Arizona! We need the rain, but flooding is not welcome in the desert.

-Andrew92