ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[cycloneye]

This is a belated posting of the 06z run of the bams.Is noted a shift to the west.

WHXX01 KWBC 280715
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0715 UTC FRI AUG 28 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20090828 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090828 0600 090828 1800 090829 0600 090829 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.2N 32.0W 11.1N 33.8W 12.1N 35.8W 13.2N 38.5W
BAMD 10.2N 32.0W 10.6N 34.0W 11.3N 36.1W 12.3N 38.2W
BAMM 10.2N 32.0W 10.5N 34.3W 11.1N 36.4W 12.1N 38.7W
LBAR 10.2N 32.0W 10.5N 35.2W 11.1N 38.6W 11.9N 42.1W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 43KTS 54KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 43KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090830 0600 090831 0600 090901 0600 090902 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 41.2W 14.4N 46.3W 13.8N 49.4W 14.1N 51.2W
BAMD 13.5N 40.2W 15.3N 43.5W 15.8N 45.6W 16.2N 48.1W
BAMM 13.2N 40.8W 14.5N 44.3W 14.5N 46.4W 14.7N 49.0W
LBAR 13.0N 45.4W 15.0N 51.3W 15.4N 54.5W 13.5N 55.0W
SHIP 64KTS 80KTS 90KTS 95KTS
DSHP 64KTS 80KTS 90KTS 95KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.2N LONCUR = 32.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 10.2N LONM12 = 28.1W DIRM12 = 269DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 24.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

What I see is 94L may bypass that upper low to the north and not make the recurve because is too far south.

[OURAGAN]

This upper low seems moving NE.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Initial glance looks like a recurve. I just looked at the 00Z GFS and long range ECMWF 00Z. GFS recurves this in a break in the subtropical ridge at 60W. ECMWF kindaof loses it but recurves it around the same place. Even over the next week, models are in general agreement of some slower than usual movement of this thing, indicating the Azores ridge is not quite as strong as it should be for this time of year. Remember how the ECMWF moved Bill more slowly than the other models? It was on to a weakness that is why.

For the record, I'm thinking this system misses the islands at this time....and recurves long before the CONUS. The year of recurves looks like it may continue. Something is going to need to develop in the Caribbean it looks like to impact any major land areas.....unless this pattern of weak ridging changes (it still can though but the door is slowly closing, especially after about Sept. 20th).

[Blown Away]

The TPC doesn't seem to be on board w/ the mid atlantic recurve.

[cycloneye]

06z GFDL

More west.

WHXX04 KWBC 281117
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 28

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.4 32.0 270./19.0
6 10.8 32.6 308./ 7.4
12 11.4 33.6 301./11.1
18 11.7 34.9 283./13.4
24 12.1 36.1 288./12.0
30 12.8 37.2 301./12.9
36 13.6 38.8 297./17.0
42 14.0 40.2 288./14.9
48 14.7 41.5 299./13.7
54 15.2 42.8 291./13.4
60 15.6 43.9 292./11.9
66 16.1 44.7 298./ 9.2
72 16.3 45.7 280./ 9.6
78 16.6 46.3 301./ 6.1
84 17.0 46.8 311./ 6.4
90 17.4 47.3 303./ 5.8
96 17.9 47.8 314./ 7.6
102 18.1 48.8 284./ 9.8
108 18.5 49.6 297./ 7.9
114 18.9 50.3 295./ 7.6
120 19.3 51.2 295./ 9.2
126 19.5 51.9 289./ 7.7

[HURAKAN]

More or less where the "center" appears to be

[HURAKAN]

All models will continue trending west as the storm doesn't develop

[perk]

All models will continue trending west as the storm doesn't develop

According to the models 94L will have to start to gaining some latitude in the next day or so.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 281152
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 355 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IS ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED
LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

06z GFDL animation.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Blown Away]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Initial glance looks like a recurve. I just looked at the 00Z GFS and long range ECMWF 00Z. GFS recurves this in a break in the subtropical ridge at 60W. ECMWF kindaof loses it but recurves it around the same place. Even over the next week, models are in general agreement of some slower than usual movement of this thing, indicating the Azores ridge is not quite as strong as it should be for this time of year. Remember how the ECMWF moved Bill more slowly than the other models? It was on to a weakness that is why.

For the record, I'm thinking this system misses the islands at this time....and recurves long before the CONUS. The year of recurves looks like it may continue. Something is going to need to develop in the Caribbean it looks like to impact any major land areas.....unless this pattern of weak ridging changes (it still can though but the door is slowly closing, especially after about Sept. 20th).

I'm not buying it will take 94L 7 days to reach 60W. In about 7 days the high starts to fill in the same weakness that is going to eject Danny. 94L should be somewhere between 60-70W at that time. If 94L gains enough latitude, say near 25N, 94L could go fishing or move towards the mid Atlantic. If 94L is near 20N at 60-70, then there are problems for the Caribbean and potentially SFL because that ridge will be building towards the SW. Please don't make any life decisions based on my opinion!

[cycloneye]

I see something interesting at the TWO and that is the miles from the CV islands.At 2 AM it was 450 miles and at 8 AM is 850 miles.Hmmmm,center relocation more west?

[HURAKAN]

Elongated center

[AtlanticWind]

:uarrow: I see something interesting at the TWO and that is the miles from the CV islands.At 2 AM it was 450 miles and at 8 AM is 850 miles.Hmmmm,center relocation more west?

Looking at the visable it does appear the center is now 36 west, moving faster than the models have been showing,and further south

[Blown Away]

:uarrow: I see something interesting at the TWO and that is the miles from the CV islands.At 2 AM it was 450 miles and at 8 AM is 850 miles.Hmmmm,center relocation more west?

Nice catch, shift everything say 400 miles West!! Throw the it will take 7 days to get to 60W GFS out, IMO.

[AtlanticWind]

Models seem lost on this system . 94L is moving rather quickly west at a low latitude and the models take it WNW at slower pace . Will have to wait to see when they can get a handle on this.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like it's trying to develop rainbands on the southern part of the center

[AtlanticWind]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE
FOCUSED AROUND A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 10N. THE CIMSS WAVETRAK GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MAXIMUM
AREA OF 850 MB VORTICITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS AS
WELL. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LOCATED W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
6N-12N BETWEEN 34W-40W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF AN ERN TROPICAL
ATLC UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 19N33W.

[otowntiger]

All models will continue trending west as the storm doesn't develop

That does seem to be the prevalent thinking on this board. But on the other hand if it doesn't develop and continue to move west and continues to not develop, ala Ana, then there's really nothing to worry about, right? The models have backed way off on developing this thing, according to Derek, and that is probably no coincidence. There may very well be solid reasoning for this thing not developing. For one we are in an el nino year. Shear could very well harrass this thing all its life. It may take the path that everyone dreads, but if its just an unorganized blob of thunderstorms when it gets there, then there's not much to get excited over.