ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Evil Jeremy]

The 5 day point on Erika from the NHC is close to a degree east of the end of their internal track from a few hours ago.

[otowntiger]

It really does "look" impressive for a TS.

I don't know, to me it really only looks to be as good as it's current designation. You can't see any obvious circulation. It does have an pretty sort of puffiness in that image. But really it just looks like a low range T.S.

[storms NC]

I think it will be a little more to the west. For one they keep it at a TS. So Weaker could move it a little more to the west before the curve out to sea.

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 012056
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 29 20090901
204700 1552N 05605W 9640 00408 0103 +211 +211 202038 040 031 001 00
204730 1552N 05603W 9644 00404 0104 +204 +204 203038 039 032 008 00
204800 1552N 05601W 9639 00406 0104 +188 +188 204031 034 044 014 00
204830 1552N 05558W 9649 00400 0105 +197 +191 194036 037 037 014 00
204900 1552N 05556W 9647 00404 0105 +208 +186 193035 036 032 008 00
204930 1552N 05554W 9645 00404 0103 +222 +183 186034 035 030 007 03
205000 1554N 05553W 9655 00394 0102 +221 +181 178036 037 999 999 03
205030 1555N 05553W 9647 00399 0099 +221 +180 179033 034 031 012 03
205100 1556N 05555W 9638 00407 0096 +226 +179 180036 037 034 014 00
205130 1557N 05556W 9646 00401 0101 +208 +179 189028 031 041 021 00
205200 1559N 05557W 9643 00402 0100 +204 +178 197029 035 046 028 00
205230 1600N 05559W 9635 00410 0099 +225 +175 205035 037 034 012 00
205300 1601N 05600W 9645 00400 0099 +217 +173 205034 035 036 007 00
205330 1602N 05601W 9643 00402 0098 +218 +171 201034 036 034 007 00
205400 1603N 05602W 9642 00402 0095 +228 +171 200033 033 034 005 00
205430 1605N 05603W 9645 00399 0094 +233 +171 198033 035 031 005 00
205500 1606N 05605W 9643 00401 0094 +235 +173 198037 038 031 003 00
205530 1607N 05606W 9647 00396 0093 +235 +177 195037 038 030 001 00
205600 1608N 05607W 9645 00398 0093 +234 +180 194036 037 031 001 00
205630 1609N 05608W 9643 00398 0092 +230 +182 190034 035 033 000 00
$$
;

[Evil Jeremy]

Well, the ABC 10, FOX 7, and CBS 4 channels all started off their 5 PM news programs with Erika. They create their graphics fast when it might affect SFL lol.

EDIT: ABC actually interrupted a broadcast of Dr. Phil to share the news. They are already jumping on the Erika bandwagon, even when their not reporting the news lol.

[Macrocane]

So the feeling I got about being the first tropical storm of September came true. It doesn't look that good I have to admit it, but at least looks better than Danny.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Strong convection continues to get closer to the center

[Comanche]

"It's going to hit Texas!" "NO, Iit's going to hit Florida!"

There, I thought I'd get that out of the way early! Hehehe

[jlauderdal]

The 5 day point on Erika from the NHC is close to a degree east of the end of their internal track from a few hours ago.

which internal track would that be?

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 012106
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 30 20090901
205700 1611N 05610W 9644 00398 0092 +228 +185 190033 034 033 000 00
205730 1612N 05611W 9643 00398 0091 +230 +188 194033 034 033 000 00
205800 1613N 05612W 9642 00398 0090 +230 +190 195032 032 032 000 00
205830 1614N 05613W 9647 00393 0089 +232 +192 199032 032 029 000 00
205900 1615N 05614W 9644 00397 0090 +232 +194 198032 033 029 000 00
205930 1617N 05616W 9643 00396 0089 +234 +195 197031 032 029 000 03
210000 1618N 05617W 9649 00390 0089 +234 +197 202033 033 030 000 00
210030 1619N 05618W 9644 00394 0088 +235 +198 203034 035 030 001 00
210100 1620N 05619W 9644 00394 0086 +234 +199 203032 033 030 000 00
210130 1621N 05620W 9650 00388 0085 +235 +200 204032 032 029 000 00
210200 1622N 05622W 9641 00396 0085 +234 +200 203032 033 030 000 00
210230 1624N 05623W 9648 00389 0085 +234 +201 203033 035 031 001 00
210300 1625N 05624W 9647 00390 0086 +230 +202 206030 033 032 001 00
210330 1626N 05625W 9647 00390 0086 +235 +201 213031 033 030 000 00
210400 1627N 05626W 9646 00393 0087 +235 +200 212030 032 031 000 03
210430 1628N 05628W 9642 00397 0087 +232 +200 212030 031 030 002 00
210500 1629N 05629W 9641 00397 0087 +232 +200 210032 033 030 003 00
210530 1630N 05630W 9651 00388 0088 +230 +199 211033 034 031 005 00
210600 1632N 05631W 9641 00397 0088 +230 +197 211034 035 031 004 00
210630 1633N 05632W 9646 00392 0087 +230 +197 213035 036 032 000 00
$$
;

[Category 5]

You can tell things have been slow this season. Look at all of the excitement for a TS.

Maybe it's the board's Atlantic bias...there's a monster named Jimena in the West Pacific and it's a safe bet that a bunch of people here aren't interested in it

Though I agree with your statement

[Blown Away]

The 5 day point on Erika from the NHC is close to a degree east of the end of their internal track from a few hours ago.

which internal track would that be?

The top secret double probation track.

[Jimsot]

So the feeling I got about being the first tropical storm of September came true. It doesn't look that good I have to admit it, but at least looks better than Danny.

I just want to know who created this:



Dopes!

If this stays sheared to the west we are hoping for just mostly rain here on Anguilla. We could use a few inches, the wind not so much.

[Bocadude85]

Looks like the NHC track is following the CMC

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_06.gif

[HURAKAN]

[CronkPSU]

"It's going to hit Texas!" "NO, Iit's going to hit Florida!"

There, I thought I'd get that out of the way early! Hehehe

it's going to hit both!!!!

[StormTracker]

White line will likely be the NHC track

Looks about right!!!

[deltadog03]

As, Hurakan pointed out, the LLC is VERY close to that very deep convection right now. Will be interesting to see if they can hook up or not.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

NHC has been outstanding with the tracks this season, even the five day ones. I'm going with them all the way on Erika, not even looking at models.