ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Sanibel]

Dropsonde in NW Quad recorded 89kt winds at the surface.

No surprise at all in contracting bursting eye.


What is that 103mph?

[HURAKAN]

[Hurricaneman]

These were some winds recorded in the Dropsonde in the NW Quad. Note the 89kts at the surface:


Significant Wind Levels...
Level
Wind Direction
Wind Speed
989mb (Surface)
40° (from the NE)
89 knots (102 mph)
984mb
45° (from the NE)
93 knots (107 mph)
976mb
35° (from the NE)
90 knots (104 mph)
967mb
40° (from the NE)
95 knots (109 mph)
959mb
45° (from the NE)
93 knots (107 mph)
951mb
50° (from the NE)
101 knots (116 mph)
939mb
55° (from the NE)
95 knots (109 mph)
931mb
55° (from the NE)
102 knots (117 mph)
905mb
60° (from the ENE)
108 knots (124 mph)
899mb
60° (from the ENE)
113 knots (130 mph)
883mb
75° (from the ENE)
105 knots (121 mph)
878mb
75° (from the ENE)
97 knots (112 mph)
873mb
70° (from the ENE)
94 knots (108 mph)
858mb
80° (from the E)
98 knots (113 mph)
843mb
85° (from the E)
83 knots (96 mph)

going off the bolded text, this is a cat 2 hurricane

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Heading back towards the center, winds are increasing

Not yet they won't head back toward the center until they are well north of the center.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

These were some winds recorded in the Dropsonde in the NW Quad. Note the 89kts at the surface:


Significant Wind Levels...
Level
Wind Direction
Wind Speed
989mb (Surface)
40° (from the NE)
89 knots (102 mph)
984mb
45° (from the NE)
93 knots (107 mph)
976mb
35° (from the NE)
90 knots (104 mph)
967mb
40° (from the NE)
95 knots (109 mph)
959mb
45° (from the NE)
93 knots (107 mph)
951mb
50° (from the NE)
101 knots (116 mph)
939mb
55° (from the NE)
95 knots (109 mph)
931mb
55° (from the NE)
102 knots (117 mph)
905mb
60° (from the ENE)
108 knots (124 mph)
899mb
60° (from the ENE)
113 knots (130 mph)
883mb
75° (from the ENE)
105 knots (121 mph)
878mb
75° (from the ENE)
97 knots (112 mph)
873mb
70° (from the ENE)
94 knots (108 mph)
858mb
80° (from the E)
98 knots (113 mph)
843mb
85° (from the E)
83 knots (96 mph)

going off the bolded text, this is a cat 2 hurricane

most likely just a gust not sustained winds but I could be wrong.

[Evil Jeremy]

Since it's almost 1:00 am here and I'm definitely not sleepy are there any new model runs coming out soon? When's the next advisory coming out from the NHC?

No new model runs coming up soon, at least no major ones. Next advisory in 2 hours.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080658
AF306 0311A IDA HDOB 27 20091108
065030 2020N 08419W 6970 03141 0084 +061 +046 162044 045 045 013 00
065100 2022N 08419W 6971 03136 0080 +063 +042 164040 042 045 008 00
065130 2024N 08419W 6965 03145 0065 +075 +038 168044 045 044 005 00
065200 2026N 08420W 6969 03137 0065 +074 +035 169048 051 043 005 00
065230 2028N 08420W 6963 03142 0077 +062 +033 162052 055 045 016 00
065300 2030N 08421W 6970 03135 0081 +059 +032 159050 053 046 024 00
065330 2032N 08421W 6976 03132 0088 +056 +031 149051 057 048 023 00
065400 2035N 08422W 6956 03157 0089 +057 +030 140044 048 047 017 00
065430 2037N 08422W 6978 03129 0095 +054 +029 142035 036 049 021 00
065500 2038N 08423W 6964 03148 0082 +064 +028 135035 037 046 014 00
065530 2040N 08423W 6969 03141 0075 +071 +026 134037 039 047 016 00
065600 2042N 08424W 6967 03143 0083 +066 +025 135040 041 046 013 00
065630 2044N 08424W 6973 03140 0085 +065 +024 131043 043 044 008 00
065700 2046N 08425W 6961 03157 0094 +059 +023 128038 039 042 010 00
065730 2048N 08425W 6967 03150 0088 +062 +022 128040 041 042 009 00
065800 2050N 08425W 6963 03152 0087 +064 +021 124037 038 041 009 00
065830 2052N 08426W 6968 03146 0080 +070 +021 127038 039 043 012 00
065900 2054N 08426W 6965 03152 0080 +071 +022 129039 041 043 012 00
065930 2056N 08427W 6963 03153 0085 +068 +023 132043 046 044 017 00
070000 2058N 08427W 6967 03153 0077 +074 +025 130044 046 048 014 00
$$
;

[Shawee]

EURO, on this run, is showing a 997mb IDA landfalling near new orleans. Given how the globals don't have a very high resolution with hurricanes, it will prolly be closer to what the hwrf and gfdl are showing. (near 975mb)

first the Canadians like coming to New Orleans, and now the Europeans... better cook more beans. Go Saints!

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

Was that a 113KT wind recorded at the 883 millibar level?

[Thunder44]

Dropsonde in NW Quad recorded 89kt winds at the surface.

No surprise at all in contracting bursting eye.


What is that 103mph?

102mph

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080708
AF306 0311A IDA HDOB 28 20091108
070030 2100N 08428W 6962 03156 0079 +070 +027 125054 062 048 020 00
070100 2102N 08428W 6987 03121 0083 +065 +029 129062 065 045 017 00
070130 2105N 08429W 6975 03133 0091 +058 +031 122058 060 044 011 00
070200 2107N 08429W 6961 03153 0098 +054 +031 117054 057 044 011 00
070230 2108N 08430W 6969 03145 0095 +058 +030 122051 052 046 013 00
070300 2110N 08430W 6972 03145 0106 +052 +030 120039 045 047 013 00
070330 2112N 08430W 6979 03133 0092 +060 +029 108038 041 045 011 00
070400 2114N 08431W 6968 03154 0101 +056 +029 101034 035 043 008 03
070430 2116N 08430W 6965 03157 0096 +061 +029 105031 032 999 999 03
070500 2115N 08429W 6967 03152 0098 +060 +030 105027 027 999 999 03
070530 2113N 08429W 6966 03155 0092 +063 +032 105031 034 039 011 03
070600 2113N 08432W 6969 03145 0090 +062 +033 107036 037 044 012 00
070630 2112N 08434W 6978 03133 0094 +058 +034 109036 040 045 018 03
070700 2111N 08436W 6953 03169 0091 +060 +034 099033 034 046 018 03
070730 2110N 08437W 6968 03147 0100 +054 +034 106043 048 041 015 00
070800 2109N 08439W 6965 03152 0078 +071 +034 124046 050 041 014 00
070830 2107N 08440W 6967 03148 0082 +067 +035 125044 046 040 013 00
070900 2106N 08441W 6967 03147 0083 +064 +036 126053 055 042 015 00
070930 2105N 08443W 6969 03140 0088 +058 +037 119053 055 043 017 00
071000 2104N 08444W 6975 03134 0082 +065 +038 129048 054 048 016 00
$$
;

[Sanibel]

That flat NNW edge is the reason for the slowdown and turn:

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

Could somebody interpret the 130mph vortex data message wind for the 883 millibar level? Is that a 113KT flight level wind?

[JonathanBelles]

New advisory package issued. New warnings and the mentioned slowdown.

[bahamaswx]

Definitely doesn't look like a 100mph storm.

[HURAKAN]

WTNT41 KNHC 080713
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IDA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
115 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO ADJUST THE SHORT-TERM
INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECAST OF IDA. BASED ON THE OBSERVED
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS RAISED TO 85 KT AT 12 AND 24 HOURS...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT IDA COULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THAT SOMETIME
TODAY. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FIX AROUND 0600 UTC...WHICH WAS
ABOUT A HALF A DEGREE TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST TRACK...THE TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS...INCREASING
THE LIKELIHOOD THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD IMPACT THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF
A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THIS
TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0715Z 20.2N 85.4W 80 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 21.1N 85.7W 85 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 22.8N 87.1W 85 KT
36HR VT 09/1200Z 25.4N 87.6W 75 KT
48HR VT 10/0000Z 27.7N 87.9W 60 KT
72HR VT 11/0000Z 30.0N 86.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 12/0000Z 29.0N 85.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080718
AF306 0311A IDA HDOB 29 20091108
071030 2102N 08445W 6965 03143 0086 +059 +038 123046 047 046 016 00
071100 2101N 08447W 6971 03139 0083 +061 +038 122051 054 044 016 00
071130 2100N 08448W 6978 03132 0079 +066 +039 136043 044 046 015 00
071200 2058N 08449W 6963 03148 0066 +073 +040 135042 043 047 010 00
071230 2057N 08451W 6970 03137 0067 +070 +040 137048 049 046 011 00
071300 2056N 08452W 6963 03142 0057 +075 +041 134049 049 047 011 00
071330 2055N 08453W 6970 03134 0053 +079 +041 132047 047 047 010 00
071400 2054N 08455W 6967 03132 0049 +079 +042 131046 048 047 010 00
071430 2052N 08456W 6970 03129 0043 +081 +044 127043 044 045 011 00
071500 2051N 08457W 6964 03129 0038 +083 +045 120041 042 045 009 00
071530 2050N 08459W 6970 03119 0040 +078 +046 115042 042 047 006 00
071600 2048N 08500W 6967 03124 0042 +075 +048 114043 044 048 006 00
071630 2047N 08502W 6967 03117 0047 +067 +048 112047 049 049 006 00
071700 2046N 08503W 6970 03115 0046 +066 +048 112052 054 051 008 00
071730 2044N 08505W 6961 03122 0044 +064 +048 112054 058 053 010 00
071800 2043N 08506W 6970 03107 0033 +069 +048 119053 055 054 009 00
071830 2042N 08507W 6965 03106 0038 +062 +048 117055 057 054 010 00
071900 2040N 08509W 6968 03100 0041 +056 +047 114052 055 054 015 00
071930 2039N 08510W 6970 03092 0034 +058 +047 113058 062 056 021 00
072000 2038N 08512W 6972 03085 0027 +058 +047 114062 064 058 029 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]