ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Tropics Guy]

Wow, that HWRF track and intensity is starting to look like 1992 all over.

Lets hope not................

TG

[Weatherboy1]

so what do we have here? A center consolidating more under the deepest convection or actual movement to the N a bit?

[HURAKAN]

By the way, the floater of Erika has not been updated in two hours.



Switching to Caribbean.

[Scorpion]

so what do we have here? A center consolidating more under the deepest convection or actual movement to the N a bit?

Consolidation.

[HURAKAN]

975
URNT15 KNHC 020006
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 48 20090901
235700 1734N 05707W 8393 01597 0083 +168 +137 125035 038 050 005 00
235730 1733N 05708W 8429 01554 0067 +185 +137 112028 031 037 003 00
235800 1731N 05709W 8427 01551 0058 +194 +138 129015 018 034 002 00
235830 1730N 05710W 8437 01540 0055 +199 +142 151009 010 023 001 03
235900 1728N 05711W 8430 01549 0046 +219 +146 263002 005 024 001 00
235930 1727N 05712W 8431 01550 0040 +232 +152 313010 013 023 000 00
000000 1726N 05713W 8433 01553 0048 +230 +158 308014 017 025 000 00
000030 1724N 05714W 8426 01569 0056 +228 +165 300015 017 021 000 03
000100 1724N 05715W 8423 01572 0058 +222 +170 307014 014 013 000 03
000130 1724N 05717W 8428 01566 0059 +220 +175 327015 016 018 000 03
000200 1723N 05718W 8431 01565 0062 +219 +178 338015 017 021 000 03
000230 1723N 05720W 8426 01573 0068 +212 +180 353017 018 019 000 00
000300 1723N 05722W 8433 01565 0070 +209 +182 356016 018 021 000 00
000330 1723N 05723W 8425 01577 0077 +201 +182 004016 017 025 000 03
000400 1723N 05725W 8432 01570 0079 +199 +181 360015 016 027 000 00
000430 1723N 05727W 8248 01765 0084 +187 +180 000016 017 026 002 03
000500 1723N 05729W 7921 02119 0092 +163 +163 006016 016 028 000 03
000530 1723N 05731W 7579 02481 9990 +138 +999 356012 015 031 000 05
000600 1723N 05733W 7247 02862 9990 +121 +999 342010 010 026 000 01
000630 1723N 05735W 6947 03223 9990 +112 +999 006013 014 026 000 01
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[deltadog03]

Hurakan, great work as always!! Can we use the NASA interactive site or no?

[Aric Dunn]

Wow, that HWRF track and intensity is starting to look like 1992 all over.

Lets hope not................

TG

actually more hugo or isabel

[HURAKAN]

Hurakan, great work as always!! Can we use the NASA interactive site or no?

It will be great if they had a link directly to Google Earth but I think you would have to put the satellite image in GE by hand.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Will be interesting to see if the rest of the models also turn more west. We shall know soon.

I imagine they will .. they all seem to follow each other pretty closely.. with the gfs bringing to florida and the bam models way west along with the NAM .. we should see things shif.

but its mostly because it has not moved much today and the timing has now changed so the trough is being able to move out before Erika get near the bahamas

Also, I think the key will be how strong high pressure nosing south from New England gets to be and how progressive it is. I tried searching for the synoptics for Andrew earlier today on the web but couldn't find it. It was a similar setup with a trough lifting out and high pressure building from the north. I'm sure with Andrew the high pressure was much stronger though then this high.

It sure was. Andrew was clipping along due west at 16-17mph for 3-4 days before landfall. Just don't think if a high does build in will not stick along very long due to the progressive pattern we have been in for the last month or so. But I guess things can change for a while like they were in June.

[deltadog03]

ah, ok...thanks bud!

[HURAKAN]

295
URNT15 KNHC 020016
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 49 20090902
000700 1722N 05737W 6683 03554 9990 +096 +999 357015 015 024 000 01
000730 1722N 05739W 6420 03885 9990 +081 +999 007016 017 026 000 05
000800 1722N 05741W 6194 04185 9990 +066 +999 008017 018 026 000 05
000830 1722N 05744W 5965 04465 9990 +044 +999 005018 019 027 000 01
000900 1722N 05746W 5749 04770 9990 +026 +999 011017 017 027 000 05
000930 1722N 05748W 5551 05071 9990 +006 +999 023016 017 030 000 05
001000 1722N 05750W 5366 05346 0293 -008 +999 026014 015 029 000 05
001030 1722N 05752W 5190 05608 0312 -023 +999 013014 015 029 000 05
001100 1722N 05755W 5017 05877 0332 -039 +999 007016 016 029 000 05
001130 1722N 05757W 4864 06126 0349 -059 +999 016016 016 029 000 01
001200 1721N 05759W 4725 06354 0364 -075 +999 026015 015 029 000 05
001230 1721N 05801W 4599 06555 0372 -078 +999 030021 023 029 000 05
001300 1721N 05803W 4478 06764 0388 -093 +999 024023 024 029 000 01
001330 1721N 05806W 4352 06990 0405 -111 +999 021024 025 031 000 05
001400 1721N 05808W 4231 07203 0419 -126 +999 017019 021 031 000 01
001430 1721N 05810W 4121 07403 0432 -133 +999 029017 017 030 000 01
001500 1721N 05813W 4027 07580 0444 -144 +999 027013 014 030 000 01
001530 1721N 05815W 3938 07751 0455 -158 +999 011009 010 028 000 01
001600 1720N 05817W 3920 07784 0455 -161 +999 018008 009 028 000 01
001630 1720N 05820W 3923 07774 0455 -165 +999 016009 009 031 000 01
$$
;

Now I really think they're leaving!

[ronjon]

Ah Hugo.

[cycloneye]

Yes,returning to ST Croix.

[HURAKAN]

254
URNT12 KNHC 020017
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL942009
A. 01/23:59:00Z
B. 17 deg 29 min N
057 deg 10 min W
C. 850 mb 1479 m
D. 50 kt
E. 033 deg 8 nm
F. 112 deg 47 kt
G. 018 deg 29 nm
H. 1004 mb
I. 17 C / 1523 m
J. 23 C / 1524 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 01BBA INVEST OB 16
MAX FL WIND 48 KT NW QUAD 21:54:00Z
;

[ronjon]

And Isabel:

[HURAKAN]

[ronjon]

And the A storm:

[HURAKAN]

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 76
A. 02/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0206A CYCLONE
C. 02/0400Z
D. 18.0N 58.0W
E. 02/0530Z TO 02/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Next mission leaves in 3 & a half hours

[xironman]

Looks like she has broken the habit of falling apart at every DMin