ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[artist]

They really need to fix this. the point east of Fort Meyers says 12AM THURSDAY!

that's the hook back to the se at the end.

[robbielyn]

I just carefully look at wv and that eye has stopped going nw it even look a tad ne and the eye is east of the projected track. And my eyes are wide awake as i slept all night and getting ready to work. This is the time to throw the models out the window and concentrate on what the storm is actually doing and looking at the synoptic setup. dry air will quickly entrain this system and shear it. no way it'll stay hurricane strength all the way to the north coast.

[KWT]

Yep a cat-2, just like Irene once again, I think the system will probably struggle to get any stronger with its current structure but we shall see...still Ida is a pretty decent late season hurricane regardless!

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all after only 4 hours of sleep A long day today tracking Ida is instore.Here is the Cancun radar at 5:47 AM EST.Nice eye and eyewall.

[KWT]

Looking very giood on there cycloneye,wesdtertn eyewall looks pretty potent!

Didn't think I'd be tracking a hurricane in an El nino November!

[Nimbus]

So it looks like the models all think Ida will roll up into a building ridge over the southeast and stalls?
If the ridge builds in west or southwest Ida stays out over the gulf and weakens as she churns.

[xironman]

Still looks like things will quite down as Ida comes into the northern gulf

[KWT]

Hmmm thats got to be a worry, looks like the lower shear follows Ida's path exactly there. That would buy Ida an awful lot longedr before the cooler shelf waters finally weaken it.

Looks like with lower shear the peak could yet happen in the southern gulf.

[cycloneye]

06z HWRF has landfall at Panhandle as a cat 2.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Kingarabian]

Looks like a one mess of a storm...

[cycloneye]

06z GFDL landfall is near Mobile as a cat 2

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[KWT]

Its got the same compact ball of convection that Irene had when it was in the SE gulf.

[O Town]

And she has a sad face. LOL

[Nimbus]

The moisture content over the gulf is ample for development but the sea surface temperatures are pretty marginal where Ida is expected to stall. It will be an interesting storm to track.

[KWT]

And she has a sad face. LOL

Thinking what it could have been if it hadn't hit land!

Anyway as Numbus has said this will be an interesting few days, 2009 has been a good season with regards to landfalling systems, lets hope Ida doesn't mess that all up.

[ocala]

And she has a sad face. LOL

That's funny. I didn't know what you meant by that until I looked at the image.



..Summary of 600 am CST information...
location...20.8n 85.7w
maximum sustained winds...90 mph
present movement...northwest or 325 degrees at 12 mph
minimum central pressure...983 mb

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 081143
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
600 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

...IDA APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN AND FROM
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND
CAYMAN ISLAND IS DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE MARINE AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES AND
WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...
115 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 85 MILES...
135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY...PASSING CLOSE TO
THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND IDA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE TODAY OR TONIGHT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
BY LATE MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.

A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

...SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.8N 85.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
900 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS

[jinftl]

Please forgive the quality of the photo i took (with cell phone), but i can confirm the satellite image below...the outermost cirrus stream from Ida is moving over southeast florida this morning.....made for a beautiful sunrise when mixed with the cotton ball clouds streaming in from the ocean on 30 mph winds...

[alan1961]

Two webcams of beaches on the Yucatan.
http://www.real.com.mx/Gran_Porto_Real/Webcam/
http://www.real.com.mx/The_Royal_Playa_Carmen/Webcam/

[Recurve]

Yes indeed, the fringes of Ida here. Winds off Key West sustained at 37 knots.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sanf1