ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Maybe, just maybe we are seeing the opposite of the last few storms. At first models with previous storms were saying west early then started shifting north day after day. Now we are starting to see a shift from north to west as time goes by. Will have to wait to see if this is a hiccup or a trend developing. In 48 hrs or so should have a real good idea.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

Winds up to 50kts.

AL, 06, 2009090200, , BEST, 0, 173N, 573W, 50, 1004, TS

[LCfromFL]

This shows the convection expanding...almost like a balloon inflating

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

[cycloneye]

Almost stationary

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0027 UTC WED SEP 2 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA (AL062009) 20090902 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090902 0000 090902 1200 090903 0000 090903 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 57.3W 18.2N 58.9W 19.3N 60.4W 20.3N 62.0W
BAMD 17.3N 57.3W 18.0N 58.7W 18.7N 60.1W 19.2N 61.2W
BAMM 17.3N 57.3W 18.0N 58.7W 18.8N 60.0W 19.5N 61.3W
LBAR 17.3N 57.3W 17.9N 58.3W 18.4N 59.6W 18.8N 61.1W
SHIP 50KTS 61KTS 69KTS 71KTS
DSHP 50KTS 61KTS 69KTS 71KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090904 0000 090905 0000 090906 0000 090907 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.1N 63.8W 23.1N 67.6W 25.1N 71.3W 27.2N 74.9W
BAMD 19.6N 62.3W 20.0N 64.6W 20.7N 67.1W 21.7N 70.1W
BAMM 20.0N 62.6W 21.3N 65.5W 23.0N 69.0W 24.9N 72.5W
LBAR 19.2N 62.8W 19.7N 66.2W 19.8N 69.1W 19.5N 71.3W
SHIP 72KTS 67KTS 57KTS 51KTS
DSHP 72KTS 67KTS 57KTS 51KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.3N LONCUR = 57.3W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 16.4N LONM12 = 56.6W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 15.6N LONM24 = 54.9W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 105NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 50NM

[OuterBanker]

I thought that the 18z gfdl put Erika at around 26.5 72.5 heading nw on the 7th. I do think that is too fast. But who knows. It also puts her at 960mb, rather scary for the east coast if that comes true.

[Derek Ortt]

some of the GFS shear is due to the model storm being in a different position than the NHC forecast. The real storm is in the outflow of the model storm

[HURAKAN]

Big difference:

[I-wall]

what really sucks.. is we only get one more image then we hit the eclipse..

What is the purpose of the eclipse? Anyone know?

[fasterdisaster]

Tropical Storm Tammy hit Georgia in 2005.

They may have to put up some hurricane warnings for the north islands if she keeps this up.

[cycloneye]

Big difference:

Yes,big implications for the northern Leewards as they may get more bad weather than was expected earlier.Also increases the chance that PR and VI have a TS watch.

[apocalypt-flyer]

It's not the only one. More and more models seem to shift Erika a little more to the west and they're starting to get more bull-ish in terms of strength.

It will be interesting to see whether the NHC will stick with their prediction in terms of strength.

[DESTRUCTION5]

some of the GFS shear is due to the model storm being in a different position than the NHC forecast. The real storm is in the outflow of the model storm

I see the 18z Can shifted WAY west as well...Anyone have the 18z NOGAPS?

[Derek Ortt]

we get many more images before the eclipse. I have had new images on nwhhc until 11:45 p.m. EDT

[jabber]

This shows the convection expanding...almost like a balloon inflating

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

That is very impressive. Amazing amount of energy.

[Derek Ortt]

It's not the only one. More and more models seem to shift Erika a little more to the west and they're starting to get more bull-ish in terms of strength.

It will be interesting to see whether the NHC will stick with their prediction in terms of strength.

GFS is simply totally in the clouds with regards to shear. If it cannot get the 0 hr shear right, I will chuck the entire shear forecast. Especially when the real storm is in the outflow of the model storm

[jaxfladude]

JMHO, but she looks be to getting that nasty "buzz-saw" look, Y or N?

[Aric Dunn]

some of the GFS shear is due to the model storm being in a different position than the NHC forecast. The real storm is in the outflow of the model storm

I see the 18z Can shifted WAY west as well...Anyone have the 18z NOGAPS?

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/index.html

its west as well and stronger..

[Dean4Storms]

Big difference:

I also see a due west shift in the overall system, you can say the LLC is moving WNW but I believe the deep convection that fires to the east either pulls it back or redevelops a new LLC, meanwhile I see no gain in Latitude in those two pics!

[OuterBanker]

Geez, the hwrf has it at 939 and 100kts. Further east and south of the gfdl. GFS still has it dissapated though which is odd since the gfdl is based on it. Nogaps doen't even see her.

[Aric Dunn]

i just feel like I need to keep saying this.. but seriously that is a massive convective burst slightly bigger than last night which i did not think would happen again..