ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Cookie]

Thanks for all the hard work guys on the updates and images etc. keep up the good work.

[cycloneye]

Two webcams of beaches on the Yucatan.
http://www.real.com.mx/Gran_Porto_Real/Webcam/
http://www.real.com.mx/The_Royal_Playa_Carmen/Webcam/

Alan,to let you know that I reposted those two web cams at the thread with sticky at the top of forum.If you find more cams,post them there.

[alan1961]

Two webcams of beaches on the Yucatan.
http://www.real.com.mx/Gran_Porto_Real/Webcam/
http://www.real.com.mx/The_Royal_Playa_Carmen/Webcam/

Alan,to let you know that I reposted those two web cams at the thread with sticky at the top of forum.If you find more cams,post them there.

ok cycloneye

[cycloneye]

Two webcams of beaches on the Yucatan.
http://www.real.com.mx/Gran_Porto_Real/Webcam/
http://www.real.com.mx/The_Royal_Playa_Carmen/Webcam/

Alan,to let you know that I reposted those two web cams at the thread with sticky at the top of forum.If you find more cams,post them there.

ok cycloneye

Those are very good cams.It looks like they are moving things for protection in that hotel .

[cycloneye]

Cancun radar that refreshes every 15 minutes.Nice eyewall wrapping around the eye.

[cycloneye]

The next mission will depart at 10 AM EST.

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 08/1800Z,09/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0411A IDA
C. 08/1500Z
D. 21.0N 86.0W
E. 08/1700Z TO 09/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[Sanibel]

Yeah, I thought that was the peak. It hit the ridge and stalled in the Channel. Weird storm.


Will this play out more east?

[tolakram]

Now a hurricane in the northern Gulf. I really think the NHC needs to hang onto this storm all the way to landfall, regardless of what kind of storm it is.

[Sanibel]

Another Wilma type stall in the Channel. The Gulf Stream will supply SST's under it.

[tolakram]

High speed visible.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Code: Select all

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-84&info=vis&zoom=1&width=3000&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=15

A shift more to the left means warmer water.

[cycloneye]

NHC needs to hang onto this storm all the way to landfall, regardless of what kind of storm it is.

Agreed.That may confuse many people in the gulf coast who dont know what is the difference between extratropical and tropical in terms of the effects.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Sanibel,
I think Ida's path will be more easterly than current models show. Look at the ridging/dry air building in from the west (central mexico into the gulf) under that other low in the western gulf. I can't see this system not being affected by that. "the wall" it can't go through. If it got north of that influence, then it could've kept going north with a little western component. But that stall seems to have made for a much tougher trip against that inluence as it builds in on the storm's west side. This will force a north or ne component only, by what appears to be already happening to the storm's western periphery.

[tolakram]

[HURAKAN]

Fresh from the oven

[Blown Away]

Wobbling back to the N or NNW, let's see if it is a trend.
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?70

[Emmett_Brown]

The synoptics are never the same for any 2 storms, but it could be argued that Wilma was in the first stages of extratropical transition when it crossed SFL, and it seemingly caused the storm to be even worse. Again, not directly comparing the track or strength of Ida to Wilma, just pointing out that there is usually a longer transition from Trop to ExTrop over the warmer GOM waters than there would be in the North Atlantic for example. So, I agree that the NHC is counting their chickens too soon regarding the transition, and should just assume the storm will be tropical until it actually transitions.

[Emmett_Brown]

Wobbling back to the N or NNW, let's see if it is a trend.
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?70

Certainly appears to be more NNW on the last couple frames of that loop.

[Blown Away]

Cloud tops warming a little and Ida's eyewall is not looking as potent on radar.

[marciacubed]

Wobbling back to the N or NNW, let's see if it is a trend.
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?70

Certainly appears to be more NNW on the last couple frames of that loop.

I agree it is going more N than NW in that loop I wonder if that is just a wobble or a definite move.

[jlauderdal]

The synoptics are never the same for any 2 storms, but it could be argued that Wilma was in the first stages of extratropical transition when it crossed SFL, and it seemingly caused the storm to be even worse. Again, not directly comparing the track or strength of Ida to Wilma, just pointing out that there is usually a longer transition from Trop to ExTrop over the warmer GOM waters than there would be in the North Atlantic for example. So, I agree that the NHC is counting their chickens too soon regarding the transition, and should just assume the storm will be tropical until it actually transitions.

They are in the business of making predictions not waiting until something happens in real time. They made their prediction and as always its subject to change but they don't get the luxury like we do of changing our thoughts every 5 minutes.